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Broberg

Created by: BeterChiarelli
Team: 2019-20 Edmonton Oilers
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 12, 2019
Published: Jun. 12, 2019
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Draft:
#8. (LD) Philip Broberg (AIK, Allsvenskan)
#15 (via MON). (C) Alex Newhook (Victoria, BCHL)

Used the Pronman ranking: Broberg's name has been gaining a lot of traction (not the guy I'd immediately jump for but he's not the worst pick at 8?) around the media beat in Edmonton. If he pans out, Edmonton's defense could be phenomenal for over a decade. Toss-up between Newhook and Knight with the Montreal pick: opted for the forward as Starrett, Skinner, and Rodrigue do show legitimate potential with their development thus far, and Wells could very well pan out if loaned to another AHL team to get the minutes he desperately needs. Acquiring a RHC in Suzuki in the Klefbom deal definitely helps offset not acquiring a Zegras, Caufield, or Boldy, and giving Roslovic top-6 minutes is more apt to lead to production than betting on Puljujarvi in that role. I'd look at signing Broberg and allowing him to stay in the SHL until after the World Juniors, at which point, I'd be wanting him adapting to North American ice on the bottom pair of the Condors' roster. I'd grant Newhook a year in the NCAA and look at signing him to join the Condors for the playoffs and getting an additional year in the AHL. Both Broberg and Newhook could be full-time Oilers by the 21-22 season.

I've been stewing on the Eriksson-Lucic-Neal 3-way trade for about a week now trying to figure out how to balance it as much as possible for all three sides. This is my conclusion: Edmonton ridding themselves of Lucic and acquiring marginal cap space over the remainder of his contract is likely as good as it gets. Neal is likely to be a decent powerplay option and hopefully finds a way to contribute in the bottom-6. It also solves the issue of Eriksson being unlikely to waive for Edmonton. Vancouver takes on the worst player in the deal and gets rewarded for it. Calgary gets a better PK forward, but does end up eating a tiny bit of cap space in the process, but is also getting out from their financial hell a year sooner than Edmonton or Vancouver.

The Winnipeg trade is something kind of off the top of my head: it frees up over $3M for the Jets this season and both teams find a resolution to problematic youngsters on their wings. I opted for Sekera over Russell in this case because I think he's the more valuable of the two despite his injuries, and is likely to be more stabilizing on their back-end. His buyout penalty after next season isn't egregious either, so if Winnipeg feels otherwise after this season, it's not overly expensive. Unsure about the Vegas deal: they're in a tight spot cap-wise, and considering how bad some teams got stung by expansion, I doubt that there are teams willing to pay a premium for either player. A high second, roster defenceman, and a prospect that doesn't intend on signing with the Oilers - to me at least - seems like enough. I've made the Florida deal a thousand times, and that's about the going rate for a top-pairing LHD with term and a sub-$5M cap hit.

If it looks like Edmonton's in an absolute dogfight for a playoff spot come TDL20 - and the trio of Jones, Lagesson, and Marody are excelling beyond expectations - I'd look at flipping Eakin and Kulikov at the deadline for picks and still making a push with the roster they currently have. Either Edmonton just barely misses out, brings in more picks and gives those specific rookies the next step in their development before returning them to an AHL playoff run, or Edmonton makes the playoffs and still has additional capital at the draft. Bakersfield is deep enough that losing Marody and Lagesson shouldn't cripple their season, and upon elimination, would be able to return and help contribute to another deep run.

Reimer to be bought out next summer.

AHL setup:
Benson - Marody - Yamamoto
Malone - Suzuki - Currie
McLeod - Brodziak - Russell
Safin - Hebig - Maksimov
Vesey

