Kap and Marner hold out and get offer sheets at that money.

No they take what they’re offered or get traded (some wiggle room in there of course)...

Will have to wait and see what Aho and Rantanen get.... can’t see marner making more than either one of them.

Why not? They all produce similar offence + marner gets deployed for defensive assignments/PK time. I'm still holding to the belief that Marner's camp was always and will still use Matthews as their direct comparison. And based on the comments Dubas made after the Matthews deal was announced...we know he strongly believes Marner should get less.

Unless Marleau retires I gotta think the term is 3 years or less

Right, because that's what happened with Nylander

Not really the way the offer sheet system has operated in the past. I've been told that other GM's have already indicated to Marner that they will give him a 4-yr offer sheet at a dollar amount the leafs will likely match...just so he can get to free agency.

But when players are coveted like Marner/Kapanen/Johnsson....a GM won't roll the dice and hope he can get an offer sheet signed....they would approach Kyle...let them know they are interested in making a deal and that they are considering an offer sheet as an option....then Kyle decides whether he would rather come up and meet the player's demands...bang out a deal with that GM...or shop around to see if better offers are out there. It's possible all three occur at the same time until a decision is ultimately made.

It's going to come down to where priorities lie. The fact of the matter is that the leafs can't pay all of them market value for the 2019-20 season without starting to tear down the team around them. They can offer them substantial raises on what they're currently making on a 1-2 year deal with the understanding that more cap space is available as soon as the 2020-21 season to get them signed to contracts more representative of their value.

It's probably not reasonable to think that all 3 would get on board with a 1yr deal on a lower AAV....but I could see them going that route with Marner...taking Johnsson to arbitration...and then determining if they can fit Kapanen or if they are better off trading him

I'm not sure Marner will agree. I think Marner is priority #1 on getting him what he deserves or they have another Nylander situation. I think the Leafs then look at Kap as priority #2 and may make sense to consider trading him or trading Nylander after the July 1 bonus. Nylander is certainly showing he was a product of his linemates last season and can't anchor a line himself at the same production numbers. At this point, would you rather have Nylander for $7m cap hit or Kap for a $3.5M or $4M cap hit; I'd take Kap any day of the week just to ensure I can keep Marner happy and sign Johnson.

Nylander has looked great the past few weeks. IMO his $7m cap hit will be one of the better bargains on the team in the near future.

I don't think Marner will sit out unless the offers coming in from Dubas are insulting. I think he wants his fair share and maybe he realizes the best way to get a long term deal at the AAV he wants without damaging the competitiveness of the team is to do a 1yr extension. I dunno...I'm not saying it's likely....but I think it's something that makes a lot of sense for both sides

Then he gets traded.... marner for jones sounds nice...

Why would we offer more for marner than what he is worth and lose players that could help us contend? Aho produces similar but can play centre and carries his team.... Rantanen produces at a much better rate than marner. If marner wants to use Matthews as a comparable and stick to his guns he will not be a leaf next year. That much I can promise. Dubas has pretty much outlined why Matthews got his money... “he is a franchise centre who produces goals at an elite elite rate” (the second elite was not a typo) I think that comment was directed squarely at the Marner camp.

I might be okay with the contract you are offering here but I’m not sure if mitch will be. From what I’ve heard the leafs countered his 9m with 6m and that is where negotiations sat. Hindsight being so clear they should have signed him to 9mx8yrs. I don’t think they will get that deal now but Dubas seems pretty sure that things are under control. Enough to acquire muzzin.

My point is if Aho signs for 8-8.5m and Rantanen for 9.5m and marner is holding oout for 13m... why would the leafs want to keep him?

oops

Ya I 100% agree those comments by Dubas were not so subtly directed at the Marner camp. I'll be absolutely stunned if he gets traded though.

With Nylander...I think the leafs wanted a number in the low 6's, Nylander wanted probably mid 7's. Leafs offer 5...Nylander counters with 8...and they use the quirk in the RFA fomula to get a number below an AAV of 7 while still paying the guy what he wanted.

With Matthews...we never really heard about what number the leafs were offering. Sounded more like they got the number of Matthews' ask and negotiated various options at various terms until they got something they were comfortable with. Seemed like they weren't looking to make it a hard negotiation.

With Marner....last offseason he wanted 8 @ $9m and leafs offered around $6m hoping they could finish somewhere in the $7m's...but the gap was too wide. When they approached him a couple months ago, his ask was 8 @ $11m. I wonder if the leafs went back to see if 8 @ $9m was still on the table and got shut down. And I wonder if the ask has risen again after Matthews' contract got signed. I'm thinking it probably did. Leafs obviously don't just give him whatever he asks for, but it at least gives us an idea of where he might end up. I can't imagine he's holding out for $12-$13m which is why I think a deal will get made...but I don't know how any one can watch the game and come to the conclusion that Marner has a significantly less impact on the game than Matthews. Leafs will argue a difference between RW vs C and Marner will argue it's irrelevant. Leafs will argue goals vs assists and Marner will argue that a large number of his assists set-up gimme goals for his linemates and they're just as valuable.

That's why I stay away from arguments about what a guy is 'worth' since it can be so subjective and easy to find arguments for either side to argue their point

Yup, I can’t say what marner will get bit I have an idea of what he is worth. They will certainly have to play with term to get the aav right. My point is if aho and Rantanen sign market value (what should be market value...8-10m the I fon’t See much of an argument for marner that doesn’t make him look like a selfish player who doesn’t mind hurting the team to get a bit more money.

I do agree that he won’t get moved and I don’t want him to move but as I said if he is looking for 13mx8 and wants to stick with that base Iam not sure any sort of term will realistically work.