I think they’ll make it based on how bad the division is, but I’m expecting a long and frustrating season. Scoring has always been an issue and we’ve never seen Tarasenko our for more than 5 games at a time. I think at some point we’ll be forced to make a trade.

Could be a good opportunity for someone else to grab the reigns. Thomas, Kostin, Blais maybe Kyrou even. It just takes one of those guys to become a full time top 6 player and the offset will be mitigated.

They don't need be 1st in the conference, they just need to get in.

Kostin isn't ready or gong to replace much production yet and why do we want Howard? Why make a trade to not replace Tarasenko's production?

Do you have a source for these rumors?
When did you hear these rumors:?

Detroit isn't trading Howard for Allen. Yes Howard 35 but he is still the better goalie and in my opinion Sanford doesn't make up for the difference in skill. Detroit has 10 players on the roster and 13 RFAs and 9 UFAs with contracts that expire at the end of the season. Allen has a cap hit $4.3M and Howard is on a 1yr deal so keeping Howard gives Detroit more flexibility.

No one can replace everything Tarasenko does. However, Kostin plays the game a similar style to Tarasenko (minus the skill set obviously) so I think of the young guys he's best suited for that position.

It was a rumor last year- https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/1664780, and something I think would be worth revisiting for both teams. Howard is unquestionably the better goalie despite his age considering the role he'd play in St. Louis. But, I think he's the most valuable asset available for trade on the Wings and a rebuilding team needs to capitalize on that. (They should have done so last year, not necessarily to the Blues but just in general) The problem is that most contending teams already have a good goaltender, so your options for trading him are already limited moreso than they would be for a winger/defenseman. (The only goaltender to change teams via trade last year was Keith Kinkaid, for a 5th in post-Seattle draft. I get that Howard is much better than him, but Sanford is also a roster player) The Sharks might be the only other team with questions in goal. But they'll want you to take Martin Jones. I recognize that the return might be a little low but idk how much else you're going to get, I don't think you have many other trade partners and you absolutely need to trade him. The Blues are in a unique position that they have a goaltender that they need to lose the last year of his contract to resign other guys, and have Husso pushing for time in the minors.

The cap hits are even, I retained salary on Allen so he costs the same as Howard.

"Gives Detroit more flexibility" - for what? Aren't you supposed to be bad? And don't you need a goalie for next year? I don't think the wings have any minor goalies ready to jump into to the bigs, feel free to correct me. You can resign Howard, probably for about the same cap hit as he was this year. But if you're trying to be bad, like....not to be mean to him, but Allen is your guy. And who knows, maybe a change of scenery helps Allen. And if it doesn't it's one year.

Chopper02 answered the first part of your question. There's very few players available that could reasonably replace Tarasenko, and all of them would be pure rentals because we have no cap space to resign them. So you'd be giving up a first (in a good draft year), a roster player, and a prospect for like, idk, two months of Taylor Hall at best, and then he walks next year, that just doesn't seem worth it to me.

Howard is a good goalie, has playoff experience, and would be a good backup at worst for any cup contending team that needed one. But that trade is more because we need to get out of the last year of Allen's contract to stay compliant next offseason. Howard is UFA at the end of this season. Detroit was linked to Allen before, so I say let's try to make something happen there again.

But Howard's cap hit for next year $0.

Detroit has 10 players on the roster and 13 RFAs and 9 UFAs with contracts that expire at the end of the season. I pasted this here because you obviously didn't see it in my first post.
Mantha $7.5M
AA $6.8M
Bertuzzi $5M but could be higher if he continues to play like he is now.

That leaves about $16.2 to sign.

RFAs
Erne
Hirose
DLR
Ehn
Bowey
Svechnikov
Kuffner
Kaski
Saarijarvi
Turgeon

UFAs
Biega
Green
Daley
Ericsson
Howard

Now I know not all of them are going to be resigned but an extra $4M could hurt. If needed they can always sign a free agent goalie for less than $4M.
I also think Detroit takes a run at Krug. If Boston doesn't resign him.

Yeah, I saw it, I just don't know that signing a vet is the right move. Your options in net for cheaper than Howard are likely Cam Talbot, Brian Elliot, Thomas Griess, and Mike Smith. And maybe those guys are fine for a year, they don't need to be good while you're rebuilding. But then you're doing the same thing next year. And the year after. You have no high end goalie prospects. So when you're coming out of your rebuild in two/three years, who do you have in net?