Lagesson - Bouchard
Samorukov - Day
Nakyva - Lowe
Manning

Starrett - Skinner
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$900,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$825,000
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Broberg, Philip
3$925,000
Nakyva, Kristian
1$925,000
Trades
1.
EDM
  1. Suzuki, Nick
  2. 2019 1st round pick (MTL)
2.
EDM
  1. Eakin, Cody
  2. Miller, Colin
  3. 2019 5th round pick (MIN)
VGK
  1. Benning, Matthew
  2. Marino, John [Reserve List]
  3. 2019 2nd round pick (EDM)
3.
EDM
  1. Reimer, James
  2. 2019 3rd round pick (EDM)
4.
5.
EDM
  1. Eriksson, Loui ($3,000,000 retained)
  2. 2021 6th round pick (VAN)
VAN
  1. Lucic, Milan ($3,000,000 retained)
6.
EDM
  1. Neal, James ($2,875,000 retained)
  2. 2021 4th round pick (CGY)
CGY
  1. Eriksson, Loui
  2. 2021 6th round pick (VAN)
7.
EDM
VAN
  1. 2021 4th round pick (CGY)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
Buried
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2019
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the MTL
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the NYI
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the MIN
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2020
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
2021
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
Logo of the EDM
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$83,000,000$78,632,498$0$282,500$4,367,502

Roster

Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$8,500,000$8,500,000
C, LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$12,500,000$12,500,000
C
UFA - 7
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,950,000$1,950,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,125,000$4,125,000
LW, RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$6,000,000$6,000,000
LW, C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$925,000$925,000
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
$3,850,000$3,850,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Calgary Flames
$2,875,000$2,875,000
RW, LW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$900,000$900,000
LW, C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$675,000$675,000
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$2,835,000$2,835,000
RW, C
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$3,200,000$3,200,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,166,666$4,166,666
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$4,500,000$4,500,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,333,333$4,333,333
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
$3,875,000$3,875,000
RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$720,000$720,000 (Performance Bonus$70,000$70K)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$1,000,000$1,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Florida Panthers
$3,400,000$3,400,000
G
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
$825,000$825,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$870,000$870,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
$700,000$700,000
LW
UFA - 2

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Jun. 12, 2019 at 1:52 p.m.
#1
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I'd rather jump out of a moving plane than do that Klefbom trade. (With a parachute of course, Im not that dramatic)

Klefbom is not worth the 15OV and a player taken 13th OV just a couple years ago who is a top prospect.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 1:54 p.m.
#2
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Quoting: F50marco
I'd rather jump out of a moving plane than do that Klefbom trade. (With a parachute of course, Im not that dramatic)

Klefbom is not worth the 15OV and a player taken 13th OV just a couple years ago who is a top prospect.


Realistically, what do you expect the price on Klefbom to be? I want Suzuki to be a part of the return, does downgrading the first to a second come off as more rational?
Jun. 12, 2019 at 2:01 p.m.
#3
KFTW
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Realistically, what do you expect the price on Klefbom to be? I want Suzuki to be a part of the return, does downgrading the first to a second come off as more rational?


Probably the 15th plus a medium prospect. Probably also the value for Ghost
Jun. 12, 2019 at 2:03 p.m.
#4
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Quoting: F50marco
I'd rather jump out of a moving plane than do that Klefbom trade. (With a parachute of course, Im not that dramatic)

Klefbom is not worth the 15OV and a player taken 13th OV just a couple years ago who is a top prospect.


If the plane is moving down the runway at 150 mph, that parachute isn't going to do much good.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 2:10 p.m.
#5
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I doubt the MTL trade works out, so Newhook at 15 might be out of the question. As for Broberg... I wouldnt suggest wanting him. Hes got a 2nd pair ceiling, and is likely the 4th or 5th best Dman in the class. Top 10 is Byram and the rest Forwards, so I would suggest either taking a winger(Boldy, Zegras, Caufield) or trade down to 10-14 range and pick up Soderstrom or Seider.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 2:54 p.m.
#6
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Realistically, what do you expect the price on Klefbom to be? I want Suzuki to be a part of the return, does downgrading the first to a second come off as more rational?


I think and I know this rubs Oiler fans the wrong way but Klefbom is overrated on here by many. DISCALIMER: HE IS STILL A GOOD PLAYER AND I WOULD TAKE HIM ON MY TEAM FOR SURE. But my goodness other than that one year where he actually stayed healthy and he actually put up 30+ points, he hasn't done anything to warrant this over exaggeration of his value.

If Klefbom is worth a lottery pick (albeit the worst one) and a prospect like Suzuki (drafted high in the first round recently and by all accounts has dominated juniors every year). What would Seth Jones be worth? What would Morgan Reilly be worth? Five 1st rounders and Kappo Kakko?

