Balanced D pairs in a flat cap

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Created by: Driedger18

Team: 2020-21 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 27, 2020

Published: Apr. 28, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

This team is tight to the cap so let's get that out of the way. we all know the Leafs need to make cuts and I think this team takes the least amount of cuts to make a balanced and full roster.

Johnsson for Benning
-Johnsson to me seems like the most likely candidate to get moved as the Leafs have many players that can play the LW, Kapanen has elite speed that is a weapon all on its own and Kerfoot has more value to the Leafs then he would in a trade even if he may not have had the season we might have been expecting.
-it's selling low on him but I think he can still return something of value and a bottom pair RFA d man whos underlying shots against metrics are very good is a solid return I think.
-Benning may not provide much offensively but his ability to suppress shots and chances based on what you can see from Evolving-Hockey.com is very good. Of the 195 d men who played at least 500 5v5 minutes this season, he ranked top 20 in Relative to teammates(RelTM) GA/60(7th), RelTM SA/60(6th), RelTM FA/60(13th), and RelTM CA/60(13th).

Dermott for Jaros and a 2nd
-Big fan of Dermott but with Muzzin, Rielly, and Sandin all on the team he doesn't really have a place to play and they seem like they really want balanced pairs
-Netting a 2nd for Dermott in a draft like this is the big win. could draft another Robertson or someone else that might slip further than they should
-Jaros is another d man who has some alright underlying numbers. Not as good as Benning but still alright and worth taking a gamble on as an extra d who won't cost much which is key to this team. Last season Jaros ranked in the top 30 of d men who played at least 800 minutes at 5v5 in RelTM SA/60(4th), RelTM FA/60(10th), RelTM CA/60(27th), and RelTM xGA/60(15th).

Demelo Signing
-Demelo has very good underlying numbers in shot suppression and is able to play all over the d core to play with any style of d partner it seems. Of the 195 d men who played at least 500 5v5 minutes this season, he ranked top 30 in RelTM SA/60(8th), RelTM FA/60(10th), RelTM CA/60(6th), and RelTM xGA/60(30th).
-He's projected by Evolving-Hockey to make just under $3M per year for a 3-year deal and slightly over $3M on a 4-year deal. So I split the difference and went $3Mx3

Quick Notes:
Spezza: wants to be back and willing for the league minimum
Mikheyev: sounds like he wants to be back and shouldn't break the bank on a one year deal after his shortened season due to injury

If you made it all the way through thanks for hanging in there and let me know what you think and we can chat about it. Alsways oepn to discusion

Free Agent Signings

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Jaros, Christian	2	$700,000
Benning, Matthew	2	$1,000,000
Mikheyev, Ilya	1	$1,500,000
Kivihalme, Teemu	1	$700,000
Brooks, Adam	1	$700,000
Bracco, Jeremy	1	$700,000
Malgin, Denis	1	$700,000
Gauthier, Frédérik	1	$700,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Spezza, Jason		1	$700,000
DeMelo, Dylan		3	$3,000,000

Trades

TOR

Benning, Matthew [RFA Rights]

EDM

Johnsson, Andreas

TOR

Jaros, Christian [RFA Rights]
2020 2nd round pick (CBJ)

OTT

Dermott, Travis [RFA Rights]

Buyouts

Mikhail Grabovski: $0

Retained Salary Transactions

Phil Kessel: $1,200,000 (15%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$81,471,450	$0	$0	$28,550

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hyman, Zach $2,250,000$2,250,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 4	Nylander, William $6,962,366$6,962,366 RW UFA - 4
Robertson, Nicholas $821,667$821,667 LW, RW RFA - 4	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 5	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW UFA - 5
Mikheyev, Ilya $1,500,000$1,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 3	Kapanen, Kasperi $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 2
Engvall, Pierre $1,250,000$1,250,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $700,000$700,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Barabanov, Alexander $925,000$925,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Muzzin, Jake $5,625,000$5,625,000 LD NMC UFA - 4	Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Andersen, Frederik $5,000,000$5,000,000 G M-NTC UFA - 1
Rielly, Morgan $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	DeMelo, Dylan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD UFA - 4	Campbell, Jack $1,650,000$1,650,000 G UFA - 2
Sandin, Rasmus $894,167$894,167 LD UFA - 2	Benning, Matthew $1,000,000$1,000,000 RD UFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Rosén, Calle $750,000$750,000 LD UFA - 1
Jaros, Christian $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1

Apr. 28, 2020 at 10:18 a.m.

