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Forums/Armchair-GM

#keepCarlson

Created by: Ssudzzy
Team: 2018-19 Washington Capitals
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 17, 2018
Published: Jun. 17, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
4$3,500,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
3$1,500,000
6$7,500,000
3$1,900,000
Trades
BUF
  1. Orpik, Brooks
Additional Details:
Rights to Grubauer
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2018
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2019
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2020
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
20$80,000,000$65,574,295$82,500$600,000$14,425,705
Left WingCentreRight Wing
$9,538,462$9,538,462
LW
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$3,900,000$3,900,000
C
UFA - 7
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RW
M-NTC
UFA - 7
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$6,700,000$6,700,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
LW
UFA - 1
$2,415,000$2,415,000
C
UFA - 5
$3,500,000$3,500,000
RW
UFA - 6
$650,000$650,000
LW
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
C, LW
UFA - 1
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C
UFA - 4
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
$1,275,000$1,275,000
LD
UFA - 5
$7,500,000$7,500,000
RD
UFA - 8
$6,100,000$6,100,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
$1,600,000$1,600,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
$5,750,000$5,750,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 3
$750,000$750,000
G
UFA - 1
$650,000$650,000
LD
UFA - 1
$1,900,000$1,900,000
LD
UFA - 4

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Jun. 17, 2018 at 6:33 p.m.
#1
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Absolutely not
TheRiddler liked this.
Jun. 17, 2018 at 6:34 p.m.
#2
Thread Starter
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Anything productive to say?
Jun. 17, 2018 at 7:19 p.m.
#3
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Not interested, I longer believe in Ullmark than in Grubauer. I personally saw how this guy develops in Sweden, then in America, Buffalo specially prepared this goalkeeper in the system, so that one day he became a starter, this moment will soon come.
Eli and wojme liked this.
Jun. 17, 2018 at 7:21 p.m.
#4
Who adds what?
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He's saying Buffalo is committed to their youth movement and have already announced that Ullmark will start for them in goal, and he's excited about it.

And that's fine. You've got enough cap space to keep Orpik, and you absolutely should: https://starsandsticks.com/2018/06/16/washington-capitals-brooks-orpik-deserves-hand/

Then trade Grubauer to a team that hasn't announced they're starting a rookie to keep from rushing their draft-based rebuild, and get about a 1st pick for him. Let Kempny walk. For goodness sakes sign Madison Bowey and Devante Smith-Pelly. Call up Ness. You're a couple cents under the cap.

Now, rather than type something new just because you did, I'll copy my analysis on why I am also for re-signing carlson, from @gordoncaps40 's thread, where he wasn't for keeping Carlson because he thought Carlson beneits from power play time. Her is what I came up with there:

At evens, he's only the 8th best offensive RHD. But to say that he benefits from power play time.... It's true, but I think the power play also benefits from him. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppPoints

At evens, regardless of handedness, he was 11th in the league in points this year: http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints

Last year he was in the 50s... http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points

You could argue either way, here. Green and Cole were both to 30 last year in ESP, but theyear before than Carson was 34th, and neither of them was in the top 50 (85th and 129th, respectively, placing them as 2nd and 3rd pairing guys that year, while Carson remained somewhere in the top pair range, given that there were 30 teams, with two top defensemen, for 60 starting defensemen. If we go back to 14-15, Carlson was 2nd in even strength points, behind Subban. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20142015&seasonTo=20142015&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points You have to go back five years, to 2013-14 to find Carlson slumping into second-pair even strength offense, ranking 10th with 14 ESP. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20132014&seasonTo=20132014&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points

Since then, he's consistently been a top pair guy at evens, although he's certainly bounced up and down within that range. But whether or not to sign Carlson isn't just about how good Carlson is. It's about who the other options are. The Caps can go with Niskanen and Bowey on the power play and be pretty good. But they need to add more offense at evens, and also add someoen who can eat a bunch of minutes. So they're looking at signing Green and Cole, who are two of the top five defensemen in UFA this summer. They could end up spending more to replace Carlson with two short tern deals than they would to just keep the guy who led the regular season and the playoffs in points and helped the Caps win the first Cup in their history. So I don't think that 8M/year is going to be incredible vaue on its own. i just don't see a better way to spend it. I mean... is there some way they can sign Green, Cole, and Tavares? That might be interesting, but I don't think they have the cap space.
GMTD liked this.
Jun. 17, 2018 at 10:11 p.m.
#5
Eichel Tower
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Quoting: Eli
He's saying Buffalo is committed to their youth movement and have already announced that Ullmark will start for them in goal, and he's excited about it.

