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Forums/Armchair-GM

making roster changes based on advanced stats only

Created by: bunzy1034
Team: 2019-20 Winnipeg Jets
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 24, 2020
Published: Mar. 24, 2020
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Byan Little would be the teams number one center, however I am not going to count him as he hardly has played this year,

top 10 jets players this year according to advanced stats:
1.Bryan Little (injured)
2. Dylan DeMelo
3. Nik Ehlers
4.Andrew Copp
5.Jack Roslovic
6.Blake Wheeler
7.Neal Pionk
8.Carl Dahlstrom
9.Dmitry Kulikov
10.Mathieu Perrault

I want to know how much you believe advanced analytics tell who is and is not a good player.
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2020
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2021
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2022
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ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
28$81,500,000$74,562,857$0$380,000$6,937,143
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$894,166$894,166 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$2,280,000$2,280,000
C, LW, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,000,000$6,000,000
RW, LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,125,000$4,125,000
LW, RW, C
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,850,000$3,850,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$8,250,000$8,250,000
RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$741,667$741,667
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,125,000$6,125,000
C
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$767,500$767,500 (Performance Bonus$107,500$108K)
LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$7,142,857$7,142,857
LW
UFA - 7
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$2,916,667$2,916,667
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,995,000$4,995,000
C, RW, LW
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$850,000$850,000
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$900,000$900,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$6,166,667$6,166,667
G
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$4,333,333$4,333,333
LD/RD
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,225,000$1,225,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$3,150,000$3,150,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000
RD
UFA - 2
ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$5,291,667$5,291,667
C, RW
NMC
UFA - 5
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$775,000$775,000 (Performance Bonus$60,000$60K)
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$7,600,000$7,600,000
RD
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$1,000,000$1,000,000
LD/RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Winnipeg Jets
$700,000$700,000
LD
UFA - 1

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Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:00 p.m.
#26
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Quoting: Jack_
The reason you have they best players so low in the lineup is because of their time on ice. I guess you are rating their stats just off corsi most of their forwards are fantastic and their defense is absolutely horrible. The reason they are on for so many shots against is because they arent able to exit the defensive zone leading to more time in the defensive zone meaning more shots against. Sure the forwards are to blame a little bit but it's mostly because they have below average defenseman and those defenseman are playing way over their heads. If they had better defenseman to play with their individual and team corsi would go up.

Now if we go back to what I was saying about TOI we see that their top forwards are playing against other teams top forwards and they are still on the ice with their ****ty defenseman. They will have a worse corsi because they are playing the tougher minutes whereas the bottom 6 guys are playing less minutes and those minutes are against opposing bottom 6s most of the time. If the bottom 6 guys were to play more minutes they would be on for more shots against results in a lower corsi%


No I agree. Like scheifele is still the jets best player. DeMelo and Ehlers are very good as well as they were playing alot and are the best players for advanced numbers in there repective positions on the team. Laine and Connor while having insane shooting talent are a overatted. Guys like Josh have been carrying the defence all year and his numbers have suffered because of it. Next year I expect that the advanced numbers are going to look better for this team.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:01 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Thank you. This is the logic I've been waiting for.

It's very difficult to construct a team entirely off offensive AND defensive responsible players. The jets aren't going to bench, trade, give up on or scratch Laine only because his defensive game sucks if he can score as well.
Classic example is Dzingel. A guy who can be great in the offensive zone, but otherwise is useless. This year he couldn't score, therefore he has been scratched a number of times.
This is the context that advanced stats need. They give an indicator of who is good where, and allow that player to be put in positions where they have the best impact.


I agree with you
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:01 p.m.
#28
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Okay now, if Perreault is one of the Jets best forwards in advanced stats, why is he traded or bought out so frequently on Jets AGMs on this website - by Jets fans too. Obviously he is overpaid, but if he is that important, shouldn't that overrule the cap?
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:03 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Okay now, if Perreault is one of the Jets best forwards in advanced stats, why is he traded or bought out so frequently on Jets AGMs on this website - by Jets fans too. Obviously he is overpaid, but if he is that important, shouldn't that overrule the cap?


He is decent on the forcheck besides that yeah overpaid and he has Very favorable match ups. He is an average third liner at best. This was also trying to prove how sometimes advanced numbers can be faulted, this is one of them
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Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:05 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Some guys exist on the roster for the lone purpose of providing points. Everyone has their own role on the team. Copp does his best work on the third line - that's his role, and that's where he is best. Just because advanced stats label him as one of the best Jets does not mean he should magically be running the top line.


