again.. as I've said twice now it's not smart to carry 20 players in case of injury but its still an option for a slight cap relief. So yes, it is an option. Not not a smart one (as I said). If they did carry 20 and had an injury, they'd obviously have to recall someone from the Marlies. if they were in Toronto it wouldn't be an issue, but on the road it causes issues. Doesn't mean it's not an option though.

Kinda like the Nylander contract situation. I'd be willing to bet that the deal was agreed upon well before the deadline, but the fact that Toronto had the cap space and we're playing well without him, afforded them the luxury of being able to wait till the last minute when Nylander could get the amount of money he wanted, but the Leafs got the lowest possible cap hit in years 2-6 because of the pro rated salary. So similar to the 20 roster player idea, both aren't ideal (you'd prefer to have 23 players and prefer to have Nylander in training camp) but the 20 players and waiting till the deadline to sign Nylander were both still options.

Please don't make me repeat myself again that its an option for 20 players, its just not smart. (As I've said numerous times and agreed with you). You're just not reading right.

Where are you getting those numbers for Matthews and Marner?

Matthews' AAV is too low.

That AAV for Marner looks right on a 5 year deal. Kane and Marner are almost identical in terms of production and Kane got 9.2 million equivalent today.

Ok...but here's my question...if you carry a 20 man roster and only have $500k in available cap...what happens when someone gets an injury that will sideline them for 3 games?

Matthews AAV is the same as Toews at 83 cap. Comparable contracts put that right there for a 6 year deal.
Marner would be the 2nd highest paid winger with this contract behind proven performer and (almost) UFA Kucherov.
The 8 year deals are 8@11.34 and 8@8.5-9 respectively. People here seem to think Toronto needs to badly overpay for their players for no real reason. Marner is much closer to Gaudreau, who got 6.75 I will remind you.

So I ask where you get your absurd numbers for these players? Media who think Marner will get 14? and Matthews will somehow get 25?

I think you're being overly optimistic. It's not a matter of Toronto overpaying...it's a matter of negotiation.

Why does Matthews accept the Toews comparison? What if he wants a Crosby/McDavid comparison? And then...what if both sides meet in the middle?

What if Marner doesn't like a Kucherov or Gaudreau comparison...he likes a Matthews comparison? Then they negotiate somewhere in the middle.

I appreciate all the work people do on here coming up with comparables and factoring in cap percentages...but getting a contract signed between a club and their star players isn't done with a spreadsheet. Both sides will present their numbers and their reasons behind it. The club will find lower priced comparables and the player's agent will shoot higher....then they talk and try and find a compromise that appeases both sides.

What if both Matthews and Marner's camps point out that the leafs were the absolute worst team in the league...and having the two of them in the lineup immediately transformed them into a perennial playoff squad with both players flirting near the tops of various scoring charts? What players in the league can boast similar transformations? Crosby and Malkin? Even Toews and Kane took a couple years before cementing the blackhawks as contenders.

Let's face it...'worth' is completely subjective. If there was no salary cap...the leafs would toss them both $15m a year without blinking. IMO the conversation will be less about what each side thinks the players are 'worth' and more about negotiating a number the player deems to be fair while allowing the team to operate competitively within the confines of the cap.

I'm not here to tell you your numbers will be wrong...I certainly hope you're right....but I can't accept your position that predicting their final numbers to be higher than what you've projected is anymore absurd than thinking both players willingly accept a toews/kane comparison and sign on the dot.

You're saying Marner should sign less than Kane/Toews, even though their production is nearly identical while giving up 3 UFA years?

Those 3 UFA years are going to be extremely expensive.

It's not going to happen. The Leafs have no leverage here.

Matthews will get way more than Toews did. They are not equal. Matthews' production is way higher through his ELC.

Points production is not the whole story. It is why i showed you that acgm with all the stats included. Once those are factored in, the picture become much more clear.

Matthews is a franchise talent, and will perform paid like one. McDavid is a generational talent and is not overly comparable. Eichel on the other hand is very comparable.

Marner will sign for less than Nikita kucherov, which is a much closer example. Kuch had lower taxes yes, but he also had years of top end production couples with his almost lending Ufa status.

Marner literally cannot get more than Kuch, all I'm saying is he maxes out at 500k less.

I'm not using the Kane towes comparison. The other guy is lol. Was responding to him. Basically stats and player similarity shows Matthews should get the Eichel deal, which is 8@11 with inflation. If you want to say he is better, you can go a touch higher with that AAV, but to like 11.34 or 11.5

That's fine...but my point is all your work is simply one aspect of the negotiation and not the be all and end all. You can't negotiate an extension with your franchise players with analytics alone. Any side can find and skew stats to help prove why he should get more or less.

If you hear ex players talk about arbitration...your theory seems to apply better to what goes on there. Teams use their own statistical analysis the break down a player and prove why he's not worth what he thinks he is....everyone that's gone through it says it's a brutal process that ruins the relationship between player and team.

The better strategy in any negotiation is to find out what the other party covets most and tailor a sales pitch to show how you can deliver that to him better than anyone else.

I agree.

But you can't really do that on cf, so this is the next best thing