Being Realistic

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Marner, Mitchell	8	$9,790,000
Johnsson, Andreas	4	$3,700,000
Kapanen, Kasperi	2	$2,300,000
Baptiste, Nicholas	1	$830,000
Gagné, Gabriel	1	$830,000
Carcone, Michael	1	$730,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Heed, Tim	2	$1,200,000
Thornton, Joe	1	$3,500,000

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$83,000,000	$80,459,699	$0	$215,000	$2,540,301

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 2	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 6	Marner, Mitchell $9,790,000$9,790,000 RW UFA - 6
Johnsson, Andreas $3,700,000$3,700,000 LW, RW UFA - 4	Matthews, Auston $11,634,000$11,634,000 C UFA - 5	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 5
Mikheyev, Ilya $925,000$925,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Kadri, Nazem $4,500,000$4,500,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Kapanen, Kasperi $2,300,000$2,300,000 RW UFA - 3
Moore, Trevor $775,000$775,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Thornton, Joe $3,500,000$3,500,000 C, LW UFA - 1	Bracco, Jeremy $842,500$842,500 ($82,500$82K) RW UFA - 1
	Gauthier, Frédérik $675,000$675,000 C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD UFA - 3	DeMelo, Dylan $900,000$900,000 RD UFA - 1	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Muzzin, Jake $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD UFA - 1	Benning, Matthew $1,900,000$1,900,000 RD UFA - 1
Dermott, Travis $863,333$863,333 LD/RD UFA - 1	Heed, Tim $1,200,000$1,200,000 RD UFA - 1	Sparks, Garret $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 1
Kivihalme, Teemu $792,500$792,500 ($132,500$132K) LD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
		Horton, Nathan $5,300,000$5,300,000 RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

May 10, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.

#1

Joined: Jun. 2018

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Marleau has a NMC and isn't waiving to go to Ottawa. Unless you're assuming that Marleau retires (no indications of him doing so), you're not moving his contract.

palhal liked this.

May 10, 2019 at 2:52 p.m.

#2

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

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So you say Heed is good and he signs as RHD UFA for 1.2m. But Zaitsev and his 4.5m gets a return in a trade. Now I think Zaitsev is OK but wouldn't Heed and the Stars be 10 times signing for 3m?
Hence the trouble with trading 4.5m Zaitsev, thinking you get something in return, however than expecting to sign a competent NHLer for 1.2m

May 10, 2019 at 2:56 p.m.

#3

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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none of this is realistic. top to bottom

Lenny7 liked this.

May 10, 2019 at 3:01 p.m.

#4

handsomeIAN

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Quoting: staytru20

Marleau has a NMC and isn't waiving to go to Ottawa. Unless you're assuming that Marleau retires (no indications of him doing so), you're not moving his contract.

He said he'd consider a move if asked. It's possible he retires. If he did get traded, OTT would be a team that would make sense for him.

May 10, 2019 at 3:02 p.m.

#5

handsomeIAN

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

none of this is realistic. top to bottom

Great opinion.

May 10, 2019 at 3:05 p.m.

#6

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2019

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Quoting: palhal

So you say Heed is good and he signs as RHD UFA for 1.2m. But Zaitsev and his 4.5m gets a return in a trade. Now I think Zaitsev is OK but wouldn't Heed and the Stars be 10 times signing for 3m?
Hence the trouble with trading 4.5m Zaitsev, thinking you get something in return, however than expecting to sign a competent NHLer for 1.2m

The NHL isn't exactly the most efficient league in terms of player evaluation and roster construction. Exhibit A: VGK is a top 5 team cobbled together from what other teams considered garbage. Never before has it been more obvious that most NHL mgmt teams are very stupid and nearly none of them could be accused of being particularly innovative or creative. Heed's contract projection comes from Evolving Wild's projection model, and I kicked in a little extra money.

May 10, 2019 at 3:06 p.m.

#7

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

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"People say you won't get anything back for him, but the thing is, you would; anyone who would trade for him thinks he is a Top4D and is going to expect to pay something for him. A mid-level prospect and a mid-round pick seems fair."

I love these. You could ask just about every Leaf fan what the teams biggest need is, and they would either say "Top pairing RHD", or "Top 4 RHD".

It's also great because most people overvalue their own players/prospect. YOUR OWN FANS don't even think this guy is a top 4 dman. If he was, they wouldn't all be trading him away in every friggin' Leafs thread. Any team that's going to invest $20+ million dollars in this guy is going to want some sort of compensation to do so.

May 10, 2019 at 3:07 p.m.

