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Forums/Armchair-GM

Leafs cap next year

Created by: Random2152
Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Dec. 2, 2018
Published: Dec. 2, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Over roster limit (and therefore cap) to show Sandin getting a tryout. Likely gets a few games and sent down in favour of Rosen.

I think with JT's hit and the injury (plus a few other things I've beat to death on these forums), I think Matthews gets a max of 11.34 and Marner a max of 8.5.

Matthews = Eichel + inflation + a bit
Marner = Nylander + 1m + JT Inflator
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$1,500,000
2$2,750,000
8$8,500,000
8$11,340,000
2$1,500,000
1$975,000
1$850,000
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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Logo of the EDM
Logo of the SJS
2021
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Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
24$82,500,000$77,215,699$0$532,500$5,284,301

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,750,000$2,750,000
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,340,000$11,340,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,250,000$2,250,000
RW, LW
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$8,500,000$8,500,000
RW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$700,000$700,000
LW, C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
C
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$2,100,000$2,100,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$767,500$767,500 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RD
UFA
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$4,500,000$4,500,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$850,000$850,000
G
UFA - 1
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$975,000$975,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,300,000$5,300,000
RW
M-NTC, NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$675,000$675,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$925,000$925,000
LW, RW
RFA - 1

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Dec. 2, 2018 at 12:24 p.m.
#1
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Matthews better than Eichel no doubt about that
Dec. 2, 2018 at 12:24 p.m.
#2
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It would be an amazing deal to get Matthews for 11.34. I know his injuries present some argument, but the guy is a goal per game. I would be happy with 12.34 hahaha. Marner is also looking like he could get closer to 9-10. Dubas is going to have some tough negotiations ahead to keep everyone together, but I think it is doable
Dec. 2, 2018 at 12:25 p.m.
#3
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Quoting: Phil2893
Matthews better than Eichel no doubt about that


yeah, thats why its eichel + cap + more. The difference is not as large as some would think however.
Here are the stats for you (go to bottom of desc.)
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206
Phil2893 liked this.
Dec. 2, 2018 at 12:29 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: leemos27
It would be an amazing deal to get Matthews for 11.34. I know his injuries present some argument, but the guy is a goal per game. I would be happy with 12.34 hahaha. Marner is also looking like he could get closer to 9-10. Dubas is going to have some tough negotiations ahead to keep everyone together, but I think it is doable


I cannot see Marner that high. The (media) hype around this team is real and every time someone does anything remotely competent their value triples according to the site. For real Marner's value on this site has gone up at an average of $1000 an hour since the start of the season. Its absurd. Its why we were joking that the asst. coach will get 6 million, because everyones values are high.
I will link this here, as it shows all of their stats up to the start of this year (was made in summer). Marner has improved his stock since, but you have to think that Nylander would not be overly far behind had he been here, especially with Matthews hot start.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206
Dec. 2, 2018 at 12:48 p.m.
#5
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Quoting: Random2152
I cannot see Marner that high. The (media) hype around this team is real and every time someone does anything remotely competent their value triples according to the site. For real Marner's value on this site has gone up at an average of $1000 an hour since the start of the season. Its absurd. Its why we were joking that the asst. coach will get 6 million, because everyones values are high.
I will link this here, as it shows all of their stats up to the start of this year (was made in summer). Marner has improved his stock since, but you have to think that Nylander would not be overly far behind had he been here, especially with Matthews hot start.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206


I read that post. Kudos to your diligent research, however, I would argue two things...

1) You said assuming there is no cap inflation which there is. It is cap % that is important.. Not actual dollars. At Eichels same cap %, Matthews would make $10,863,950... Now.. Eichel signed after a 64 point season (on pace for about 80 points) Matthews has proven to better than that.. Significantly. Matthews is guarenteed 11 at the absolute lowest!!

2) Guys have improved since you wrote that piece. Marner is currently on pace for 111 points..... Now even if he only gets 90 points. That already puts him in the Draisaitl, Benn, Kucherov conversation... And to my cap percentage point from before, we would be lucky to get him for 9million
Dec. 2, 2018 at 12:58 p.m.
#6
Bcarlo25
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eichel should not be brought up in matthews negotiations, unless it is to say "matthews should get at least 2.5 million more than him."

matthews gets more, marner gets more, kapanen gets more.
Dec. 2, 2018 at 2:11 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
eichel should not be brought up in matthews negotiations, unless it is to say "matthews should get at least 2.5 million more than him."

matthews gets more, marner gets more, kapanen gets more.


