which is why I gave out all 4 years. If I averaged the 4 WAR it would have been a false imagery, now if I took the past 3 years it's probably going to more around the average ballpark.

indeed, but isn't Wins Above Replacement based on the eye??? Ever think about what has been put into the stats. You can't make stats without creating them and seeing them.

QoC matters a lot (and can be controlled fairly well by coaches) for defensemen, as you can see by the numbers for Matt Benning. According to WAR, Benning is a world-class defender; in reality, he's just a very good 3rd pairing guy.

Not world-class World Class would meet Pietrangelo’s 3.2 WAR and Victor Hedman’s 3.2

In reality he's an ok top 4 guy, and do you have any facts or anything, or are you just going off preconceived notations... And there have been so many "studies" done that prove QoC is largely inconsequential... https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/why-quality-of-competition-doesn-t-matter-to-analytics-experts-anymore-1.23414544
That's the best one ik of, done by some pretty large names in the analytics community...

Literally every single NHL coach disagrees with that sentiment. They all work very hard to achieve optimal defensive matchups and isolate their 3rd pairing from elite competition as much as possible. Why? If QoC didn't matter or all came out in the wash then why not just roll your lines and pairings? Why does Chara face elite comp more than twice as much as Grzelcyk? Why does Slavin face elite comp more than twice as much as Fleury? Are Cassidy and Brind'Amour idiots? Of course not.


Now look at his more recent articles crowing about how Quinn Hughes is facing elite comp much of the time. Why write an article about it if it doesn't matter?

I'm sure you'll agree that he isn't worth nearly $8M though...

A. No, ik Sully always throws buzzsaw (ZAR-Blueger-Tanev) out vs top lines if he gets the chance, and last year Trotz started Matt f*ucking Martin's line I believe, vs Crosby, and you're totally not understanding what I said, of course Dougie and Slavin are gonna have more toi vs elite comp, but they're also gonna have way more toi vs 4th liners, that's what happens when you play 2x as much, and the coaches don't roll the lines bc their top line is better, not nessicarily bc they're looking for matchups, and even if they were, the vast majority of shifts start on the for, so the coach can't even control that

I did look at his 3 most recent articles (at least ones he tweeted out) the one on Hughes never mentioned QoC, he explained their QoT for a few paragraphs, never mentioned QoC... And if he didn't mention it and I didn't to catch it, it must have been a very brief statement that I somehow skipped, he definitely wasn't "crowing it" There was one in the worst Canuck skaters of all time, obv I don't think that one had QoC, and one on Josh Leivo that spent the whole time explaining how he wins puck battles

I'm talking specifically about defensemen, not forwards. Yes, coaches do match as much as possible, and for the most part it is possible. Hence:

Grzelcyk faces bottom-6 forwards 41.2% of the time (6:08 per game at 5v5) while Chara faces the lowest comp just 23.8% of the time (4:04).
Grzelcyk faces ELITE forwards 20.3% of the time (3:01 per game at 5v5) while Chara faces the best comp 46.4% of the time (7:56).

Fleury faces bottom-6 forwards 44.2% of the time (5:36 per game at 5v5) while Slavin faces the lowest comp just 26.8% of the time (4:51).
Fleury faces ELITE forwards 21.5% of the time (2:43 per game at 5v5) while Slavin faces the best comp 39.4% of the time (7:08).

You're ignoring the facts here. Coaches work very hard to protect their 3rd pairings from elite comp and that's a fact.



It's right in the title: https://www.vancourier.com/pass-it-to-bulis/quinn-hughes-is-playing-big-minutes-against-tough-competition-for-the-canucks-1.23975140

"What’s more impressive is who Hughes was matched up against: Connor McDavid. More than half of Hughes’ even-strength minutes came against the two-time Art Ross winner and no Canucks defenceman spent more time on the ice against McDavid at even-strength than Hughes. That doesn’t happen by accident."

"Against the Calgary Flames, Hughes once again racked up minutes: his 17:45 at even-strength was second only to Tyler Myers. A big chunk of those minutes came against one of the best forwards in the NHL: Johnny Gaudreau. No one played more against Gaudreau at even-strength than Hughes in that game."

A. That "elite comp" is likely just how much he goes against plates with the most ice time on their team (that's what every metric of too vs elite and similar things that I've found uses) which we all know doesn't make players good, there's tons of examples where teams spread out talent, or are just bad at evaluating their own players and play the worse players more... ANA ARZ BUF (without Eichel) LAK MIN (OTT) PIT and probably some more who I'm not sure on the line combos, all have second or third lines that are just as good if not better than the first line, which is the only line that counts on stats like TOI vs Elite comp...

And yes on a 1-2 game sample yeah QoC does matter, but you also didn't mention mention the game where he didn't face that comp from the article, and the, I'm sure many more where their coach thought it would be a better matchup for their team by putting him against a different line, plus just bc you play against top competition (just ask Doughty) doesn't mean you're good... Especially if you consistently get burned, and even in that article it says he wasn't great at stopping McDrai, here said he gave up a goal to McD that wasn't necessarily his fault, but got burned by Drai afterwards... And yeah it said he didn't get burned much after that, but everyone learns from their mistakes, once you get burned once by a player to notice every time they're on the ice and won't be as aggressive offensively (if they care about defence) and other sides of their game start to lack bc they focused on stopping those two guys...

Now you're just making stuff up to justify your position. Its not a good look.

... LOL! as far as I'm aware you're using Bill Comeau's model, or a similar corsica model which all use TOI as the most important stat in judging how good a player is.... I don't even know how to respond... the skill gap isn't that big, so even that "elite comp" isn't a huge difference from some bottom 6's... take a team like OTT this yr, their top line that has Chris Tierney centering it is considered "elite comp" and TBL's third line that had Cirelli on it for points in the year is part of a bottom 6... That's not the best argument, but idk what else to say, I've cited a seasons worth of data that shows the change in QoC based off actual stats is far less than change in QoT, and a study done by some high level analytical guys, and all you've posted was some article that focused on one player's 3 game sample size... I'm done here you're clearly never going to care to actually look at the numbers and see that QoC in 99.99% of cases is largely extremely similar on a player to player basis over the whole season.

It’s based off too small of a sample size of 1 year.

Of course. But even if you look at the aggregate, he isn't worth $5.6M either. (That's the average of the 4 years.) In fact, I don't think anyone would argue he's even worth the lowest amount here: $4.07M

Strawman. I'm using the Puck IQ model.

http://puckiq.com

You are done. I've given several examples and posted the related stats, yet you keep on with you unsubstantiated opinion on the subject. I even had the OP post Matt Benning's numbers as proof that you need to take QoC into account when talking about defensemen, if you really believe Benning is the Oilers' best defender then I've got a prime piece of oceanfront property in Arizona for you.

That’s also based on the players he plays. I’m assuming that because He probably plays lower quality players his WAR takes a step up, but Benning is a pretty good player tho.

Yes, which is my whole point. QoC matters!

Yes but it doesn’t take into account QoT.

Which is why it’s a little faulty and I’m working on a new formula to deal with GAR WAR and Corsi

What doesn't take QoT into account?

I'm under the impression QoT means more for forwards and QoC has more impact on defensemen. Can't remember where I read that though.

The formula I’m using doesn’t really take QoT into account.