#8

staytru20

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 1,671

Likes: 875

Quoting: handsomeIAN

He said he'd consider a move if asked. It's possible he retires. If he did get traded, OTT would be a team that would make sense for him.

He'd consider a move. Why the hell would he want to go to Ottawa with no chance whatsoever to get back in the playoffs.

May 10, 2019 at 3:10 p.m.

#9

handsomeIAN

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Joined: Apr. 2019

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When I say realistic, I mean "feasible". This is not a prediction. It's along the lines of what I would try to achieve if I were the GM and wasn't looking to shake things up too much. If I was up for making bigger changes I'd probably trade Rielly and re-sign Gardiner.

May 10, 2019 at 3:11 p.m.

#10

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

Great opinion.

Trading Marleau to Ottawa is not feasible. It’s about as feasible as my bruins trading a 4th rounder for matthews

May 10, 2019 at 3:13 p.m.

#11

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Lenny7

"People say you won't get anything back for him, but the thing is, you would; anyone who would trade for him thinks he is a Top4D and is going to expect to pay something for him. A mid-level prospect and a mid-round pick seems fair."

I love these. You could ask just about every Leaf fan what the teams biggest need is, and they would either say "Top pairing RHD", or "Top 4 RHD".

It's also great because most people overvalue their own players/prospect. YOUR OWN FANS don't even think this guy is a top 4 dman. If he was, they wouldn't all be trading him away in every friggin' Leafs thread. Any team that's going to invest $20+ million dollars in this guy is going to want some sort of compensation to do so.

Look, NO ONE would trade for someone with this salary and term and harbour him as a SALARY DUMP. That is the unrealistic scenario. The only teams trading for Zaitsev will necessarily be one that believes he IS a rosterable D, hence they will be expecting to pay SOMETHING. If a Zaitsev deal gets done, there is zero chance you will see it getting done where a team takes him on as a salary dump; something will come back as a hockey trade.
GMs often have different thoughts then a fanbase or an analyst. This is not unusual or prohibitive of a deal and history demonstrates this clearly.

May 10, 2019 at 3:17 p.m.

#12

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

Trading Marleau to Ottawa is not feasible. It’s about as feasible as my bruins trading a 4th rounder for matthews

What would be a feasible destination for Marleau, then? How many teams are trying to get to the cap floor? Or is he untradeable? He may be, just this is what I would be trying to do with him.

May 10, 2019 at 3:19 p.m.

#13

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

What would be a feasible destination for Marleau, then? How many teams are trying to get to the cap floor? Or is he untradeable? He may be, just this is what I would be trying to do with him.

totally, completely, 100% untradeable. He has a full no movement clause. He has a 35+ contract. He has a signing bonus that needs to be paid in full if he's bought out, and even if he's bought out the team that buys him out gets 0 cap relief. There is one feasible destination for Marleau, and it's toronto.

the marner contract isn't feasible either.

May 10, 2019 at 3:23 p.m.

#14

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

totally, completely, 100% untradeable. He has a full no movement clause. He has a 35+ contract. He has a signing bonus that needs to be paid in full if he's bought out, and even if he's bought out the team that buys him out gets 0 cap relief. There is one feasible destination for Marleau, and it's toronto.

the marner contract isn't feasible either.

You could have just said "Marleau is probably untradeable" and that would have been fair.
A team like OTT wouldn't buy Marleau out, they'd play him. If you read what I wrote you'd see that after July 1st his money is paid save $1.25M. The contract would save Eugene Melnyk $5M real dollars. If you think it's unfeasible that Eugene wouldn't be somewhat interested in doing this, well, maybe you don't know Eugene. It's more whether Marleau would facilitate it or a similar deal.
I think the Marner contract is probably more than his real value. What do you think he'll get?

May 10, 2019 at 3:25 p.m.

#15

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

You could have just said "Marleau is probably untradeable" and that would have been fair.
A team like OTT wouldn't buy Marleau out, they'd play him. If you read what I wrote you'd see that after July 1st his money is paid save $1.25M. The contract would save Eugene Melnyk $5M real dollars. If you think it's unfeasible that Eugene wouldn't be somewhat interested in doing this, well, maybe you don't know Eugene. It's more whether Marleau would facilitate it or a similar deal.
I think the Marner contract is probably more than his real value. What do you think he'll get?

buuuuut he has a full no move clause. Why does he want to go to the worst team in the league when he's chasing a cup?

As for Marner, I think he'll get a bridge. 3x9 works, or maybe they go 5 years with him and he gets 10.5. An 8 year deal would be huge. 12 maybe? I don't think he wants an 8 year deal.