Torontoleafs15

Banned

Joined: Apr. 2020

Posts: 1,893

Likes: 737

Johnsson has more value then Benning.
Demelo will likely cost more
While I agree Robertson should be on the roster, giving him that much minutes will ruin his development

Apr. 28, 2020 at 10:20 a.m.

MMXD

Joined: Mar. 2020

Posts: 2,681

Likes: 696

I really like the way you’re thinking with that D core. Great work

Driedger18 and OldNYIfan liked this.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 10:24 a.m.

Trevorchef

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 2,449

Likes: 1,275

The Leafs could do better in an AJ trade IMO.

DeMelo likely gets paid about a million more IMO.

Robertson should spend another year outside the NHL IMO. Regardless of his amazing year and skillset, he is just too young. Better in the long run for him and the organization.

Justin Holl is NOT a top pairing RHD. Not even close.

Some good ideas here though. Thanks for posting.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 10:24 a.m.

Driedger18

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2016

Posts: 201

Likes: 37

Quoting: Torontoleafs15

Johnsson has more value then Benning.
Demelo will likely cost more
While I agree Robertson should be on the roster, giving him that much minutes will ruin his development

He totally does have more value but everyone will know we have to move someone so they won’t want to give us fair value if they know we are in a pinch. And I think Benning is undervalued as well so might not be as lopsided as it looks.

Based on the Evolving-hockey guys who are pretty smart this is about what they expect on a 3 year deal so I think it’s close enough to talk about being possible.

He’s a goal scorer, played lots in junior and need to play higher in a lineup to use his skills to the best of their ability. I think he has to play with a top C or he just won’t be effective right away. I’m ok moving him down to the third line if that’s better though

OldNYIfan liked this.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 10:31 a.m.

Driedger18

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2016

Posts: 201

Likes: 37

Quoting: Trevorchef

I think we could if Johnsson wasn’t hurt a lot and the cap was going up but those two things make it less likely that we get a real win from a trade I think.

Demelo could get more probably but again the cap won’t likely be going up so what we thought could happen might have to change. So he might have to take less and he gets 3 years on a contract which is nice as well for him.

I’m all for the long game development of prospects and not rushing them but I think he’s at least worth a shot with the leafs next year based on the fact that he had an amazing year and playing with more skilled players will help him to keep developing. Also we are going to need cheap players next year with the cap staying clay or worse going down so he could provide very very good value for what his contract is. Im not saying he stays all year but I think if he earns a spot out of camp you run with it.

Holl is not a top pair d man I agree but that’s just the shutdown d pair. Not saying he’s this great d man just that him and muzzin take the hard matches is all

Trevorchef and OldNYIfan liked this.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 11:14 a.m.

MMXD

Joined: Mar. 2020

Posts: 2,681

Likes: 696

Quoting: Trevorchef

Agreed on Robertson

Trevorchef liked this.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 11:55 a.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,776

Likes: 22,814

Gee if Benning is a top 6 Dman and only costs 1m, wouldn't the Oilers keep him?
More nonsense talk about whether a Dman is number 1, 2 or 3, No matter who the Leafs play at RHD, they all better be competent since they are going to play about 20 minutes a game.
Even Reilly can't be considered a # 1 so all coaches are afraid to have him on the PK.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 12:09 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,499

Likes: 25,389

I think that the team you've constructed is real good but falls afoul of some financial realities.

Benning and De Melo will each cost more because some teams in need of RD (Winnipeg and Anaheim, in particular) will pay De Melo the $4 million @Trevorchef foresees and Benning is already making $1.9 million, so why would he sign for so much less?

