Haven't you weakened the defence by not having Zaitsev and just hoping the Liljegren, Borgman even Holl are good enough. Sorta goes again the logic of acquiring Muzzin to make the defence better.

I agree trading Zeitsev in this manner will weaken the defense. However we do need to do something about the cap. I posted this trade and team this morning and did not get much response. https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/195263&post_id=712016

Here's my take on Zaitsev. If he not NHL competent as so many suggest....than he's an impossible trade due to his contract. If he is NHL competent then the Leafs keep...even if is overpaid. I've suggested that he Leafs "force" him to stay in Toronto during the offseason. He training or skills development seems to messed. Let him be coached in Toronto in July and August, and keep his Russia vacation very short.
If cap is an issue, the Leafs should be looking at trading a forward where they seem to have viable replacements. I'm of the belief recently that Marleau is going to retire. He seems "done" and he must know it too. His cap hit can be traded if he decides to retire.
I didn't disagree with your Pesce trade that you posted earlier, but now having Muzzin, maybe it isn't necessary.

So you think that it's integral the leafs keep Zaitsev because they need him on defense, but Nylander is expendable for Pesce? I would disagree. Nylander alone is worth far more to this team than Zaitsev and Pesce combined IMO, and his cap hit is less than both of them combined.

I believe Zaitsev is probably capable enough to play in the NHL, but is just overpaid. A time like NJ lacks RD and has a lot of cap space, so I think they might look to acquire him, hoping he can fit in their top 4

I really don't think he helps the leafs D core that much more than Liljgren, Holl, Borgman, Ozhiganov, Rosen,or even Marincin can.

It's not like Borgman is completely a shot in the dark either, I thought he was fantastic when he played for the leafs last year

I am looking at all the other posts that want to improve defense and to stay under the cap trade a crap load of prospects and pics with a Kapanen, Brown, Johnson, Zaitsev etc to make the room for a 5+ million Defense to keep Nylander. We won't have a Marlies team left to call up players giving up so much future.

Muzzin may only be with the Leafs through the 2019-20 season as he becomes a free agent. And also at that point Sandin may be ready.

Good job on selecting comparables for predicting contract signings.

But if you sign them for less than your comparables, you are cheating a bit

I assume you are talking about Sparks, to which I didn't really put too much stock in the comparables because it's kind of hard to compare back up goalies. He could possibly go up to $1M. With Kapy the only comparable who signed for more was Mantha but he was the least similar to Kapy, and had a more proven track record, and a bigger role with Detroit than Kapy has with Toronto.

I don't understand your point here. I'm not suggesting to trade away any prospects or picks.

I think that out of the Leafs players Zaitsev and Brown are probably the most expendable and most overpaid.
I think that obviously the leafs can't afford to have the best offence in the league and the best defence in the league the goal is to have players who are worth more than what you pay them, and Zaitsev is overpaid and Nylander is not.

I think it's better to remove a fringe 2nd/3rd pair defenceman and replace him with a 3rd pair defenceman than to remove a 1st line Forward talent and replace him with a 3rd/4th line Forward

Niederreiter: 5.25M
Tatar: 5.3M
Mantha: 3.3M
...
Kapy: 3M

Sorry I guess I was a little ambiguous as to which contracts I was comparing to ?

I wasn't comparing to those current contracts, I was looking at Niederreiter and Tatar's 3 year deals signed when they were Kapy's age, which were $2.7M and $2.75M respectively.

I used the comparable tool on the website and entered a custom comparable with Kapanen's points, gp, age, contract length, etc and found those contracts as comparables

Hats off too you then, you really put some good effort in this.

But contracts signed in 2014 should be ajusted for inflation. The market changed a lot in the last 4 years.

The cap went from $64.3 in 2014 to $83 next year. (29% increase)

Nied: 2.6M + 29% = 3.3M
Tatar: 2.75M + 29% = 3.5M

I still think you went a little bit cheap on everybody except Marner and Matthews to fit juuuuuuuuust under the cap.
So you are making the demonstration that your solution doesn't work. Sad because you've put a lot of effort into this.

With realistic signing numbers (a bit more for everyone) you need to get rid of 6-7 millions of average annual value.

If Marleau doesn't want to leave, the only solution I can see is to trade Zaitsev + Kapanen or just Nylander for good young first contract players.

I would trade Nylander based on expectations versus cap hit, trade value, work ethics and thought negociation history.

Get some promising young puck moving Dmans and you are all set for the Cup.

Like when Tampa moved Drouin to MTL for Sergachiev.

I would disagree, when I did my inflation consideration I took the cap hit % and multiplied it by the current cap to get the inflated value, so it led to $3.2M and $3.3M. There are also many comparables less than kapy's cap hit, like Baertshi had almost identical points and games played as Kapy, and he was only inflated to $2.1M, Kase is the most recent close comparable and his was only inflated to $2.72M. Schwartz is, I think, definitely a better player than Kapy, and his cap hit only got inflated to $2.8M.

I chose something in the middle of all my comparables for Kapy at $3M.

Also you don't need a 23 man roster, you could just have a 22 man roster and call people up as they get injured, you also could probably get Matthews down to $11M with less term, or even trade Brown.

Trading Nylander should be seen as the last choice IMO

Let say you put Brown in Minors or trade him and go for 22 players. So technically it would work. But your defense is weak and you cut corners on your prospect development.

You are still stuck against cap roof and can't add any veteran at the TDL. This defense is full of undevelopped rookies and is not contender worthy, especially on the right side.

Or you get a young and cheap RHD NHL ready like a Dotchin, Pionk or Honka for Kapanen AND you can add a veteran like Lovejoy or Girardi for 1.5-2M ...

I really think you have a better team to win a champioship then.

(3rd line) Offense is nice, but defence wins championships!

My two cents... Still, I like your framework. Let's go the extra step

Thank you x1000 for this comment. Couldn’t agree more

Haha thanks, I appreciate the insight and feedback.

IMO Defence wins championships is the biggest lie in sports. If you were to rank the teams in the playoffs each year in GF/Game and GA/Game, each of the last 4 cup winners ranked higher in GF than GA.
It doesn't matter if you win 5-4, or 2-1 as long as you win.

Take a look at this. I think that guy has the best solution :
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1006560

Haha I actually ran through this solution a little while ago, some believe it would be considered collusion because the avs are essentially just acquiring Marleau to buy him out for the leafs, and that could be deemed collusion. There's no real reason for Colorado to buy him out since the buy out cap hit would be the same as his actual cap hit, after the Orpik situation the teams were investigated by the league and there was deemed to be no collusion because it actually made sense for Orpik to be bought out, not just so he could return to his old team.
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/968083