A look at some realistic possibilities for the offseason.
The first and most important decision will be making choices on which of the many RFAs to commit to long term, and which ones don't fit in the plans. Blais, Sundqvist, Barbashev, Edmundson, Fabbri, Binnington, Sanford are all RFAs, with Binnington, Sundqvist, Edmundson, and Sanford being arbitration eligible.
Binnington is obviously a guy to whom you want to commit to long term, but I don't think a max term contract is likely. I'm going 4 yrs/$4.5MM AAV which brings his pay into the range of some of the top guys in the league, without matching a massive UFA deal a guy like Bobrovsky will get on the open market. Also it demonstrates a stronger pay commitment than the one the Blues carelessly handed to Jake Allen a few seasons ago. Term and dollars could vary slightly but I think this is in the right ballpark.
Edmundson will be looking for a long term deal in his last year of RFA status. GMDA has a difficult decision here. On one hand, he's only 25 years old and has played with plenty of promise in the past. On the other hand, he's now caught a bit of the injury bug, and his play noticeably regressed in 2019-20. I think he's a prime bounce back candidate, and a 6 yr/$4.5M AAV deal could turn out to be a fantastic bargain down the line, and if not it is a reasonably movable contract. Overall a good bet on a player that is much younger than one would expect given his already significant NHL experience.
Blais, Barbashev, and Sundqvist all played very well in 2018-19 and have earned raises. I have each resigning for 2-3 years at modest AAV that still recognizes their contributions to the club. Possible the Blues could try to go a bit longer on Sundqvist similar to Edmundson because he's in his last year of RFA, but he's got less documented history of success. I think the Blues can get him done for 3/$2.0 but if he gets all the way to arbitration he's probably getting 1/$3.0 and then UFA after next season.
That leaves Fabbri and Sanford. Starting with the latter, Sanford had more than his fair share of opportunity to stick with the club and despite some bright spots just wasn't able to capitalize the way others did. He'll make a great 4th liner with upside to another team with less depth. Fabbri is a tougher case -- obviously you've got major injury concerns, but he looked pretty good when in the lineup at the end of the season. I have the Blues giving him a one year "prove it" deal and an opportunity to stay healthy and earn a payday.
The next pressing question is Jake Allen. I think it is about 50/50 that the Blues keep Allen around for 2019-20. But in this scenario, the Oilers and Blues trade problematic contracts with similar AAV and term. The Oilers need a 2nd goalie and can't afford the UFAs on the market. Allen is a reasonable gamble for them as he has historically performed well in 1A/2A situations. The Blues certainly don't need Russell but Edmonton doesn't make this trade work without dumping some salary themselves, so the Blues get a 2nd thrown in for their troubles. As for Sanford, as discussed above he doesn't likely fit in the Blues plans at this point. Edmonton can certainly find room for him on the 4th line at a minimum. To backup Binnington now that Allen is gone, the Blues bring back old friend Brian Elliott on a 2 year deal while Husso works to get back on track. Keep in mind that this deal is just representative; there are any number of teams in need of a 2nd goalie where a deal like this could come together. The Oilers are just the most obvious.
Sticking with the Oilers, another interesting idea is Allen+Fabbri(?) for that awful Lucic contract + Edmonton's 1st rounder, with Edmonton retaining 40%ish of Lucic's salary. Lucic for 4 more years at $3.5M is not good, but he could feasibly fill a Maroon-style role and the Blues would get back into the 1st round of a very deep draft while also solving their Allen problem. $3.5M AAV for Lucic is a hell of a lot more useful to the Blues than $4.25M AAV for Allen, even if it lasts two additional seasons.
Looking at the roster now after all of that, you are bringing back a team that is largely the same as the one that finished 2019. Overall this is a quiet offseason that doesn't rock the boat and that counts on the team that made (and hopefully won!) the Stanley Cup in 2018-19 to contend again with another year of experience under their belt. Other possibilities to look for are a long term extension for Pietrangelo, and potentially a trade of a guy like Schenn given the glut of centers on the roster. Trading Schenn for a high draft pick would allow the Blues to reload a bit in the farm, and free up enough cap to go after a guy like Jeff Skinner or Gustav Nyquist.
Maybe. 2/$2.0 is fair...it's less about the cash, and more about the roster spot. Blues have a lot of young guys that need time in the lineup. I think it is more likely Maroon comes back if the Blues move one of their centers in the offseason.
Blues already did the Kris Russell experiment. I'd pass. Bortz doesn't get enough love. He exactly what a 3rd pair Dman should be, plus he's cheap and willing to beat a teammate's azz if he doesn't live up to expectations. Russell is a smurf, and we need fewer of those, not more.
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