Dumba is having an awful season right now, so he wouldn’t be worth all that and Minnesota would be fools to sell low on a fair deal for his current play. That being said, Dumba and Stalock don’t fix the Leafs issues if Holl is the only RHD interested in playing defense.

not enough quality in this trade for Dumba. It would cost at least Nylander

You haven’t seen Dumba this year. He’s a complete mess. When Spurgeon comes back, he’ll be a $6m third pairing guy until he works his way out of the slump he’s in.

Thats not how the real world works. A players value doesn't fluctuate near as much as fans think it does. According to people on this site, if 10 people say a player is really good, he will now be worth a pile of assets, if 10 players say he's bad, he's worth pretty much nothing. And those 10 people will change their opinion every 10 games or so.

Dumba isn't worth as much as people think but his recent struggles don't lower his value much. What matters is the medium of his work. In the case of Dumba, he's a high value player but he's not an upper echelon player. He's more of a tweener type guy. He's got a tonne of potential and at times looks like he could be a legit #1 defenceman but hasn't shown the consistency to be that yet. To me he looks more like a second pair offensive guy who can really dominate at times but needs support to really shine. What that is worth is unclear. Likely a package of similar high potential but inconsistent pieces that could develop into part of the future core in Minnesota.

I don't think Dumba is good enough for Nylander. Nylander this season has shown he's turning the corner. The long stretches of apathy that plagued him in the past seem to be disappearing and he's been one of the more consistent leafs this year. Dumba is 3 years older and still hasn't shown he can be consistent. I think that lowers his value. At a certain age, if the potential just doesn't all come together it probably won't. Much like how good Jake Gardiner looked when he was in his earlier 20's and by the time he was 26 he was a guy that looked so good offensively but just couldn't fix his defensive miscues. Dumba's getting to the point where he just doesn't look like he's going to be a clear cut #1. In TO I am not even sure where he'd lineup? Might even be 3rd pair right now, since Holl has been so good and Barrie and Rielly really look like they can be something scary.

His recent struggles do limit his value because it limits the number of teams interested and doesn’t give Guerin as much leverage to find the best deal. A team looking to make the playoffs and with limited cap space isn’t paying top value for a $6m cap hit guy who isn’t great in his own zone and hasn’t scored a point in a month. That’s something Paul Fenton would do and sadly for Guerin, he isn’t a GM currently. A team rebuilding and willing to be patient would be the teams most interested and patient teams don’t overpay for players.

Trading top dmen for top forwards is so difficult to measure.
I havent seen Dumba play much this year and it sounds like he's been garbage. I have watched him since Junior and I know what type of player he can be. I would value him over package being offered here, just because you'll spend the next 3-5 years trying to replace him.

Any GM that isn't a complete idiot, isn't going to let a recent cold spell skew their opinion of a player. Just like Eichel's current point streak doesn't make him the best player in the world and worth more than McDavid. You have to look at the overall body of work to determine value. This is the same as what happened with Nylander last year. Just because he struggled for a bit, doesn't mean he's now worthless, it means he is exactly what he is, a high potential player who has a tonne of potential still to reach.

In the case of Dumba, he has 377 games under his belt, he's been often really good and sometimes terrific and sometimes inconsistent. Using a small sample size within that is just dumb and no one with any sound reasoning will understand that a cold streak doesn't really make a difference. If McDavid goes 10 games were he scores a goal and an assist, that isn't going to lower his value at all. Same with Matthews, if he has an awful year and scores 35 goals only, that isn't going to lower his value.