Isles net out to save $2.6M in space. Not worth giving up Wilde IMO

If there was a CBO this off season you'd have to deal with the cap dropping, not staying flat. With only $41,000 left in space with a flat cap(after having moved out Johnsson's 3 mil already), you should probably look to be using that CBO for the Leafs rather than trading it away.

I think that's a poor way of looking at it since you save 2.6 and gain a useable forward. But it doesn't have to be Wilde, it just needs to be rather significant. Johnsson is worth likely around a late 2nd by himself and in this scenario his value increases since you also get to use your CBO on Ladd so it's sort of like 8.1 million off the cap and you get a fast middle 6 winger on a good contract.

I doubt there will be a CBO but if there is, the Leafs don't have any bad contracts, they can move any one on their roster without difficulty in finding a buyer. A lot of teams could use speed and the Leafs have a tonne of it. If a CBO comes, the Leafs would be better off using their financial might to help a team that has more than one CBO candidate. The Islanders have 3 or more depending how far down the line you look.

Bettman and Daley already said that there wont be a CBO with a flat cap, Only way there's a CBO or CBOs is if the cap drops dramatically. Bettman and Daley and the Players are against them.

If the cap drops enough that there are CBOs being handed out, moving any sort of player wont be easy...especially the middle 6 guys like Kapanen, Kerfoot and Johnsson who get paid like the cap is higher.

Yeah I doubt it happens either, but this is hypothetical. If the cap drops a million and there is a CBO it's the same scenario and the Leafs financial might is even more powerful.

Did you not look at what I did above? If the cap drops a team like the Islanders will have to cut salary and they have many players they'd need to move to be able to afford Barzal. Buyout Ladd and it's only 5.5 million but they still have 6 million tied up in Boychuk and 3+ for Leo. If you can move that 6 million to a team that doesn't have any CBO candidates, like the Leafs. You are going to pursue that, you won't have a choice. Now switching Johnsson, or Kerfoot or Kapanen and getting rid of 6 million in dead cap is worth a pile. I bet Kap could net you a mid 1st and possibly something else from some teams who need to clear bad deals off the books. A CBO scenario would be terrific for the Leafs.

If they are so desperate for cap space and are going to pay a load, why wouldnt they just go with a team where they didnt have to take 3 mil in cap space back and in your scenario, do it for less?

On top of that, as pointed out in your example, the Leafs would still need to move extra personnel off the roster in addition to the one they traded for their CBO candidate. In a league where everyone is trying to move off cap, whos going to pay a 1st for a now overpaid middle 6 forward?

You are factoring in how a lower cap would effect other teams when it comes to finding value for the Leafs but not factoring it in for how it effects the value (or cap situation frankly) of the Leafs themselves.

Because there are very few teams that don't have CBO candidates of their own. Almost every team either has no space and bad contracts or are just up against the cap themselves. The teams that do have cap space that can afford taking on 2 more years of 6 million for Boychuk or 3 more years of 5.5 of Ladd are very few and if they don't have the money or have a bad contract of their own they need to get rid of that list drops even further. Or the Islanders would send another asset to one of those teams to get rid of Leo. And with all that, there are more than 1 team in a similar situation. Edmonton has Russel and Neal for example. There are more teams with multiple CBO candidates than there are teams without any. And there are more teams against the cap than with space. Teams in really bad spots like the Islanders are going to have to get creative and teams like TO will be able to take advantage.

If you call Johnsson over paid, what is Bailey? Or Brock Nelson or Eberle or one of the other 5 million dollar players who are both older and slower with a higher cap hit than Johnsson. Those guys are overpaid, Johnsson is not.

And yet you think that moving now overpaid middle 6 players would be easy. Come full circle with your thinking and realize how it effects the Leafs.

There a lot of players in the NHL inferior to Johnsson or equal to Johnsson who make 5+ million. The Islanders alone have 5 of them.

Thats nice but its also irrelevant. Other players are overpaid but here you are trying to get the moon to move 1 of them while claiming other teams are going to easily take on your overpaid winger. Johnsson is barely (if even) worth his aav as is at an 81.5 mil cap. If the cap were to drop, he'd be overpaid and not an easy asset to move while almost every team is reeling from a lowered cap.

I guess when you put it that way it makes some sense. Maybe just because I'm not in love with Johnsson.

Isles are more invested long-term in Wahlstrom and possibly Bellows than trading for Johnsson.

A 40+ point winger with speed is definitely worth 3.4 million. Most guys in that price range are 30 point wingers. The point above though is if there is a CBO, the Leafs have a huge advantage, instead of just buying out Johnsson and losing an asset they can move him for an actual CBO candidate is a win win. Just look through the teams on this site and you'll find there are more teams in a similar situation to the Islanders. If the cap falls a lot of teams are going to be in huge trouble. For those teams if they can gain another 2-3 million in cap space by changing a bad contract for Johnsson that will be very appealing. I don't get how you don't understand that.

I just use him because he's easiest to replace internally for TO. He's a good player, I actually think he's better than Kapanen but TO's depth at RW is not nearly as good as it is at LW. Move Johnsson and you have Robertson to fill the spot.

CBOs are wet dream.
Not happening.

I feel we could a 3rd rounder from Sharks for Johnsson.

That is not the point, the point is the Islanders have a pretty bad cap situation. And if the cap falls and there is a CBO, you have at least 3 guys that you'd want to buy out. Ladd is #1 and then Boychuk and then Leo. I'd argue you have several other options as well but I doubt Lou sees it that way. So if the cap falls and you can only get rid of 1 of those on your own, how to do you sign Barzal? Where is the future money for Dobson, Wahlstrom and other guys? The Islanders would be a team I'd talk to about taking on one of those deals to buyout since TO doesn't really have a candidate of their own. They can get a younger cheaper player that is useable in their lineup and save significant cap space.

Actually, Leddy is no. 1. Then Komarov, then Ladd, then Boychuk.

I agree, this is just a hypothetical but if they come to fruition TO could really benefit. Its sort of like the expansion draft when teams gave up 1st rounders so Vegas wouldn't take certain players. TO can get assets so they can save the other team money. Its a scenario where Johnsson gets more than a 3rd rounder in return.

That just reinforces my point. 4 CBO candidates on 1 team, while TO has none.

But the Islanders can simply trade Leddy and or Komarov. Ladd will most likely be involved in a trade package with Seattle. Boychuk will most likely play his last year in 2022.

If the cap falls, which is the scenario that makes CBO's a possibility, then no you aren't trading Leddy or Komarov, even now it will be so hard to move either, they are massively overpriced, Leddy is barely an NHLer at this point and you still hve Boychuck and Ladd for 2 and 3 more seasons. Seattle isn't going to do you any favours either, the Islanders are going to be in a spot where they are going to have to dig their way out of their poor cap management.