Quoting: leemos27
I read that post. Kudos to your diligent research, however, I would argue two things...
1) You said assuming there is no cap inflation which there is. It is cap % that is important.. Not actual dollars. At Eichels same cap %, Matthews would make $10,863,950... Now.. Eichel signed after a 64 point season (on pace for about 80 points) Matthews has proven to better than that.. Significantly. Matthews is guarenteed 11 at the absolute lowest!!
2) Guys have improved since you wrote that piece. Marner is currently on pace for 111 points..... Now even if he only gets 90 points. That already puts him in the Draisaitl, Benn, Kucherov conversation... And to my cap percentage point from before, we would be lucky to get him for 9million
Yeah the whole post was to find out without inflation their price, then you can apply the inflation. That puts matthews at 11 minimum, which I agree with, and Marner at 6.75 (NCI as of last year). If you take Marners last year NCI and add inflation, that comes to ~7.25-7.5. Add in his obvious improvement and that comes to 8-8.5, which is exactly where I think he lands. It is why I have always said the rule is Nylander +1-1.5 mil for Marner. Also, if you are looking for a discount, it will be Marner (not that I would want to rely on one). Look at his ELC, the last time a 4th ovr pick did not get max contract was before the last lockout, which might have had different elc rules so it may very well have still been a max contract then too. He has shown a willingness to work with the team, and that helps to keep it down.
With his stats, and cap inflation, I cannot undestand how anyone thinks he is getting 9+ aav. You have to remember that Nylander is just one step back from marner, and he got 6.962. And lets be real here, the only reason he is a step back is because he hasn't played this year, at the end of last season, they were very very very close. We will have to see, but I cannot fathom a contract above 8.5, in fact my money is closer to 8-8.25 as the final for him.
Also got to love the 1 star salt from people who refuse to read stats lol. gotta love that.