Quoting: mhockey91
Drouin also had a very solid season after the 16/17 season and showed that he had first line potential. Drouins “conflict” with Tampa is that he wasn’t getting ice time and that changed after the 2016/17 season. Drouin has now had two seasons in a row where he hasn’t been able to surpass that production. Colorado would much rather take a gamble with cousins or Bryam or whoever they draft at fourth overall who could absolutely develop into “elite” players. Their pick probably won’t play next year anyways like you said, but i think fourth overall upside is much higher than drouins at this point. Drouin is an interesting player. He’s shown flashes of elite potential and then flashes of bust. Colorado wont move 4th for him. He’s been a 50 point guy thus far into his career. That’s not worth 4th
Drouin wasn't suited for C and it was his first year with a new team, so I don't put much stock into that season. I'm not a fan of Drouin personally, but he has the ability to produce more than he has shown.
The problem with evaluating a 1st round pick as what it "might be" in comparison to a player that already is, is that there's a tendency to ignore what that pick "could be".
#4 could be a bust, equivalent to the player you trade it for, less than the player you trade it for, 2-5 years away from being NHL ready, etc.
A young top 6 player that consistently puts up 50 points and is established at the NHL level and will be a solid contributor at a time when your team is ready to compete, is worth more than a player who might be equal or better in the future.
The problem with always weighting in favor of the future, is falling into the trap of being unable to compete in the here and now. We'll call that the Oilers stratagem. They could have traded Yakupov or Puljujarvi for more immediate and certain improvements. In fact, they could have traded all but two of their last 10 or so 1st rounders (Draisaitl and McDavid) and still be in a better position than they are today. Sure, they'd miss out on someone like Nurse or Nuge. They wasted Eberle and Hall while they had them.
Just look at some of the recent 4th overall picks:
11 Adam Larsson
12 Griffin Reinhart
13 Seth Jones
14 Sam Bennett
15 Mitch Marner
16 Puljujarvi
I'd take Drouin over all but Jones and Marner, and I don't even like Drouin. The rest are lesser players or replaceable.