And that's fine. You've got enough cap space to keep Orpik, and you absolutely should: https://starsandsticks.com/2018/06/16/washington-capitals-brooks-orpik-deserves-hand/

Then trade Grubauer to a team that hasn't announced they're starting a rookie to keep from rushing their draft-based rebuild, and get about a 1st pick for him. Let Kempny walk. For goodness sakes sign Madison Bowey and Devante Smith-Pelly. Call up Ness. You're a couple cents under the cap.

Now, rather than type something new just because you did, I'll copy my analysis on why I am also for re-signing carlson, from @gordoncaps40 's thread, where he wasn't for keeping Carlson because he thought Carlson beneits from power play time. Her is what I came up with there:

At evens, he's only the 8th best offensive RHD. But to say that he benefits from power play time.... It's true, but I think the power play also benefits from him. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppPoints

At evens, regardless of handedness, he was 11th in the league in points this year: http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints

Last year he was in the 50s... http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20162017&seasonTo=20162017&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points

You could argue either way, here. Green and Cole were both to 30 last year in ESP, but theyear before than Carson was 34th, and neither of them was in the top 50 (85th and 129th, respectively, placing them as 2nd and 3rd pairing guys that year, while Carson remained somewhere in the top pair range, given that there were 30 teams, with two top defensemen, for 60 starting defensemen. If we go back to 14-15, Carlson was 2nd in even strength points, behind Subban. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20142015&seasonTo=20142015&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points You have to go back five years, to 2013-14 to find Carlson slumping into second-pair even strength offense, ranking 10th with 14 ESP. http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?report=skaterpoints&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20132014&seasonTo=20132014&gameType=2&position=D&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,40&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=evPoints,points

Since then, he's consistently been a top pair guy at evens, although he's certainly bounced up and down within that range. But whether or not to sign Carlson isn't just about how good Carlson is. It's about who the other options are. The Caps can go with Niskanen and Bowey on the power play and be pretty good. But they need to add more offense at evens, and also add someoen who can eat a bunch of minutes. So they're looking at signing Green and Cole, who are two of the top five defensemen in UFA this summer. They could end up spending more to replace Carlson with two short tern deals than they would to just keep the guy who led the regular season and the playoffs in points and helped the Caps win the first Cup in their history. So I don't think that 8M/year is going to be incredible vaue on its own. i just don't see a better way to spend it. I mean... is there some way they can sign Green, Cole, and Tavares? That might be interesting, but I don't think they have the cap space.


You are cheating again, no one wants to dwell on facts!!! They only cloud our biased beliefs and make us feel more strongly about our unsubstantiated outlook.
Eli liked this.
Jun. 17, 2018 at 10:15 p.m.
#6
Who adds what?
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Quoting: GMTD
You are cheating again, no one wants to dwell on facts!!! They only cloud our biased beliefs and make us feel more strongly about our unsubstantiated outlook.


What's rough about the numbers above is that for someone who bounces all around the top sixty defensemen, if they had offered him a six year by six million extension a year ago, he should have totally signed it. But at the same time, guys who do well in the playoffs are guys who do well under pressure, and if the pressure of an upcoming contract helped Carlson perform, and that wait and see approach helped him win the Cup... it'll be $32M extra well spent. Confused
GMTD liked this.
Jun. 17, 2018 at 10:28 p.m.
#7
Eichel Tower
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Quoting: Eli
What's rough about the numbers above is that for someone who bounces all around the top sixty defensemen, if they had offered him a six year by six million extension a year ago, he should have totally signed it. But at the same time, guys who do well in the playoffs are guys who do well under pressure, and if the pressure of an upcoming contract helped Carlson perform, and that wait and see approach helped him win the Cup... it'll be $32M extra well spent. Confused


I have done several iterations of this team. This is now my favorite. I think all of the trades are fair, the gets picks and prospects and signs 3 1st class free agents. The defense and top six are awesome. Goal tending is a huge unknown. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/143421&post_id=492797
This is an interesting article http://buffalonews.com/2018/06/15/view-from-sweden-rasmus-dahlin-sabres-nhl-draft/ it clearly mentions the importance of an NHL mentor to shepherd the young defense men through the 1st year. I know these deals will never happen but it sure would make for a great team now and provide a great foundation for the future.
 
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