The Lucic contract is the worst in the NHL, but I don"t know if they should give up a first round pick just to get rid of it.

A midround first for Edmonton not having to retain on the contract is a price I would consider. It's likely that Edmonton could give up less / get more back in the deal, but I prefer to overshoot my values and come down based on feedback.

Not sure if I agree with what you've done but one thing I clearly don't agree with is retaining 2 Mil on Russell even after acquiring Reimer. If we're getting Reimer back, we should not have to retain any money on Russell. You're basically paying him 5.4M for 2 years.

Pysyk and Russell are pretty comparable although Pysyk is RHD and Russell is 1M overpaid.

It's just due to the sparse criticism I've received from the deal, and more to show that Edmonton is more than capable of retaining if it's absolutely mandatory. I'd be more comfortable with $1M retained, but I agree that the year 1 savings Florida gets without retention is more than compensation enough.

Before you trade #8, consider some of the guys that were picked 8-10 between 2011-2015:

8)
Couterier, 2011
Pouliot, 2012
Ristolainen, 2013
W. Nylander, 2014
Werenski, 2015

9)
Hamilton, 2011
Trouba, 2012
Horvat, 2013
Ehlers, 2014
Meier, 2015

10)
Brodin, 2011
Koekkoek, 2012
Nichushkin, 2013
Ritchie, 2014
Rantanen, 2015

Do you really think the return is worthwhile?

God I hope none of this happens.

If it means dumping Lucic without sacrificing total draft capital or retaining salary, then I think it's absolutely worth considering.

The problem with looking at this through the lens of "here's what you're missing out on at #8 for Lucic" without considering the return is you're ignoring players selected in the 2nd and 3rd Rounds. They aren't as likely to pan out as whoever is available at #8, but to discredit those players and their chance at developing - mind you that not every top-10 pick is a bonafide star - takes away from the argument as a whole.

For every Rantanen and Meier, there's a Derrick Pouliot or Valeri Nichushkin. None of Boldy, Caufield, Krebs, Dach, or Zegras are guaranteed superstardom and it's likely that all four of those players are two years out at minimum. You can sacrifice what they might become 730 days after the moment they're drafted in order to alleviate the cap hell and bare prospect pool Edmonton currently features (there isn't much left after the current wave graduates) or you can continue to be bogged down by a dead cap hit and take one skilled prospect.

I strongly believe in the numbers Afanaseyev put up, and Wheeler vouches for Firstov but preaches patience. I have no more patience for the Oilers continuing to employ Milan Lucic and the half-assed efforts he maintains on a nightly basis. It's absolutely fine to see that price as too much to pay (and I have noted that I probably give up far too much in the Ottawa trade), but the trades themselves are more than dumping Lucic for the #8 pick.

no need to trade up. In this draft 8th to 16th...its so wide open Dont see the value of that. Especially Avs with the 4th, they will get their main guy with that pick and then take BPA at 16. They have 4 picks in the Top 63 this year...wont see them trading up

There's a noticeable drop-off after 12. If Colorado wanted to take Byram at #4 and still come out with a bonafide top-6 forward, that would be the way to do it.

This isn't even remotely close to being true. I listed ALL of the players taken. There's ONE bad pick at #8 and NONE at #9.


That's not the point. All are likely to be better than Dzingel (the guy you signed with Lucic's cap space), and guaranteed to be cheaper for many years.

If you're looking to win NOW, go for it. But that's not a great action plan when your superstar players are just 22/23 and signed for many years to come.

nah...they arent doing that. Its not Sakics or the Avs style. They trade back constantly. IF anything they would move the 16th to target Knight in the late 1st top of the 2nd.

The track record at pick #9 is fascinating, but considering circumstance the #8-10 window should be considered, and by howdy are the selections at #10 bad outside of Rantanen. The Brodin pick was fine, but I'd argue Edmonton selecting Klefbom at #19 was much more shrewd. How you figure I'm missing the point is beyond me; I mentioned players you listed, just at #10 instead of #9. Draft boards are exceptionally fluid, and until the actual day of the draft, I don't necessarily believe in the idea of consensus rankings. Team and/or organizational needs do play a role and strictly abiding by picking the BPA is never something that can be truly done. Your example of showing players chosen between #8-10 is a good way of looking at how teams are going to view players available in that window. Vancouver will probably rank Soderstrom above most of the forwards in this group due to not having a long-term top prospect at RD, even though they just drafted a defenceman last draft. The Kings are in a position where they might have to strongly consider one of Turcotte, Cozens, or Dach over Byram because there's a strong chance that Vilardi is not going to play professional hockey if his back issues can't be resolved quickly.

You are right though: this is more of a "win-now" and it's not at all what I expect Holland to do. I will note that while the ceilings of the players available at #8 will be higher than Dzingel's, the downside of having said skilled prospect is that you still have Lucic or some combination of lost assets and dead cap space equating to $6M or greater. I guess it boils down to how much value you see in addition via subtraction.



Which is something I'd actually like to see them do too, but without moving the 16th Pick. I think if he's their guy, there's little risk in moving down to select him. I've seen Knight as high as 13 on some boards, and to risk him not being there by the late 1st is unnecessary.

I'd also argue that any other team than Edmonton would not value Ristolainen as a "great" pick at #8. He's a fine point producer, but definitely has not reached anything close to his potential in Buffalo.