Hard pass from CHI.

Saad is currently injured and was scoring at a similar pace to Sam Gagner. Not worth a decent prospect and two 2nds.

Saad's not known for being a producer, hes a 2-way power forward, horrible comparison.

I've had a look at his defensive metrics too, and they aren't particularly pretty. No thanks.

http://naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20182019&thruseason=20192020&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=std&rate=y&v=p&playerid=8476438

Manning is a no. The Blackhawks sent him to the Oilers last season. Even with Seabrook & De Haan gone for the season, if the Hawks need depth on defence, I hope then they acquire a player who can be productive beyond this season. I don’t want them to waste a draft pick as a stop gap measure. Manning is 6th or 7th at best.

Honestly, I would think Chicago would take a deal like this if Saad is tradeable (which I suspect could happen this summer ... 1 year left on his contract), two 2nd’s, and and 1st round pick (Yamamoto). The key to this trade is Yamamoto in my opinion. Can he play at the NHL?
If Saad is move, then I would be surprised if Bowman tries to hold out for a 1st.

Saad is not a goal scorer. He is an excellent 200 feet forward. Will play on the penalty kill and power play,, so to equate him as Gagne is a mistake. The drawback to acquiring him is what he will cost a team once his current contract is over.

He is on a bad club defensively. I don’t think any Hawk this year will have good metrics. Chicago gives up far too many shots per game.

Even in that context Saad's numbers aren't good. He's certainly part of the problem rather than a victim of circumstances here. And his defensive numbers have been bad for 3 years now, so this isn't something new.

Couple things...
1. Saad is very much so worth a decent prospect & a second round pick + a roster player (for contract #'s and possible cap constrictions) however as Saad cannot sign an extension until after July 1 of 2020 then the second pick is an overpayment. Using the Mark Stone deal as a template a fair deal is one of similar construction. Based on Chicago's needs EDM could offer Samorukov or Jones + 2nd round pick & a roster player such as Chaisson. Saad < Stone and therefore CHI should not expect to receive the teams top ranked prospect (Brannstrom).

2. "scoring at a similar pace to Sam Gagner" This is blatantly misleading:
Saad 2019/2020 pts/gm= 0.52, 16 min/gm, 52% off-zone start % & strong metrics in all zones (CF% & CA%). One further note is the quality of competition Saad faces is consistently top level players as shown in the player usage chart.
Gagner 2019/2020 pts/gm=0.40, 12 min/gm + 63% off-zone start % against lesser quality players as shown in the player usage chart.

The trade is absolutely an overpayment, but comparing Gagner to Saad as if they are similar players is apples and oranges. One is being sheltered with over 60% of his zone starts coming in the offensive zone against the opposing teams worst players whereas the other is nearly neutral in zone start percentage and does so against the opposing teams toughest competition. Further to my point the player who spends more time starting in his own zone and against higher quality players is also scoring at a higher rate than the sheltered player, while also contributing to the PK something Gagner does not do. Lastly Saad is a more physical player and fits an area of need for EDM (Quality FWD talent) that is not a pure rental (Hall).

https://public.tableau.com/shared/CT7GK62D7?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_playerusage.php?team=EDM
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_playerusage.php?team=CHI

Worst take EVER! Comparing Saad to Stone.... !



First, your numbers here are off. There's no such thing as CA%, and Saad's CF% isn't particularly strong. All of Saad's defensive numbers have been poor for the past 2.5 years: CA/60, SA/60, HDCA/60, etc. Here:

P/60, 2019-20:
Saad: 1.97
Gagner: 1.72

CF% (CF/60 – CA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 52.07% (64.38 – 59.27)
Gagner: 54.23 (61.58 – 51.97)

SF% (SF/60 – SA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 50.18% (35.93 – 35.67)
Gagner: 57.03% (35.96 – 27.10)

GF% (GF/60 – GA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 45.24% (2.49 – 3.02)
Gagner: 39.13% (2.22 – 3.45)

xGF% (xGF/60 – xGA-60), 2019-20:
Saad: 52.28% (2.86 – 2.61)
Gagner: 59.88% (2.85 – 1.91)

HDCF% (HDCF/60 – HDCA/60), 2019-20
Saad: 52.50% (13.77 – 12.46)
Gagner: 58.62% (12.56 – 8.87)

PDO (Sh% – Sv%)
Saad: 0.985 (6.93 – 91.54)
Gagner: 0.934 (6.16 – 87.27)

Secondly, zone starts don't matter nearly as much as you seem to think:

"... we see that very few players require significant adjustments to their numbers due to their zone starts. While it’s true that more accurate numbers are always better, it’s certainly becoming clearer that outside of a handful of players the effect of zone starts on possession aren’t as great as we may have thought, and may actually be negligible for a large portion of the league."

https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/15/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-i-maybe-not-as-much-as-we-thought/
https://puckplusplus.com/2015/01/20/how-much-do-zone-starts-matter-part-ii-a-lot-on-their-own-not-that-much-in-aggregate/