Hey if some team pays that return for Klefbom, good for you guys! I just can't fathom any team paying the price for a decent good young player but by all accounts one that hasn't done all that much is his career thus far and he is 26 years old in July. Not 21. His statistical best years are closing in on him fast.

Now to answer your question, if Suzuki is your goal, i'd rather search elsewhere and see what else i could get for him. Looking at what EDM would probably want/need, i'd offer prospects like Primeau (one of the better goalie prospects in hockey), Juulsen (a young unproven former 1st round pick RHD) and a future 1st in 2020. But that is based on EDM wanting picks and prospects only for Klefbom. It would be a whole different offer if they wanted ready now talent. Probably a winger like Tatar if that were the case.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 3:20 p.m.
#7
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Quoting: csick
Probably the 15th plus a medium prospect. Probably also the value for Ghost


Define medium prospect. Primeau isn't high on my list - he's obviously talented yes, but Edmonton already has 3 goalie prospects that project to have NHL roles in some capacity - and Juulsen has some intrigue but in a position where Edmonton is also about to have a logjam.

Again, Suzuki was the focal point of a return, and I'd be perfectly fine downgrading the pick in order to acquire him.

Quoting: Rixy17
I doubt the MTL trade works out, so Newhook at 15 might be out of the question. As for Broberg... I wouldnt suggest wanting him. Hes got a 2nd pair ceiling, and is likely the 4th or 5th best Dman in the class. Top 10 is Byram and the rest Forwards, so I would suggest either taking a winger(Boldy, Zegras, Caufield) or trade down to 10-14 range and pick up Soderstrom or Seider.


A lot of agencies have him ranked in their top-10 and have been notoriously correct in the past. A lot of Hedman comparisons, but the trick would be a matter of development. Development hasn't been the Oilers strong suit over the past forever, but lately, they've given prospects drafted outside of the 1st Round the necessary runway to become what they were projected to be. They've just gone and added Holland to that ideology. I doubt development is about to be as sore of a spot for the franchise as it used to be.

Broberg is a phenomenal skater: that's one of the hardest parts of his trade. Everything else can be taught and practiced. I wouldn't sleep on him, but I do agree that it's hard to justify him over some of the forwards available.

Quoting: F50marco
I think and I know this rubs Oiler fans the wrong way but Klefbom is overrated on here by many. DISCALIMER: HE IS STILL A GOOD PLAYER AND I WOULD TAKE HIM ON MY TEAM FOR SURE. But my goodness other than that one year where he actually stayed healthy and he actually put up 30+ points, he hasn't done anything to warrant this over exaggeration of his value.

If Klefbom is worth a lottery pick (albeit the worst one) and a prospect like Suzuki (drafted high in the first round recently and by all accounts has dominated juniors every year). What would Seth Jones be worth? What would Morgan Reilly be worth? Five 1st rounders and Kappo Kakko?

Hey if some team pays that return for Klefbom, good for you guys! I just can't fathom any team paying the price for a decent good young player but by all accounts one that hasn't done all that much is his career thus far and he is 26 years old in July. Not 21. His statistical best years are closing in on him fast.

Now to answer your question, if Suzuki is your goal, i'd rather search elsewhere and see what else i could get for him. Looking at what EDM would probably want/need, i'd offer prospects like Primeau (one of the better goalie prospects in hockey), Juulsen (a young unproven former 1st round pick RHD) and a future 1st in 2020. But that is based on EDM wanting picks and prospects only for Klefbom. It would be a whole different offer if they wanted ready now talent. Probably a winger like Tatar if that were the case.


I find your assessment on Klefbom fair, I'm just concerned that you're putting all of your assessment of him into games played and production. Comparable defencemen on the UFA market would be earning near double what he is, and I know that his contract on it's own carries value. It's not something that should totally sway the deal in Edmonton's favour, but with contracts Montreal has coming up, it carries some lucrative value. Was I overly ambitious with the initial ask? For sure, but with Evans and Poehling coming up through the system, is the loss of Suzuki still to large a burden? Primeau and Juulsen, while players I too would want on my team, aren't filling immediate needs for the Oilers: Edmonton has 3 netminders with varying degree of NHL projection between them and the addition of Miller and Persson gives Edmonton a comfortable logjam at RD before looking at Bouchard and Berglund. Forwards would be the ask here: Suzuki's handedness, position, and the need to roll 3 top-6 equivalent lines in order to contend in today's NHL make him incredibly attractive.