May 10, 2019 at 3:30 p.m.

#16

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

Joined: Apr. 2019

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

buuuuut he has a full no move clause. Why does he want to go to the worst team in the league when he's chasing a cup?

Yea, he'd have to waive it. I agree that's the biggest "if". Again, not a prediction of what is going to happen, just an example of what I would try to do. Players have waived no-trades before and if the Leafs made it known that they didn't want him around then he might decide it's alright to leave. Most likely a floor/internal cap team would be interested in him if you could get him to waive; I guess OTT, NYR, ANA, maybe NYI?

May 10, 2019 at 3:36 p.m.

#17

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 13,291

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

Look, NO ONE would trade for someone with this salary and term and harbour him as a SALARY DUMP. That is the unrealistic scenario. The only teams trading for Zaitsev will necessarily be one that believes he IS a rosterable D, hence they will be expecting to pay SOMETHING. If a Zaitsev deal gets done, there is zero chance you will see it getting done where a team takes him on as a salary dump; something will come back as a hockey trade.
GMs often have different thoughts then a fanbase or an analyst. This is not unusual or prohibitive of a deal and history demonstrates this clearly.

"Salary dump" and "rosterable" can be put in the same sentence (Though 'rosterable' isn't a word, so it probably shouldn't...). I would never say that 100% of cap dumps don't still end up in the NHL, because they often do.

Here's a short list of reasons why he's a cap dump though:
-Toronto needs to shed cap. In this case, Zaitsev is the mediocre player that you're shedding, and he's owed a ton of money. Therefore, he's a cap dump.
-Nobody is going to step in to save the Leafs from themselves. If Zaitsev is moving, it's because the Leafs need to move him. Therefore, he's a cap dump.
-Zaitsev is a bottom pairing dman on any team with a solid D core. If this is the case, he's being overpaid, and is therefore a cap dump.

May 10, 2019 at 3:37 p.m.

#18

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

As for Marner, I think he'll get a bridge. 3x9 works, or maybe they go 5 years with him and he gets 10.5. An 8 year deal would be huge. 12 maybe? I don't think he wants an 8 year deal.

I'm sorry, I didn't know that Mitch Marner was the best player in the NHL. I thought he was just a very good young player, probably elite, who came off a really good season where he had a lot of power play success and played with a bonafide elite center.
I don't understand how people believe that this guy should be paid more money than any player except Connor McDavid. They should honestly trade him or take the compensation if someone offers him that, or let him stew as an RFA. I'd be shopping him to see what I could get if his demands held at close to $10M for a long term deal as is. Wouldn't necessarily trade him but I'd see what offers were.
I would say the unjustified and crazy scenario is paying this guy McDavid money when every comparable says otherwise and he's an RFA.

May 10, 2019 at 3:38 p.m.

#19

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

Yea, he'd have to waive it. I agree that's the biggest "if". Again, not a prediction of what is going to happen, just an example of what I would try to do. Players have waived no-trades before and if the Leafs made it known that they didn't want him around then he might decide it's alright to leave. Most likely a floor/internal cap team would be interested in him if you could get him to waive; I guess OTT, NYR, ANA, maybe NYI?

Here is the problem: Marleau is playing for one reason, a stanley cup. He isn't playing just to play, he isn't playing for the last paycheck. He's made it clear he wants to keep playing, and that the reason he's playing is for a stanley cup, and he loves playing for the leafs. Now, let's just say in a hypothetical world (I think there's no chance of this), he would agree to waive his NMC, the only destinations he would agree to would be stanley cup contenders. Great. Only problem is, Stanley cup contenders don't have 6.25 million in cap space kicking around. Toronto is stuck with him.

May 10, 2019 at 3:40 p.m.

#20

Bcarlo25

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

I'm sorry, I didn't know that Mitch Marner was the best player in the NHL. I thought he was just a very good young player, probably elite, who came off a really good season where he had a lot of power play success and played with a bonafide elite center.
I don't understand how people believe that this guy should be paid more money than any player except Connor McDavid. They should honestly trade him or take the compensation if someone offers him that, or let him stew as an RFA. I'd be shopping him to see what I could get if his demands held at close to $10M for a long term deal as is. Wouldn't necessarily trade him but I'd see what offers were.
I would say the unjustified and crazy scenario is paying this guy McDavid money when every comparable says otherwise and he's an RFA.

He won't get 8 years. Matthews was demanding 13.8 for 8 years. They settled on 5. It will likely be 3 or 5 years of marner. 9 for the 3, 10-10.5 for the 5. They gave Matthews 11.634, Marner isn't taking under 10 in a long term deal, nor should he.