The benefit with Allen is that he's a guy who could regain form with a change of scenery and potentially be that longer term solution in net. It's not likely, but at worst he's only there for one year. It's a low risk gamble. And you're getting a legitimate, decently young roster forward who is third line caliber and could be second or first with a little more consistency (which he might get with consistent playing time in Detroit). And he's already signed for next year at a low cap hit. Having that depth gives you the ability to trade some of your millions of other (yes, potentially better) forwards for a good defenseman, instead of overpaying Torey Krug (who is on record as saying he'd consider taking a discount to stay in Boston).

Idk, I think if you can get two Stanley Cup champions, one with some upside and one that can fill a role you'll need now and potentially later, for your 35 year old goalie on an expiring deal, that's not bad from an asset management perspective.

I'm fine with none of the UFAs being resigned Green, Daley and Ericsson I think retire at the end and I'm 100% sure Ericsson does. I think it is the smart move for Green and Daley because the amount of games they have missed to injury in the last couple of seasons they are lucky they can still play at all. With Biega Yzerman traded Pope for him but Pope had little chance of making Detroit with the players Detroit had drafted recently. I have no idea if Yzerman will resign him or not. I'm hoping he only acquired him as a stop gap with Detroit having so many D on IR and not wanting to rush a prospect up. Since his cap hit is under $1M and in the final year of his contract it looks like he might not resign him.

Now for Howard this is my theory so I can't prove it. Howard has mentioned he doesn't want to leave Detroit its his family home and he said he doesn't want to spend much time away from them. Osgood mentioned after the TDL that Holland was willing to drop his asking price for Howard to send him to a contender and Howard was the one who said no.
I know Howard would like to play a couple of more seasons and since he does want to leave Detroit I can see Howard signing another 1yr deal for $2.5M to $3m to keep playing. Now I know there are other Wings fans that feel the same way and older players do sign for less to keep playing. Now the last time I voiced this opinion a few people on this site said oh that will never happen.

The big reason Detroit is in the situation they are in because Holland overpaid several role players and handed NTC's like Pez. Most teams rebuilding have bunch of cap space but the 2 seasons before this season they needed LTIR just to get under the cap and that's pretty much absurd for a team out of the playoff race by the end of November. The Wings signed Larsson in the off season and he is playing well in the AHL in his first season of pro hockey and I think he sees some time in the NHL this season. I think the earliest he is ready maybe at the end of next season. So having a goalie who has been with the team his entire career willing to sign a 1yr deal at a discount to stay in Detroit would fill a the gap nicely. Howard very realistically could be traded and if it does happen I think at the end of the season he is retires and won't sign with Detroit to help out.

Honestly both Allen and Howard will be retired by the time Detroit is a contender and the Wings aren't going to be a contender and most likely won't make the playoffs with
Howard. But keeping Howard on at a discounted rate could give them the time they need for a prospect develop or to find another option. Detroit has 2 more vets over 30 that will be off the books at the end of next season.

Krug is a local kid and he is a top pair dman maybe even a #1 dman. Which Detroit doesn't have, even with promising young defenseman like Hronek and Cholowski. Most
people see Hronek as a second pair dman and Cholowski as a top pair dman but not a #1. Maybe Seider becomes a #1, but who knows.

ok but 1) the Blues have Vile Husso and can simply trade Allen to someone goaltending needy for future value whether that is at the deadline or in the offseason if Husso continues to look good
and
2) Kostin is nowhere near ready and also while good,nowhere near as good as people are hyping him up to be. If he was that good and ready he'd be up starting over Blais or Sanford even before the Tarasenko injury. Why do people think Tarasenko's injury effects that? why would <20pt/year players be blocking him in some way that a Tarasenko injury unlocks or what vast improvement has he made in 9 ~.5 pt/game AHL games? Do people think he's playing out of his mind in a way that doesn't show up on the stat sheet in the AHL (a thing that happens but hasn't been reported by basically anyone for Kostin at this point, plus that's a big gap to make up in "not showing up in the stats sheet" for an offense first forward)? Do people think because he looked good in the first few preseason games (something he didn't even carry all the way through the preseason) that makes him ready, scouting reports and larger bodies of data including his current 9 game AHL production be damned? Do people not remember how good Kyrou looked through the ENTIRE preseason last year and how awful he looked at the beginning of last year, and as soon as he is healthy he is a better and more NHL ready prospect than Kostin, he's just rehabbing an injury at the moment ebcause the Blues are patient with prospects. Where did this narrative of Tarasenko injury "opens the door for Kostin" come from and why is ti so popular?