I have shown you the stats, you refuse to read them. Your wilful ignorance on the topic combined with your 'certain' attitude towards your opinions is beyond hilarious.
Just for one more time: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206
It will be re done near seasons end with updated stats and such, so I guess it will be the 2nd last time you see it.
Dec. 2, 2018 at 2:18 p.m.
#8
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Random2152
I have shown you the stats, you refuse to read them. Your wilful ignorance on the topic combined with your 'certain' attitude towards your opinions is beyond hilarious.
Just for one more time: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/884206
It will be re done near seasons end with updated stats and such, so I guess it will be the 2nd last time you see it.


I read them. They’re moronic. Did eichel lead the nhl in goals per game?
Dec. 2, 2018 at 2:19 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: leemos27
I read that post. Kudos to your diligent research, however, I would argue two things...

1) You said assuming there is no cap inflation which there is. It is cap % that is important.. Not actual dollars. At Eichels same cap %, Matthews would make $10,863,950... Now.. Eichel signed after a 64 point season (on pace for about 80 points) Matthews has proven to better than that.. Significantly. Matthews is guarenteed 11 at the absolute lowest!!

2) Guys have improved since you wrote that piece. Marner is currently on pace for 111 points..... Now even if he only gets 90 points. That already puts him in the Draisaitl, Benn, Kucherov conversation... And to my cap percentage point from before, we would be lucky to get him for 9million


Yeah the whole post was to find out without inflation their price, then you can apply the inflation. That puts matthews at 11 minimum, which I agree with, and Marner at 6.75 (NCI as of last year). If you take Marners last year NCI and add inflation, that comes to ~7.25-7.5. Add in his obvious improvement and that comes to 8-8.5, which is exactly where I think he lands. It is why I have always said the rule is Nylander +1-1.5 mil for Marner. Also, if you are looking for a discount, it will be Marner (not that I would want to rely on one). Look at his ELC, the last time a 4th ovr pick did not get max contract was before the last lockout, which might have had different elc rules so it may very well have still been a max contract then too. He has shown a willingness to work with the team, and that helps to keep it down.

With his stats, and cap inflation, I cannot undestand how anyone thinks he is getting 9+ aav. You have to remember that Nylander is just one step back from marner, and he got 6.962. And lets be real here, the only reason he is a step back is because he hasn't played this year, at the end of last season, they were very very very close. We will have to see, but I cannot fathom a contract above 8.5, in fact my money is closer to 8-8.25 as the final for him.

Also got to love the 1 star salt from people who refuse to read stats lol. gotta love that.
Dec. 2, 2018 at 2:21 p.m.
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
I read them. They’re moronic. Did eichel lead the nhl in goals per game?


Did Matthews get more assists than Eichel?
One stat that is better does not make his contract irrelevant. The whole body of work is needed, and they are pretty close. You are cherry picking stats to prove your opinion. And how are stats moronic at all? They show reality, it is why I chose a wide variety of stats to showcase. Just because Reality does not agree with you doesn't mean reality is irrelevant.
Dec. 2, 2018 at 2:26 p.m.
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Quoting: leemos27
I read that post. Kudos to your diligent research, however, I would argue two things...

1) You said assuming there is no cap inflation which there is. It is cap % that is important.. Not actual dollars. At Eichels same cap %, Matthews would make $10,863,950... Now.. Eichel signed after a 64 point season (on pace for about 80 points) Matthews has proven to better than that.. Significantly. Matthews is guarenteed 11 at the absolute lowest!!

2) Guys have improved since you wrote that piece. Marner is currently on pace for 111 points..... Now even if he only gets 90 points. That already puts him in the Draisaitl, Benn, Kucherov conversation... And to my cap percentage point from before, we would be lucky to get him for 9million


Forgot to mention more on Matthews:
While I think 11 aav is the minimum, I also think is is about the cap for him. It seems to be a ready made number that benefits all. His stats put him about there with inflation, JT's contract puts a soft cap there, and a reference point for him (remember JT was a UFA with a huge Bidding war) and once you factor in Dubas being stingy with the injury, his being an RFA with no rights the team being able to easily show what they can offer him to keep the team together, and the fact they likely announce his captaincy when he signs the contract, all signs point to ~11 as the base price for the contract (11.34 meaning he wants to be highest paid and a bit cute with it).
Dec. 2, 2018 at 2:40 p.m.
#12
Bcarlo25
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Quoting: Random2152
Did Matthews get more assists than Eichel?
One stat that is better does not make his contract irrelevant. The whole body of work is needed, and they are pretty close. You are cherry picking stats to prove your opinion. And how are stats moronic at all? They show reality, it is why I chose a wide variety of stats to showcase. Just because Reality does not agree with you doesn't mean reality is irrelevant.


