where is buffalo drafting?

7th

That's a steep price for 7th..... not sure its entirely worth it but if management really likes a specific guy, maybe they'll take the risk. I would do it for sure if Byram slipped to 7th. Maybe even one of Dach or Cozens too.

Even if Byram or Cozens drop at 7th, this is a very bad trade for Montreal. Look at it in terms of draft statistics, there is 18% of the chance that you draft an nhl player with a second round pick and a 3rd round pick is approximately 17%. So we trade 53% to get a nhl player to upgrade 8 spots!

Now look at the odds of drafting a stud top pairing dman with those picks compared to the others. Byram is legit. Your getting the best dman in the draft. Sometimes you have to risk multiple picks to get a quality player. There is also a chance none of those picks amount to anything too.

It is a big risk for both teams. If Bergevin is hot to have a player (Byram or Cozens or other) and Betterall feels he needs more picks to restock his prospect pool I could see a deal. I was thinking MTL was closer to being good team than Buffalo and Marc may try to add a top player now while Weber and Price are still performing well. Jason may feel that he has his top defensemen (Dahlin, Montour and Ristolainen) and top line (Skinner, Eichel and Reinhart) but needs secondary scoring and can wait until the players drafted this year can develop (unlike Montreal).

Sorry for the previous nessage, I hit the sent button to quickly! Satistically, with the 15th, 2 2nd and a 3rd, you have a better chance of drafting a top pairing d-man than with the 7th overall (Byram). The sum of the chances of drafting an impact player with the picks that Montreal would give are higher than those that they will obtain in return (7th overall).

This trade is a great idea in that it could fit the need of both teams, but I was just saying that I believe that Montreal should not do it, because the trade is against them statistically! What I mean is that I know that the trade is risky and could turn into a huge success for the Habs, but there is more chance (and I believe significantly more chance) that it turns out to be a bad trade for the Habs!

Except its not. You confusing the chances of drafting a NHL regular with drafting a top pairing stud dman. There is no actual data to show the specific positions and quality of players at those positions you could get based on % but anyone who understands how percentages work in this case, knows 85% (Byram in this case) is greater than 50% + 15% + 15% + 5%. (15OA + two 2nd rounds + 3rd round).

The odds of a 3rd rounder being an NHL regular is "X" but the odds of a 3rd rounder becoming a STUD NHL dman is significantly decreased. The odds the highest rated dman in any one draft being a stud is very very high.

I get what you are saying, more kicks at the can is better but isn't always. Would you not trade all your draft picks this year for NJ's 1st this year? One potential generational player trumps the average entire draft a team could have. rounds 4-7 have almost no chance of being anything more than depth players. Odds are, that you'll draft more NHL regulars than simply having that 1st OA yes but then again, what's more important to you? The potential generational player or the statistically 3rd line center and a couple depth players?

That's why I said it depends on whose available. It'll depend on who the GM feels is worth that risk. IMO Byram, the best dman in the draft, is worth more than any first 4 picks the Habs have taken in any of the past 10 years where their 1st wasn't any better than 15th. (So not including Kotkaniemi draft and Sergachev draft. The last time MTL nailed in consecutive picks early in the draft was in 2007! McDonagh, Subban, Pacioretty, Fortier) Other than that? Gotta go back to the 70's. There's better odds the best dman in the draft will be a stud dman than there is 15OA + two 2nd rounds + 3rd round.

From this perspective, you're right! It's my bad, Sorry!

Well its not about being right (I mean it feels nice and all but it really doesn't matter). Its only a matter of opinion, no need to be sorry. That was my opinion of this situation but technically there is no wrong or right answer. I just wanted to show that the risk for this one pick being Byram, MAY be worth the 4 picks if under the right situation.

I've heard many people repeat the same sentiment you did (More kicks at the can is always better), I just wanted to clarify that in many cases it is correct but not in every single case. There are exceptions to the rule.

Nice reply! I was kind of expecting that you would hold it against me! Your reply was really respectful and you are a true gentleman! It was nice discussing with you!

Whoa whoa whoa..... Who you calling a gentlem.......................ohhhhhh........... You're being nice................. I'm not used to that on here.................... Do.. d....do we hug now?

Hahahah, I don’t know if you are being sarcastic right now! But I guess what I was trying to say was that with the amount of insults that you receive when you state your opinion on these board, you kind of start to expect getting an insult. So when someone is respectful, you kind of get caught by surprise and, in my case, that make me feel great!

Lol its total sarcasm but the good kind, not the salty asshat kind.

I do appreciate the positive vibe, I just never been called a gentleman before. Haha

Thank you both. Great discussion. You both summed my feelings (not that I am correct, just opinion). Big risk for both teams. Buffalo makes the trade to try to get more middle 6 or second pairing defenseman and MTL makes the trade to get a top 3 forward or top 2 defenseman. Montreal looking for quality, Buffalo looking for quantity.