May 10, 2019 at 3:41 p.m.

#21

Lenny7

Joined: Jan. 2017

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

Yea, he'd have to waive it. I agree that's the biggest "if". Again, not a prediction of what is going to happen, just an example of what I would try to do. Players have waived no-trades before and if the Leafs made it known that they didn't want him around then he might decide it's alright to leave. Most likely a floor/internal cap team would be interested in him if you could get him to waive; I guess OTT, NYR, ANA, maybe NYI?

By any chance, are you just throwing team names out there and trying to make him stick somewhere now? Apart from Ottawa (who he wouldn't waive for), the other three teams that you named all either have their own potential cap issues (Anaheim if Kesler doesn't go on LTIR), or have the money to go out and sign an actual big name (NYR/NYI).

Next it'll be "Well Arizona is a cap floor team, so they should give up Chychrun so that they can get to the cap floor with Marleau".

Come on man.

May 10, 2019 at 3:42 p.m.

#22

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Lenny7

"Salary dump" and "rosterable" can be put in the same sentence (Though 'rosterable' isn't a word, so it probably shouldn't...). I would never say that 100% of cap dumps don't still end up in the NHL, because they often do.

Here's a short list of reasons why he's a cap dump though:
-Toronto needs to shed cap. In this case, Zaitsev is the mediocre player that you're shedding, and he's owed a ton of money. Therefore, he's a cap dump.
-Nobody is going to step in to save the Leafs from themselves. If Zaitsev is moving, it's because the Leafs need to move him. Therefore, he's a cap dump.
-Zaitsev is a bottom pairing dman on any team with a solid D core. If this is the case, he's being overpaid, and is therefore a cap dump.

Zaitsev has 5 years left. Can you name a historical cap dump deal that happened with this kind of term left? I can't.
You wouldn't trade him to a team with a "solid" RHD side. You'd trade him to one that has no one there but an injured Stephen Johns, plenty of cap room and a window they perceive as closing. So the Stars make sense. Reiterate: anyone trading for him necessarily believes he is a top4 player. It doesn't matter what the Leafs think of him. It matters what the other team thinks. Maybe no one out there wants him, but if they don't he's not moving. Not as a cap dump, unless the Leafs are throwing top prospects and 1st rounders into it. It cost Teuvo Teravainen+ to to dump two years of injured Bryan Bickell. The price to "dump" Zaitsev is prohibitive.

May 10, 2019 at 3:46 p.m.

#23

handsomeIAN

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Quoting: Lenny7

By any chance, are you just throwing team names out there and trying to make him stick somewhere now? Apart from Ottawa (who he wouldn't waive for), the other three teams that you named all either have their own potential cap issues (Anaheim if Kesler doesn't go on LTIR), or have the money to go out and sign an actual big name (NYR/NYI).

Next it'll be "Well Arizona is a cap floor team, so they should give up Chychrun so that they can get to the cap floor with Marleau".

Come on man.

ANA has an internal cap, so I mentioned them. They also seem pretty dumb so who knows, maybe they think Marleau is good. Lou is the one that signed him and has the cap space. It was stupid to sign him then so I wouldn't rule out him acquiring him now. NYR, I'm not sure what they will be doing. I think that you can rebuild teams pretty quick but if they were looking to tank they could be a floor team. Unlikely though, I agree they're probably hunting. OTT is the best fit really.
I don't think it makes sense for ARZ.

May 10, 2019 at 3:50 p.m.

#24

handsomeIAN

Thread Starter

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Quoting: Bcarlo25

He won't get 8 years. Matthews was demanding 13.8 for 8 years. They settled on 5. It will likely be 3 or 5 years of marner. 9 for the 3, 10-10.5 for the 5. They gave Matthews 11.634, Marner isn't taking under 10 in a long term deal, nor should he.

Matthews is a lot better than Marner, though. I could see a shorter deal happening if he wants to bet on himself and get paid again (probably going to see more players do this going forward) but that's coming on a discount. I would certainly not be bridging him at $9MAAV/3 years.

May 10, 2019 at 3:52 p.m.

#25

Bcarlo25

Joined: May 2018

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Quoting: handsomeIAN

Matthews is a lot better than Marner, though. I could see a shorter deal happening if he wants to bet on himself and get paid again (probably going to see more players do this going forward) but that's coming on a discount. I would certainly not be bridging him at $9MAAV/3 years.

Well, it's either that, or lose the player.

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