The fact of the matter is the Blues either need to win without Tarasenko or realize that they were likely looking at another scoring winger rental at the deadline before Tarasenko's injury and now they need it more and pony up for a trade (obviously not to replace all of his production but to get NHL level talent to close the gap). There is no reason to burn assets on goalies if Husso stays healthy and productive and there is no reason to use Tarasenko's injury as a reason to panic and take Kostin off his development curve. Kostin is too talented and this team is too good to sink this team or Kostin's development curve on rushing the Blues second best forward prospect. If they wanna call someone up Walker is a non-prospect who is hot and can fill a roster spot

The reason we are trading Allen now is because I believe that having Jimmy Howard as a backup is better than having Jake Allen as a backup to end this season. Howard instead of Allen makes our team better. I'm not trying to dump on Jake Allen here, but as much as we like to believe he was good as a backup when Binnington took over, the numbers say otherwise. He's also been rough to start this year. He needs a change of scenery, and if he has a bad year the whole season, we're going to be paying more than Zach Sanford to get rid of him in the offseason (heck, we still might need to pay more), and because we stupidly made a Justin Faulk trade, we're running out of assets to trade away for stuff like that. A goaltender for goaltender trade, where the cap hits are about even, is the least worst option for the Blues in ridding themselves of Allen's last year, which is absolutely necessary for our cap situation, but if we want Husso up next year, which I agree with you that we should, we can't do a goaltender for goaltender trade in the offseason, because that takes away Husso's spot. It has to be at the deadline, so that Howard is gone in the summer.

I mean, I don't know what you're looking at, I have Kostin on the third line, Blais and Thomas are getting the opportunity to grab Tarasenko's spot first. It's not like I'm saying Kostin is my replacement for Tarasenko. But at this point in time, he is the obviously the next man up to fill in if we trade Sanford away since Fabbri has given us nothing. As I said in the description, which it seems like you didn't read, I'd love to give Kyrou a shot there first. If Kyrou was healthy, he would 100% be there instead of Kostin. Kyrou is the dynamic speedy player that this team really needs. But guess what- he's not healthy! He has a knee injury! His season is a complete unknown. He could be fine in two months, he could be terrible the whole season. So yes, let's not rush him either, especially not him, because his ceiling is higher. Tarasenko's shoulder injury didn't last season didn't really heal until December and that's way less vital than your legs for hockey. And let's not forget that yeah Kyrou was great through the whole preseason, sucked at the start of his NHL career, and then was great in the AHL again. Sometimes giving these guys a taste is exactly what is needed to keep them on that development curve when they inevitably get sent back down. I think Kostin deserves a few games at some point this year for that potential benefit alone. A few games won't hurt his development curve.

Lol Nathan Walker, yeah he's been fine in the AHL but look at that guy's NHL stats and then come back and tell me you want him up here. No thanks.

And the fact of the matter is that deadline rentals are really ****ing stupid. They've always been stupid. They cost a ton and they rarely work, because it takes more than two months for guys to get acclimated to a new team. There are exceptions- Charlie Coyle did great his few months in Boston. But he was still under contract for this year. Mark Stone did great his first few months in Vegas. But he came with an extension. How'd it go for Columbus last year? The Sharks? The Jets? The Leafs even traded for Muzzin early and they couldn't get out of the first round. Those guys gave up tons of picks and prospects and they've got nothing to show for it (even though Columbus' sweep was sick). I wouldn't even be doing the Allen-for-Howard trade if we didn't need to lose that last year of Allen for the cap, because Doug Armstrong's worst trade was a deadline deal for a goaltender that, ding ding ding! didn't work. And it comes down to- what are you willing to trade? Do we have any prospects that are showing us they have a chance in the NHL someday besides Kyrou and Kostin? No, so no one wants any of our other prospects so they'll want our picks. But hey, if we don't have any prospects, we need our first round and second round picks in a deep draft this year to restock the cupboards and keep this team competitive for awhile, rather than blow it on some rental that probably won't work anyway.

