Edited Jun. 17, 2019 at 11:50 p.m.
Quoting: tkecanuck341
Pavelski is 34. No one is going to give him a 6-year deal, in or out of San Jose. My guess is teams offer him 3, and he'll go with the highest offer or the team that's willing to throw in the 4th year. Additionally, he's not going to get $9M at age 34. His production will be on the decline. I can see a bidding war bringing it up to $7M over 4 years or $7½M over 3 years.
Nyquist has cracked 50pts only twice in his career. That's not worth $7½M. His next contract will likely be in the $5-6M range, and it won't necessarily be with San Jose.
Thornton has made it clear that he's playing in San Jose or not at all. He only made $5M last season, down from $8M the season prior. I can see them offering a $3M contract to Thornton, with part of that amount being bonuses for games played. If he doesn't want to take that, he will retire.
$4½M for Donskoi is too much. That's the same that Toffoli got, and Toffoli had a 30g/58p season in there as well as a Stanley Cup. Donskoi has topped out at 14g/37p. I can see him getting $3-3½M.
Labanc will probably sign a bridge deal in the 2-year, $4M range. He's an RFA and not arbitration eligible, so he doesn't have much negotiating power. He will get a bigger payday after he has a chance to crack 20 goals and gains arbitration rights.
I think they'll probably try and lock down Meier long term, but there's no chance he gets Draisaitl money. $6½-7M maybe. Draisaitl just put up 50 goals and 100 points on one of the worst teams in the league. Meier is good, but he's no Draisaitl.
Pavelski
Couture is 30 and they gave him $8,000,000 x 8 (which starts next season).
Doesn't that put SJS in the same predicament? (He's signed until he's 38/39).
Pavelski was at least as good as Couture this year too (probably better).
What will Couture be like at 34 with 4 years left ? (probably worse than Pavelski is today).
So Couture's contract is at least as risky, unless you think Pavelski drops of a cliff next year.
Nyquist
Nyquist had 60 points this year (his above contract is basically identical to E.Kanes after cap-growth).
E.Kane had 54 points last year (a career high) and signed for $7,000,000 x 7 years.
Skinner had 63 points this year (a career high) and signed for 9,000,000 x 8 years.
Eberle had 37 points this year and signed for $5,500,000 x 5 (the middle of your Nyquist projection).
Why is a 60 point 27 year old getting the same as a 37 point 29 year old (and not his comparable's)?
Thornton
Your guess is as valuable as mine (not valuable).
I gave him his UFA market value (on a 1-Year contract) and posed the question: "Who would be willing to take a discount?"
He played a full season this year and got 50+ points so I doubt SJS tries to force a $3,000,000 offer.
Donskoi
I will note Eberle's contract again ($5,500,000 x 5 years).
He had the EXACT same amount of points (37) as Donskoi this year and he's 2 years older.
If Donskoi wants a million LESS than Eberle per year with 2 years less term, he'll get it.
Also, Toffoli signed in 2017 after a 34 point season ($4,600,000 in 2017 = $5,100,000 in 2019)
Again, my example has Donskoi is signing for less than his direct comparable's (in 2019 dollars).
Meier
Why compare Draisaitl's production AFTER he signed to Meier's prduction BEFORE he's signed?
If Draisaitl was signing THIS year (he's going into the 3rd year of his deal) he'd get $11,000,000+ for his 100 point season.
If you compare Draisaitl's PRE-SIGNING season to Meier's current season, you'll notice that they're VERY similar.
And if you add 2 years of cap-growth (11%) you'll notice that Draisaitl's contract in today dollars = $9,500,000 x 8 years.
So Meier's is actually getting paid 11% less for similar production to Draisaitl (in my example).
All of your arguments seem to contain the same 3 logical fallacies:
1. You're not accounting for inflation (a $9,000,000 cap-hit today is equivalent to an $8,000,000 cap hit 2 years ago).
2. You think the RFA / UFA markets haven't changed in 2 years (good players are currently getting a much higher Cap % for whatever reason).
3. You think a comparable's post-signing improvements have implications (post signing stats have ZERO meaning as teams either get lucky or don't).
Here's a 2019 signing list:
$11,500,000 = Erik Karlsson (45 points / 0.85 PPG)
$ 9,000,000 = Jeff Skinner (63 points / 0.76 PPG)
$ 5,850,000 = Nick Schmaltz (25 points / 0.62 PPG)
$ 5,800,000 = Esa Lindell (32 points / 0.39 PPG)
$ 5,500,000 = Jordan Eberle (37 points / 0.47 PPG)
$ 5,250,000 = Jacob Silfverberg (43 points / 0.58 PPG)
Do these all seem unreasonably high? They are. Welcome to 2019.