Two top 4 D, a top 6 F (All under the age of 27), a first, and an LTIR cap hit for Karlsson and a horrible contract? Not a chance Vegas makes this move.

I really don’t understand why everyone keeps thinking an EK trade makes sense at this point for us. Losing Theodore, Tuch, Miller, etc. for EK and Ryan doesn’t make our team any better. I’m seriously tired of these trades when there are plenty of other trades that could be made to actually improve our chances of competing. I don’t mean to be negative toward the poster or the value, it’s just that I’m tired of people trying this scenario.

Carrying it one step further, I don't think Las Vegas should exchange this package for Karlsson, Duchene, Dzingel and Stone. But then, I'm an extremist.

Vegas does improve in the short term here, but with how little leverage Dorion has, I'm sure you could get EK for less. Also, don't play guys on their off sides.



Talent quality is vastly more important than talent quantity for two reasons:
1. You only get to play 20 players, so any loss of quantity is partially balanced by the contributions of the players who replace them. This is especially true for Vegas, where they have a couple CHLers who could contribute next year.
2. A team's best player affects its results more than its worst player. Put differently: it's more important to have the best player on the ice than it is to not have the worst player on the ice. Given that EK came back, they only lost the strong link for their third pair, which isn't a big loss for how much of an upgrade EK is as the strong link for the top pair.
Taken together, these mean that it's nearly always a good idea to trade talent quantity for talent quality.

The first is nothing. Once you're out of the top 15-20, firsts aren't any better than any other pick. This team is not picking in the top-20.

27 is a pretty arbitrary age cutoff. Players peak at age 24 and plateau until 30, in general.


Vegas's core (Marchessault, Smith, Haula, Schmidt, Karlsson) is pretty much all in its prime with only a few years until decline starts (Marchessault, Smith and Schmidt are all 27). Their window is actually pretty limited. Smart play for Vegas is to go all-in with the cap space it has in the time it has left with this core, and EK's the strongest link on the market right now.

That said, I think OTT would prefer Glass/Suzuki to Miller right now. They want prospects more than guys already in their prime.

Miller, Theodore, Tuch and a 1st for that package would be absolute robbery for Vegas, even if you're as high on Theodore and Miler as is in any way reasonable.That's a #1D, a top-pair D, a top-6 F and a nothing first for a Norris contender, a low top-line F, a high top-line F, and a 3rd line forward. That's robbery.

Players enter their primes at 27 and decline usually around 33/34. 24 year old players are still developing. This trade forces Vegas to bump lower quality players into the line up. Merrill was a healthy scratch majority of the playoffs. Lindberg and Tatar struggled, you bump up Nosek to the 3rd line and suddenly there's more holes because of the trade. It creates more holes for Vegas to fill.

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

There's a huge body of work in aging curves, and it all points to the same conclusion: players peak at 23-25 (usually 24) and begin to decline at 30, with a risk of complete collapse in their mid-30s. You are wrong about aging.

Glass and Suzuki should realistically be playing ahead of Nosek and Lindberg. Tatar is coming off of a solid 20-goal campaign, and getting a big upgrade in quality of teammates. Nosek-Bellemare-Reaves was a solid 4th line for Vegas, especially in the playoffs, and Lindberg's results were fine for a 4th liner.