I mean, have a little faith in these guys. If it looks like it's going way south in January, talk to me then. But right now, the lineup above gives us the best chance to be competitive without trading away all our valuable assets, and even takes care of some stuff that helps us this offseason.

Sorry for writing a book, I just feel like that's all relevant information.

No your long response is fine. I'm sorry for my long response I'm just finding the Kostin hype train in general is just way over the top. It wasn't directed at you which is confusing because it's about your post so that's my bad. I agree on Kyrou being more valuable and having a higher ceiling so I don't want to rush him either but like I said that's also why I don;t want to rush Kostin. I also don't think Walker will be very good in the NHL hence why I am good with rentals , but Walker is the logical call up and will just be depth

I think the biggest disconnect is on Allen. I am someone who last year was telling people to stop assuming Allen was ever good and not a product of his defenses the same way I'm on this personal march to slow the Kostin hype train so trust me I'm not upset at losing Allen, but he's not a negative trade asset. He's worth getting something back in picks or prospects and the Blues only kept him because the offseason backup signings available they assumed would be too expensive or long term to leave themselves with no backup and husso had just had an awful season in the AHL when healthy and was coming off an injury, plus Binny always had that "what if he was just a flash in the pan: thing. Now that Binnington is showing he's the real deal and Husso is healthy and good in the AHL then assuming Husso (and Binnington) stays healthy and productive Allen can be traded.

That means Allen would be replenishing the prospect/pick pool not hemorrhaging it further, if you trade him away for assets rather than for Howard. it's just a matter of if you wait until the offseason or do it before the deadline (probably the offseason but again Husso/Binny performance & health + what is offered for Allen will determine all of that)

As far as rentals in general, the Miller trade was dumb from a process point of view because if Halak was a product of the defense then the Blues defense was good enough to make an average goalie look historically good then what is even the marginal gain of a better goaltender? There is a smaller unsaved shot % variable for a goalie to fix, or if Halak wasn't a system guy like was assumed then you are paying assets to dump a better goaltender for a worse one (which turned out to be true) . There was no scenario where that move was smart(I was screaming this fro the mountain tops at the time but nobody cared and Army had his ear to the narrative apparently because he's a good GM, especially with trades, but that and the Oshie one were bad and were both the predominant narrative at the time, much like again this "Call up Kostin to replace Tarasenko" stuff). It was not a bad deal because rentals are some nebulous bad.

Manifest NHL talent is better than prospects as prospect have a large fail rate and a larger rate of success that still falls short of the hype enough that you are better with the NHL talent. It always has to be weighed because even that success that falls short of hype adds up and sometimes they do hit which is the only way to accumulate enough talent under the cap, but it's generally true that NHL talent is better. Cup windows don't just happen every year. If you have a cup window, you can't just will a playoff win with GMing, many teams that make a run make rentals and most teams even in the playoffs don't win a cup or make the finals, hell half are out in the first round, so that's not a good measure. You mentioned Muzzin and Coyle of course and only one of those tow acquisitions would be making it out of the first round so it was pick the losers and go "they didn't even make it out of the first" which is pretty analysis stunting logic.

It also is looking at a playoffs where the champs were an odd worst to first story, a top 3 team all time was swept out of the first, and every division winner lost in the first round. Go back on year. The Jets grab Stastny to wind up in the conference finals, to be beat by a team who paid 3 draft picks for Tatar, who was beat in the finals by a team who made a smaller rental but still bought Kemper. Or the year before where the team that traded for Fiddler was beat by the one who acquired Hainsey. I'm not saying the Blues have to get Hall (would be fun even if Tarasenko was healthy because there was still a top 6 wing spot up for grabs but it would cost too much) but a 40+ point/year guy on a rental for like a second or hell acquire picks for Allen and flip them for a rental wouldn't be a bad idea. The team just needs to weigh how much going for it this year without Tarasenko (out for basically the season and very much a maybe for the playoffs) is worth it and I bet they kick that can for a month or two to find out who this team is and see how health otherwise goes. End of the day, they aren't flipping a goalie, those Howard rumors last year were when it was obvious Allen was the problem but not obvious that Binnington was the answer yet