Plus, I think that for Dermott, the most you can hope for is a second or a player, not both.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 12:10 p.m.

Driedger18

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2016

Posts: 201

Likes: 37

Quoting: palhal

You understand saying top 6 d man just means he can play in the NHL and doesn’t mean he’s elite talent right? I’m not saying benning is going to be a top pair shutdown d man just that he can play and he’s undervalued. And I’m sure Edmonton would like to keep him but if we offer then Johnsson who’s had a down year they might go for it with the lack of LW talent they have, the depth of d the having coming up(Bouchard will be in the NHL next year). So sure they’d like to keep him but I’d like to keep Johnsson as well if I could.

Can you explain what you mean by they are all going to play 20 minutes? Im not sure I follow

Apr. 28, 2020 at 12:19 p.m.

#10

Driedger18

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2016

Posts: 201

Likes: 37

Quoting: OldNYIfan

I can see Demelo costing more but I really don’t think Benning will. Evolving-hockey projects his next deal to be either 1.036 on a one year deal and 1.351 on a two year deal. So I don’t think it’s that far to suggest 2x1.

Demelo I can see signing for more no doubt but like I said if the cap stays flat or goes down everyone has less money to work with. If we don’t get him then we can keep dermott or sign Trevor van riemsdyk who also has good underlying numbers.

I think you can get that package from Ottawa because they could use some d help, Jaros played only 13 games with the sens this year so they may not see him as a critical piece, Ottawa’s coach is the leafs former defensive coach so could be a relation there, and Jaros is less a prospect and more just a guy really, the pick is the main return. Just my thoughts

OldNYIfan liked this.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 12:41 p.m.

#11

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,499

Likes: 25,389

Quoting: Driedger18

No one can doubt that you've put some thought into this analysis, which makes it impossible for me to contend that I'm more likely to be right than you. Thanks for the rebuttal.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 12:43 p.m.

#12

Driedger18

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2016

Posts: 201

Likes: 37

Quoting: OldNYIfan

No one can doubt that you've put some thought into this analysis, which makes it impossible for me to contend that I'm more likely to be right than you. Thanks for the rebuttal.

Sorry, didn’t mean for my last message to come across as more confrontational. I do enjoy the discussion for sure so thanks for the comments and points made

OldNYIfan liked this.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 12:50 p.m.

#13

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,499

Likes: 25,389

Quoting: Driedger18

Sorry, didn’t mean for my last message to come across as more confrontational. I do enjoy the discussion for sure so thanks for the comments and points made

Oh, goodness, no apologies necessary, it didn't sound confrontational AT ALL, and I know confrontational. IF my comment sounded miffed, I'm the one who should apologize for poor writing.

Driedger18 liked this.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 1:49 p.m.

#14

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,776

Likes: 22,814

Quoting: Driedger18

The 20 minutes. It's just a comment on all the silly talk that the Leafs need so called # 1 RHD So this # 1 plays 23 minutes, another 20 and the "worse" 17minutes. I'm just saying that three competent guys that play 20 minutes each is maybe all the Leafs need. My theory is it might be lot more cap efficient to have 7m for three guys instead of mystical RHD star which would up the right cost 14m for the three RHD

Actually I don't mind the Benning trade. Looks like Johnsson has to go for cap reasons and if the Leafs can get a competent RHD in his place, as I Leaf fan I would take that. Just wondering if 1m is to low a salary.

Apr. 28, 2020 at 2:11 p.m.

#15

Driedger18

Thread Starter

Joined: Sep. 2016

Posts: 201

Likes: 37

Quoting: palhal

I see ok that makes sense. Yes, I also would love to add a top-end RD but those are rare and if you can't get those then why not just have a balanced right side that can all play. Would be cheaper and easiwr to acquire for sure i think.

Ya, I didn't want to just low ball the offer so I did some research and according to Evolving-hockey, they project his next deal to be either $1.036M x 1 or $1.351M x 2. I may have stretched it to get him at $1M x 2 but I don't see it being that far off. Maybe he needs a little more but they have no more space based on the team created.

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