I just happened to come back into here and saw like 14 replies in this thread lol. I’m surprised by how much came out of my comment.
Now, my philosophy for how I think this team should go about this season is, as UltimatePielord said, we should go all in and chase the cup while our Fleury window is open. Yes, I’ve seen countless people say that he will likely play until he’s forty-plus years old but I’m not sure his active goalkeeping will allow him to play at a serviceable level for more than maybe 3-4 seasons. I think after that he will start to drop of drastically sort of like what’s happening with Pekka Rinne. We are similar to Nashville in that they built up their team with big name players (Subban, Josi, Johansen etc.) and really good youngsters (Forsberg, Arvidsson, etc.) to push for the cup while Pekka Rinne is “too good right now”. We should follow that line of thinking.
As for our lines, the first line is already set in stone. The second line is likely Tatar-Stastny-Tuch as Gallant wants Tatar to have two steady linemates to play along side him night-in-night-out. The third line of Haula-Eakin-? Is where we need to make some moves. Eakin had good production last year, but I’d want Haula to play center to get as close as he can to producing like he did last year. In terms of the third line we have plenty of depth forwards like Carpenter, Lindberg, Pirri, etc. to play the 3rd line RW but none of them brings me confidence to produce there. I’d personally prefer to move Eakin in a trade to clear a spot for Haula at center and acquire players to play on the wings. I’d love a Dzingel-Haula-Chiasson third line for example. The fourth line is also set in stone. On defense, the left side is loaded with Schmidt, Theodore and McNabb. The right side needs another Top4 D to fit between Miller, Engelland and Holden. Someone like Faulk would obviously fit in that role for example. In goal we have great depth behind MAF and a good almost ready prospect pool. Glass and Suzuki really could use a season in the minors to be ready for the NHL and Brännström/Hague could crack into the lineup late in the season as depth guys. Lastly, we also need some cap space to extend and re-sign a lot of players and manage depth. Sorry for the novel, thanks!

I don't think Vegas's window is really defined by Flower. Last year was the only year he's been anything more than a respectable starter, and Subban's coming off a pretty decent year for a backup. Realistically I'd say their tending will be pretty constant for the next few years. The bigger concern is Corsi God and co. in front of him: Vegas has a lot of core guys in their late 20s.

Linewise, I don't think Haula's any worse on the wing than at C. He had better corsi numbers his last year in Minnesota, and the difference in shot rates appears to be mostly down to less TOI. And with Haula at 3LW, you don't need a big gun at 3RW. Carpenter/Lindberg is probably fine, though I'd like to see Glass/Suzuki get a shot. McNabb-Schmidt was fine all last year, even if Nate was playing his off side, that pairing was solid for Vegas in a defensive role. Faulk's an offensive monster who could do really well in a scoring role with Shea Theodore, but that statement applies to Miller as well, and Faulk is not a good option as a shutdown guy.

In this trade scenario, extensions aren't a huge concern, since Schmidt's the only major extension necessary. WK needs one, but the odds of him commanding much more than that are not good, and the rest of the ones required are replaceable depth pieces.

There's no bigger add than EK that they can make, and they could use a big add.

Suzuki played one AHL playoff game and got benched, I think he's another year out. Glass is realistic, but still, too many holes for Vegas to fill and not enough depth for them to do it.

Only hole up front is 3RW. Glass can probably do it, but even Lindberg or Carpenter coud handle it, since Haula can carry the line a bit. Not a big concern.

On D, the top-2 pairs are carried easily by their RDs. Engelland playing is unfortunate, but that was happening without the trade, so no points lost for it.

Let's not forget the 3rd liner playing 1RW.... Too many holes, and the team just gets way slower up front. It just doesn't make sense.

Bobby Ryan's 6.72 GAR/82 last year would've been 5th best on the Habs or Blue Jackets among forwards. He's a fine, if unspectacular 2nd liner with an awful contract, but that's fine alongside linemates as good as Marchessault and Karlsson.

But the speed man, he slows them down. Tatar slowed them down, Ryan will too. They need to maintain the speed if they want a playoff spot.

Speed < Results 100% of the time. You don't win by having fast players, or having big players. You win by having good players.

Good players can utilize stretch passes and pushing the defense back creating more room in the neutral zone, that requires speed.

Oh yeah, but there are other ways to get entries and chances. Those'll show up in a player's results. If a guy's good, he's good, no matter how he does it.

After we missed on Riley Nash, I have been posting Las Vegas scenarios with either Dzingel or Chiasson at #3 RW (although Dzingel might be better at #2 with Tuch moving down). BOTH of them would be my nirvana.

Tuch > Dzingel. More shots, better chances. He was pretty unlucky last year: 20-30g is pretty much the range he'll have next year, and I'd be surprised to see Dzingel break 20 again, much less hit 25.

Also Claesson sucks