Does downgrading the 15th Pick to a 2nd or 3rd Round Pick make the deal easier to stomach? Should Edmonton look to add something? Does this deal go through with Nurse > Klefbom?

And to answer your question regarding Jones/Reilly, if offer sheets weren't considered so taboo among GMs, and should either player be eligible to sign one right now, would they be worth 4 1sts? I'd argue no, but the tier immediately below (two firsts, a second, and a third) is awfully enticing.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 3:41 p.m.
#8
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Quoting: F50marco
I think and I know this rubs Oiler fans the wrong way but Klefbom is overrated on here by many. DISCALIMER: HE IS STILL A GOOD PLAYER AND I WOULD TAKE HIM ON MY TEAM FOR SURE. But my goodness other than that one year where he actually stayed healthy and he actually put up 30+ points, he hasn't done anything to warrant this over exaggeration of his value.

If Klefbom is worth a lottery pick (albeit the worst one) and a prospect like Suzuki (drafted high in the first round recently and by all accounts has dominated juniors every year). What would Seth Jones be worth? What would Morgan Reilly be worth? Five 1st rounders and Kappo Kakko?

Hey if some team pays that return for Klefbom, good for you guys! I just can't fathom any team paying the price for a decent good young player but by all accounts one that hasn't done all that much is his career thus far and he is 26 years old in July. Not 21. His statistical best years are closing in on him fast.

Now to answer your question, if Suzuki is your goal, i'd rather search elsewhere and see what else i could get for him. Looking at what EDM would probably want/need, i'd offer prospects like Primeau (one of the better goalie prospects in hockey), Juulsen (a young unproven former 1st round pick RHD) and a future 1st in 2020. But that is based on EDM wanting picks and prospects only for Klefbom. It would be a whole different offer if they wanted ready now talent. Probably a winger like Tatar if that were the case.


Sportsnet ranks Klefbom 34th best defenseman in the league.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/definitive-ranking-nhls-top-40-defencemen-three-seasons-40-21/
Jun. 12, 2019 at 3:46 p.m.
#9
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Kulikov and Miller in the top-4 is a recipe for disaster.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 3:47 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Define medium prospect. Primeau isn't high on my list - he's obviously talented yes, but Edmonton already has 3 goalie prospects that project to have NHL roles in some capacity - and Juulsen has some intrigue but in a position where Edmonton is also about to have a logjam.

Again, Suzuki was the focal point of a return, and I'd be perfectly fine downgrading the pick in order to acquire him.



A lot of agencies have him ranked in their top-10 and have been notoriously correct in the past. A lot of Hedman comparisons, but the trick would be a matter of development. Development hasn't been the Oilers strong suit over the past forever, but lately, they've given prospects drafted outside of the 1st Round the necessary runway to become what they were projected to be. They've just gone and added Holland to that ideology. I doubt development is about to be as sore of a spot for the franchise as it used to be.

Broberg is a phenomenal skater: that's one of the hardest parts of his trade. Everything else can be taught and practiced. I wouldn't sleep on him, but I do agree that it's hard to justify him over some of the forwards available.



I find your assessment on Klefbom fair, I'm just concerned that you're putting all of your assessment of him into games played and production. Comparable defencemen on the UFA market would be earning near double what he is, and I know that his contract on it's own carries value. It's not something that should totally sway the deal in Edmonton's favour, but with contracts Montreal has coming up, it carries some lucrative value. Was I overly ambitious with the initial ask? For sure, but with Evans and Poehling coming up through the system, is the loss of Suzuki still to large a burden? Primeau and Juulsen, while players I too would want on my team, aren't filling immediate needs for the Oilers: Edmonton has 3 netminders with varying degree of NHL projection between them and the addition of Miller and Persson gives Edmonton a comfortable logjam at RD before looking at Bouchard and Berglund. Forwards would be the ask here: Suzuki's handedness, position, and the need to roll 3 top-6 equivalent lines in order to contend in today's NHL make him incredibly attractive.