Ya I’m really cherry picking stats like goals, points, powerplay, shooting percentage, plus minus.

Never hear about those exotic stats
Dec. 2, 2018 at 2:41 p.m.
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Quoting: Bcarlo25
Ya I’m really cherry picking stats like goals, points, powerplay, shooting percentage, plus minus.

Never hear about those exotic stats


They had identical points (64 and 63). Matthews is a shooting version Eichel, the rest of the game is very similar. Eichel gets more apples as he is a playmaking version of Matthews. Yeah you are cherry picking shooting stats lol.
Dec. 2, 2018 at 3:05 p.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
They had identical points (64 and 63). Matthews is a shooting version Eichel, the rest of the game is very similar. Eichel gets more apples as he is a playmaking version of Matthews. Yeah you are cherry picking shooting stats lol.


You’re just the worst kind of hockey fan
Dec. 2, 2018 at 3:13 p.m.
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Edited Dec. 2, 2018 at 11:32 p.m.
Quoting: Bcarlo25
You’re just the worst kind of hockey fan


If (string loseargumnet.equals(true)); {
string insultperson = 'You’re just the worst kind of hockey fan';
system.out.println(insultperson);
}
Dec. 2, 2018 at 10:54 p.m.
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Quoting: Random2152
Forgot to mention more on Matthews:
While I think 11 aav is the minimum, I also think is is about the cap for him. It seems to be a ready made number that benefits all. His stats put him about there with inflation, JT's contract puts a soft cap there, and a reference point for him (remember JT was a UFA with a huge Bidding war) and once you factor in Dubas being stingy with the injury, his being an RFA with no rights the team being able to easily show what they can offer him to keep the team together, and the fact they likely announce his captaincy when he signs the contract, all signs point to ~11 as the base price for the contract (11.34 meaning he wants to be highest paid and a bit cute with it).


Right, I think 11.34 is actually the minimum, but Matthews holds all the cards here (unlike Nylander). If Matthews pulled a Nylander and demanded 13 mill, you would have to sign him.. You could negotiate but you can't risk losing MAtthews
Dec. 3, 2018 at 11:35 a.m.
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That rating was rough. I think you're a tad under on the Marner, Kapanen, and Johnsson contracts, but not by more than 250-500K so this is really good. The Matthews-Eichel comparison is also really good IMO as Eichel has a worse PP unit, worse defensive pair, and no first line Tavares-esque player to help carry the defensive responsibilities and matchups. Their production would be similar if Eichel was in Matthews' position. Matthews is better though, but not by 2.5 million.
Dec. 5, 2018 at 12:04 a.m.
#18
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Quoting: Random2152
Forgot to mention more on Matthews:
While I think 11 aav is the minimum, I also think is is about the cap for him. It seems to be a ready made number that benefits all. His stats put him about there with inflation, JT's contract puts a soft cap there, and a reference point for him (remember JT was a UFA with a huge Bidding war) and once you factor in Dubas being stingy with the injury, his being an RFA with no rights the team being able to easily show what they can offer him to keep the team together, and the fact they likely announce his captaincy when he signs the contract, all signs point to ~11 as the base price for the contract (11.34 meaning he wants to be highest paid and a bit cute with it).


So.. He might end up being the highest paid player of all time... You see his goals tonight? 12.34 mill is a bargain, 11.34 at this point is a dream
Dec. 5, 2018 at 9:39 a.m.
#19
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Quoting: leemos27
So.. He might end up being the highest paid player of all time... You see his goals tonight? 12.34 mill is a bargain, 11.34 at this point is a dream


Yes, because players get paid to be flashy, productiveness is irrelevant. His stats show him being a bit better than Eichel, so he should be paid a bit better than Eichel.
Dec. 5, 2018 at 2:01 p.m.
#20
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Quoting: Random2152
Yes, because players get paid to be flashy, productiveness is irrelevant. His stats show him being a bit better than Eichel, so he should be paid a bit better than Eichel.


His production has been astronomical. His injury is the only thing holding him back. He might still win the Rocket... even after missing 14 games
 
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