Rantenen will get between 10-10.5 million on a 7-8 year term. Book it.

Or he'll get over 11 on 7-8 year deal. Why would he take less? Listen to every interview about this and players always say they support these other young guys making sure they get theirs. Why would Rantanen take less than Marner? My guess is they had some sort of framework in place for a 7-8 year deal, Rantanen has said he prefers term, but now that Marner has just under 11, Rantanen is getting more for 1 or 2 more years. Its just the math now. Point as well, no tax whatever, 5 year deal is 10+ and its more per year after. TO didn't really overpay as much as it is the Market's evolution. TO just happened to be at the front wave of it. Do you think Pastrnak doesn't wish he waited to get term? He could be entering year 3 of a bridge and looking at 10+. All of them are going to see it and thats just the world we live in.

Even on a shorter term, these guys are going to want pretty high value. So for Point, maybe something like 8 million for 2-3 years with a higher last year. Rantanen something similar for a 2-3 year deal.

Most fans/media believe marner contract is a pretty big overpay and is an outlier.

I think Sakic will be able to sell rantenen on taking slightly less money for the benefit of the team - I’m sure he’ll use Mackinnon making half of his market value as a selling point. I’m very confident he’ll make less than 11 mill on a 7-8 year term. We’ll find out soon enough.

This is hilariously optimistic.

Of course all the other rfas were waiting on Marner. But just because he got a crazy over pay and the others will want the same, doesn't mean they're going to get it. Something about getting blood from a stone... that kinda money just isn't there for those guys, or at least it isnt without the GMs either gutting their team to accomodate it or wrecking their cap structure.

I'm sticking with my take that Dubas over paid Mitch the way he did in order to end the madness. And I think he did that because it was the lesser of two evils.. i.e over pay him like crazy or deal with the ongoing insanity of Dreger, Ferris, all the Paul's and a fan base that was very quickly turning on Mitch in a way that was swinging Marner's manufactured narrative towards one that was painting him as an entitled problem player.

I actually think that what Dubas did was an attempt to manage the value of the asset (Mitch) while stabilizing the team dynamic I.e. the last thing the leafs need this year would be the distraction and media chaos that would have come from this thing dragging out any longer.

Marner got his crazy over pay because of the Toronto context and because of the ridiculous way his camp approached negotiations. I don't see the other rfas willing to adopt Marner's tactics and they don't play in the Toronto market.. meaning, that there won't be the 24/7 media knucklehead nonsense that we have and I doubt that the fan base in Colorado or Tampa is as rabid or obsessive as leaf nation.

The rfas can threaten to sit out until they get the Marner deal, but I doubt that they will. My take is that they all come in on reasonable deals under 10M aav with similar term to Marners deal. The only guy I could see sitting out to try to force a higher contract is Tkachuk . He comes from hockey royalty and doesn't need the money at all..

Anyways, that's my take, Logan. I could be wrong, it happens at the time. But I just can't see, say Sakic, giving his rfa Marner money, just because that's what Rantanen thinks is fair. I'd imagine that Sakic would let him sit before he signs him to a Marner deal, because he can. Hes not in Toronto...Dreger wont be stirring up drama nonstop and I doubt the Avs fanbase would go bananas about it either .

I did say marner will get 11 x 6 two days before he signed and I was just called a “leaf hater” ? . Marner was using his own teammates as a comparable - dubas also used the “we can and we will” statement last year which gave the RFAs leverage.

I'm not sure if the "we can and we will" statement created any leverage for Mitch. Dubas did deliver on that and the fact that he has them all for at least 5 yrs is pretty impressive to me.

I think what really won the day for Marner was the way his camp viewed the kid, the tactics they used and how far they were willing to take things. I tend to think that their view is delusional and that whatever extra coin they got because of it really wasnt worth it given the hit that his rep took. But hey, to each their own.

Ultimately though what are you going to do? You can't argue, or negotiate, with crazy.