Does downgrading the 15th Pick to a 2nd or 3rd Round Pick make the deal easier to stomach? Should Edmonton look to add something? Does this deal go through with Nurse > Klefbom?

And to answer your question regarding Jones/Reilly, if offer sheets weren't considered so taboo among GMs, and should either player be eligible to sign one right now, would they be worth 4 1sts? I'd argue no, but the tier immediately below (two firsts, a second, and a third) is awfully enticing.


Fair enough, I was attempting to look at what EDM might need but if you think those positions are ok as is, all good. It could be forward prospects instead. However as good as Klefbom's contract is, a detractor is his health. If a quarter of the time you need a capable backup plan top 4 dman to replace him while he's injured, you need to factor that into his value in a negative way. The looking at the time he is actually there as what we've seen, other than one year, it hasn't been anything to ride home about. if it came down to Nurse instead, I think that changes some things. Nurse has proven to have better value IMO thus far. I think maybe Suzuki could be involved in a Nurse deal but it would have to be once we know his new contract.

Your last comment is exactly my point in determining Klefbom's value. If you state Jones or Reilly are worth two 1sts, a 2nd and a 3rd, how in heavens hell is Klefbom worth a lottery 1st and a player taken in the lottery range only a couple years ago? (Given that he must be worth the equivalent to a similar rated 1st in 2019 so assume the 14th and 15th picks receptively). But as you said if you drop the value down to a 2nd or 3rd does it still make it plausible? Not for Suzuki IMO.

If Reilly and Jones are worth that to you, Klefbom is worth a 1st 2020 and a 2nd 2020 to me. But that is based on offer sheet compensation so the picks are next years, when If I were MTL, I'd be more willing to give up a 1st than this years.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 3:55 p.m.
#11
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Quoting: CD282


Did you look at some of the other players on that list ? This right here is why the dinosaurs like McGuire get so annoyed with analytics. This is the equivalent to McGuire saying Kevin Miller and Erik Gudbransen is a top 4 dmen.... Being extreme on both sides if you ask me.

Colin miller is 37th
Mike Green is 40th
Chris Tanev is 36th...
CD282 liked this.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 4:09 p.m.
#12
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Quoting: F50marco
Did you look at some of the other players on that list ? This right here is why the dinosaurs like McGuire get so annoyed with analytics. This is the equivalent to McGuire saying Kevin Miller and Erik Gudbransen is a top 4 dmen.... Being extreme on both sides if you ask me.

Colin miller is 37th
Mike Green is 40th
Chris Tanev is 36th...


To be fair he's taking 3 years data though, and Mike Green used to produce a lot of offense from the back end. Tanev is an amazing defender even if he doesn't get any points, and Miller is fantastic on the PP. I don't necessarily agree with the rankings, but he does talk about his methodology enough that you can pick out the features that YOU like and weight them however you want.

Get 10 experts in the room and ask them for a list of the top-40 anything in the league, you're going to get 10 different answers.
Jun. 12, 2019 at 4:37 p.m.
#13
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Quoting: CD282
To be fair he's taking 3 years data though, and Mike Green used to produce a lot of offense from the back end. Tanev is an amazing defender even if he doesn't get any points, and Miller is fantastic on the PP. I don't necessarily agree with the rankings, but he does talk about his methodology enough that you can pick out the features that YOU like and weight them however you want.

Get 10 experts in the room and ask them for a list of the top-40 anything in the league, you're going to get 10 different answers.


That is true. I may have my opinion of players but that by no means, means I'm right or i know more than someone else. People at the end of the day need to make up their own minds based on multiple feedback and just go with it.

Man, Tanev is another one I disagree wholeheartedly. Doesn't score. Can't stay healthy. Isn't overly physical. Isn't fast. Isn't this, isn't that. But you know what? He defends well.... rolling eyes

Ok I don't think he is garbage obviously but most times, good players are good at more than one thing. He is a defensive dman and that's it. There are a lot of decently good defensive dmen and guys who if they solely focused on their defensive games, would be more noteworthy at that area but they don't. They want to be better in all facets.

Vlasic is the perfect example of a defensive dman. He may be the most elite-est one in the league. Even he gets trashed on as too expensive for what he brings. What chance does Tanev have? Plays half the games and generates zero offense while he's on the ice.
 
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