Ok, that doesn't make him a worse player tho, just not suited for that role (ie if you want offense and nothing else, put Scheif out there, if you want to control play in all three zones, not give up a ton of chances against, put Copp out there, who is the better overall player... Just bc a guy is better offensively doesn't make him the better player, plus if you give Copp better scoring linemates, and more TOI/PP time he might actually get more points)... That was a bad explanation... The better player isn't always the "1C" (best offensive center) was the point I was trying to make, also you still haven't given me a single piece of context that makes analytics less valuable for player evaluation
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:11 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: AFOX10900
Ok, that doesn't make him a worse player tho, just not suited for that role (ie if you want offense and nothing else, put Scheif out there, if you want to control play in all three zones, not give up a ton of chances against, put Copp out there, who is the better overall player... Just bc a guy is better offensively doesn't make him the better player, plus if you give Copp better scoring linemates, and more TOI/PP time he might actually get more points)... That was a bad explanation... The better player isn't always the "1C" (best offensive center) was the point I was trying to make, also you still haven't given me a single piece of context that makes analytics less valuable for player evaluation


You didn't read what I defined as context for this thread.

This roster and it's lines throw players together by their advanced stats only.

Applying context, such as the "eye test"that @Ajp_18 spoke of, or merging it with the more typical stats allows us to slot them into their appropriate role on the roster.
Advanced stats aren't a determining factor to who is the better player, it' tells you who is best where. I guarantee you if Copp was placed in a top line role, his advanced stats would plummet. Copp is better on 3C than Schiefele, and vice versa for 1C.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:16 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: Wqrrior
You didn't read what I defined as context for this thread.

This roster and it's lines throw players together by their advanced stats only.

Applying context, such as the "eye test"that @Ajp_18 spoke of, or merging it with the more typical stats allows us to slot them into their appropriate role on the roster.
Advanced stats aren't a determining factor to who is the better player, it' tells you who is best where. I guarantee you if Copp was placed in a top line role, his advanced stats would plummet. Copp is better on 3C than Schiefele, and vice versa for 1C.


They won't. If anything, playing with guys who can outscore their xG by that much, they, along with his "normal stats" will skyrocket
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:18 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: AFOX10900
They won't. If anything, playing with guys who can outscore their xG by that much, they, along with his "normal stats" will skyrocket


Well, then congratulations you have yourself the coyotes. Nobody will score on you, and you yourselves won't score. Copp is not offensively talented enough to offensively exceed other players top lines. If he was, he would be on the top line by now. Even when Little went down he wasn't moved up to 2C. He thrives on 3C, and that's where he will remain, no matter now many advanced stats are thrown at me or anyone else.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:21 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: Wqrrior
Well, then congratulations you have yourself the coyotes. Nobody will score on you, and you yourselves won't score. Copp is not offensively talented enough to offensively exceed other players top lines.


1 player != An entire team that can't score... Points wise or analytics wise, the only good offensive players are Hall and Chychrun... (Plus the point of my comments were saying Copp is the best overall center on the Jets... Not the most offensive...)
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:25 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: AFOX10900
1 player != An entire team that can't score... Points wise or analytics wise, the only good offensive players are Hall and Chychrun... (Plus the point of my comments were saying Copp is the best overall center on the Jets... Not the most offensive...)


The correct term is most balanced. Not best overall. I see what you are saying though and will leave it there. Hopefully you see my reasoning in applying advanced stats reasonably, and not using them as the only determining factor in anything.
Mar. 24, 2020 at 5:32 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: Wqrrior
The correct term is most balanced. Not best overall. I see what you are saying though and will leave it there. Hopefully you see my reasoning in applying advanced stats reasonably, and not using them as the only determining factor in anything.


No, he is the best lol, you can't just use points to determine who is the best... Copp also isn't the best example of this bc he isn't THAT much better than Scheif, it's a minor difference, and Scheif's offensive totals make it justifiable to play him on the first line... But as an overall player, Copp is better, just the stereotypical roles of players suggests that Scheif should play first line, Copp second, but if you take a guy like, say Val Nuke in COL, there is no argument to be made that he should be playing at least second line mins
 
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