The chart below shows the impending roster of the team without Jake Gardiner and Ron Hainsey. Even so, Toronto will be over the cap in the summer. Two strategies to solve the problem presented by the need to re-sign Matthews, Marner, Kapanen, Johnsson et al. immediately suggest themselves:
1. Trade Nylander.
2. Don’t trade Nylander.
Obviously, Approach One solves the cap problem immediately, assuming the values coming back have about half the effect of Nylander’s cap hit. This strategy ranges from multi-player trades (Josh Anderson and Markus Nutivaara from Columbus) to pure draft pick exchanges (Carolina’s or Edmonton’s first-round pick, to take two possible examples). The drawback, of course, is losing a player of Nylander’s ability.
Let’s consider Approach Two. As you can see, the Maple Leafs are roughly $3.5M over an $82.5M cap assuming that I’m reasonably accurate on the free agents that will be signed. (I’m factoring in the possibility of moving Engvall or Ennis up and Gauthier down, although the latter would have to pass through waivers.) From this figure, three strategies more or less leap out at us:
1. Trade Kadri. (Carolina might part with their first-round pick for him.)
2. Trade Zaitsev. (Despite his critics, there are several teams that would benefit from having him.)
3. Trade Brown and Hyman. (Edmonton, in particular, is desperate for NHL-quality forwards.)
Option One doesn’t really appeal to me because Kadri is just too good – in my opinion, there is no #3 center equal to him in the NHL. (Save your objections. I got to watch Kopitar, Carter and Richards day in and day out when Richards could still play, and I got to watch Getzlaf, Kesler and Henrique day in and day out when Kesler could still play, and I go all the way back to Trottier, Goring and Brent Sutter outclassing Edmonton before the Oilers added Mark Messier.)
Option Three doesn’t appeal to me because it requires replacing two players instead of one and creates a hole in one of the top two lines. Moreover, it puts added strain on the farm system in case of injuries.
Option Two seems the most viable, although still unpleasant. (Zaitsev plus the St. Louis fourth to Arizona or Vancouver for their second?) As maligned as he is in some quarters, he is still a significant part of what is currently the seventh-best defense in the League.
Note that all three options leave about $1M over an $82.5M cap to sign a replacement, or bring Holl up from the Marlies.
Clearly, my analysis would change if Dubas achieved another miracle, like signing Matthews or Marner for $1M less (for a shorter term).
Wizard of Ozh in first pairing of an NHL team that is supposed to contend? 3rd D line is too weak. Will have to score 450 goals or Anderson to stand on his head and stay healthy. It's possible!
Cue someone coming into this comment section to tell you Marner won't be going for less than 10 million...
I know his figure on this site has been creeping up from $7.5M in the summer to $8.5M in the fall to $9.5M around the New Year, but at some point it's got to stop . . .
Still, $7.5M for Nylander was a million more than I expected.
Wizard of Ozh in first pairing of an NHL team that is supposed to contend? 3rd D line is too weak. Will have to score 450 goals or Anderson to stand on his head and stay healthy. It's possible!
Well, what's the alternative? Is @palhal right -- that trading Nylander is inevitable?
I know his figure on this site has been creeping up from $7.5M in the summer to $8.5M in the fall to $9.5M around the New Year, but at some point it's got to stop . . .
Still, $7.5M for Nylander was a million more than I expected.
Nylander is at 6.9m and everyone knew, even at the draft, that he would be trouble when it came to money.
Well, what's the alternative? Is @palhal right -- that trading Nylander is inevitable?
Quoting: OldNYIfan
Quoting: OldNYIfan
Well, what's the alternative? Is @palhal right -- that trading Nylander is inevitable?
The addition of 4m Muzzin puts the Leafs in a precarious situation. They can be OK cap wise if they want to go cheap on their bottom end players..(not necessarily a bad thing). It's still the unknown of what those RFA contracts are going to cost. To me the best option is to trade the contract friendly Nylander next summer. With that additional maybe you sign experienced NHLer...like Jensen. Or you don't "short" bridge some of those RFAs like Kapanen and offer them more term and more money.
I disagree with some fans who think you can trade some lower cost players such as Brown. IMO more cap is needed and I would rather trade one player than trade three, because it harder to find three capable NHLers than just one.
Nylander is at 6.9m and everyone knew, even at the draft, that he would be trouble when it came to money.
The actual AAV is $7.5M. It's an odd figure because it was pro-rated in the first year due to his ####ing hold-out. For once, you're wrong. Now you know how I feel, every day.
I started this post out as an effort to add Jensen but it's actually harder than one would think . . . it's driving me around to your conviction that moving Nylander is the only thing that works easily.
The actual AAV is $7.5M. It's an odd figure because it was pro-rated in the first year due to his ####ing hold-out. For once, you're wrong. Now you know how I feel, every day.
Sorry bud, his AAV is 7.5m, but do to delay in signing, his cap hit is what 10.6 m this year but just 6.96 for years 2 to 6 in contract.
Sorry bud, his AAV is 7.5m, but do to delay in signing, his cap hit is what 10.6 m this year but just 6.96 for years 2 to 6 in contract.
Quoting: palhal
Sorry bud, his AAV is 7.5m, but do to delay in signing, his cap hit is what 10.6 m this year but just 6.96 for years 2 to 6 in contract.
Quoting: OldNYIfan
The actual AAV is $7.5M. It's an odd figure because it was pro-rated in the first year due to his ####ing hold-out. For once, you're wrong. Now you know how I feel, every day.
Nylanders cap hit this year is 6.96m as it is through the entire contract. This is his aav and his actual money. No matter how you look at it that’s what it works out to. He was paid a 10m salary this season to make him whole and keep the cap hit low. It’s tricky math and I know where you are getting 7.5m from but in reality this really isn’t. Nylander will not receive his 45m and leafs will never be hit with that in cap.
Just a quick exercise to prove this, if leafs paired out 6.25m signing bonus and 650k salary for year one nylander would be on essentially the same deal at 6.9m with the same cap hit he has now. Why those chose to do it this way is beyond me. Literally pridham is smarter than me.
Nylanders cap hit this year is 6.96m as it is through the entire contract. This is his aav and his actual money. No matter how you look at it that’s what it works out to. He was paid a 10m salary this season to make him whole and keep the cap hit low. It’s tricky math and I know where you are getting 7.5m from but in reality this really isn’t. Nylander will not receive his 45m and leafs will never be hit with that in cap.
Just a quick exercise to prove this, if leafs paired out 6.25m signing bonus and 650k salary for year one nylander would be on essentially the same deal at 6.9m with the same cap hit he has now. Why those chose to do it this way is beyond me. Literally pridham is smarter than me.
Yeah, but you're still smarter than me. Damn! I thought I had you there.
Yeah, but you're still smarter than me. Damn! I thought I had you there.
No you’re fairly right, on paper it is 7.5m but only to make sure he was paid 6.9m including this shortened season. They went about it a very weird way, it could just be that’s how nylander wanted it structured. Not sure why he just wouldn’t want a signing bonus, seems to make sense both ways.I’m sure Pridham had his reasons.
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