Team: 2019-20 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jan. 23, 2019

Published: Jan. 23, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Let me start off saying I am both a Leafs fan and love Marner; this is NOT a post knocking Marner at all. What this post is, is pointing out that Marner should not be getting 10+ million, despite what many in the media and around here are saying, mostly along the argument of "he's almost, or even as, good as Matthews, why should he get less?".

Marner is an excellent player, but to determine contract value the best way is to look at comparables.

A few facts:
1) Marner is a non-arbitration eligible RFA.
2) Marner is a winger
3) Marner is primarily a passer (though admittedly as he has increased his shooting of late he is scoring great, but thus far in his career his goals have been good, but it is his total points (and in particular primary assists) that have been exceptional

I would argue are facts
1) Centers get paid more than wingers
2) Goal scoring gets paid more than assists/points

It isn't all that relevant to compare him to UFA winger contracts, because he isn't that. Of note he also isn't arbitration eligible and that will come up in a moment

The highest two RFA winger contracts for non arbitration eligible players in this CBA are Gaudreau and Tarasenko and they're actually excellent comparables. Now one could point out that Kucherov was an RFA for his contract, but he was both arbitration eligible and only had one year left until UFA. At that point he easily could have pulled a Mark Stone and forced a one year contract to get to UFA, so the team really doesn't have the same power over him that the Leafs do over Marner. Even with signing, the majority of his contract are UFA years, so those will be paid higher than RFA years. (the only other RFA winger to get more under a cap based CBA period was Ovechkin, and he was obviously a unique player in his own stratosphere and this was an old CBA about a decade ago)

Now some will argue, "but he drives play" (he does), but so too do Gaudreau and Tarasenko (admittedly Tarasenko is having a poor year, but at the time of his contract he was as excellent as Marner, don't kid yourself the same can happen to Marner in a couple years. I hope it doesn't but the future is hard to predict).

So many will want to say, but Marner has more points than either of them had in their contract year, but there is more scoring this year and when you compare them by years, they are actually great comparables.

Player------------------------------Year before contract-----G------Pts-----Goals ranking for year---------Pts ranking for year
Marner-----------------------------2019---------------------------19----61-------40th----------------------------------9th ****as of today Jan 23rd/19
Marner (prorated to 82)-----2019---------------------------32----104--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gaudreau-------------------------2016---------------------------30-----78-------19th---------------------------------6th
Tarasenko------------------------2015---------------------------37------73------5th-----------------------------------10th

As you can see, while Marner's numbers seem way bigger (32/104 prorated), compared to 30/78 and 37/73, he is actually the 40th highest goal scorer and 9th highest in points, compared to 19th/6th and 5th/10th. It can frankly be argued that the other two were better compared to their peers. As well Marner is playing with the best player of any of the three in Tavares (before you point it out, i agree, he is bringing the best out of Tavares).

Another way to look at the above is controlling for goals per game (which is available here https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html)

Marner's prorated numbers for 82 GP were again 32/104
If we adjust Gaudreau to a full 82 game season at the same goals per game rate for the NHL his numbers change to 35 goals and 91 points
Tarasenko's 44 goals and 87 points.

So Marner 32/104, Gaudreau 35/91 and Tarasenko 44/87 and in regards to ranking in the league Marner 40th/9th, Gaudreau 19th/6th, and Tarasenko 5th/10th.

While Marner does have more points than them, he has less goals (significantly on Tarsenko's part) and relative to the league he places between them in points, and much lower than them in goals, and he does this with two other forwards arguably as good as him on his team while they were indisputably their teams best forward and all three drove play.

So what contracts did they get?

Tarasenko 7.5 mil/year Total cap that year 71.4
Gaudreau 6.75 mil/year Total cap that year 73 mil

If we adjust that for an assumed 83.5 mil (which is slightly higher than the reported best guess 83 mil) we get
Tarasenko 8.78 mil
Gaudreau 7.7 mil

Gaudreau admittedly had to hold out to get his, and likely folded some.

But those are the best comparables for Marner at this point. There will be 4 more comparables who need contracts this year in Tkachuk (just behind in points, just ahead in goals), Aho (behind in points, just ahead in goals), Laine (ahead in goals, way behind in points, having odd season, better in points in past, and quite possibly one of the best goal scorers in the league), and Rantanen (ahead in goals and significantly ahead in points). So they could change the landscape with their contract.

But for now Marner really doesn't deserve above high 8's based on his comparables, I'll be generous and give him 9. He is a winger and not a center, and the best wingers contracts have just not been that high. His camp will most certainly ask for more (apparently they wanted 9 million to sign last summer before his breakout year this year), but he really doesn't have comparables to put him that high.