Quoting: Yojimbo
A. Make your trade
vs
B. Resign Murray, he is picked in the ED
A. Have Anderson for next year then he is gone (UFA)
B. Have Murray for next year then he is gone (via ED)
Net: zero
A. Have Johnsson but someone other than Murray is taken (most likely a F based on projected protection list) so +1 F in Johnsson, -1 F in whoever gets taken (potentially Johnsson himself), +1 -1 = 0 change at F
B. Murray taken so no F taken, 0 change at F
Net: zero
A. Pens sent a 3rd to Toronto
B. Pens keep the 3rd
Net: Pens have the 3rd
Therefore: Net zero + net zero + 3rd = Pens ahead by a 3rd by not doing your trade and just settling for having Murray lost "for free" in the ED. They end up with more by not doing your trade.
What part of this logic do you not get?
Nothing prevents you from re-signing Andersen.
Probably going to be slightly cheaper option, really.
Also I believe Johnsson will belong to those 7 forwards that'll get protected. Imo they'll protect Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Zucker, Rust, McCann, Johnsson, Letang, Dumoulin, Pettersson and Jarry.
You'd lose one player regardless in the ED, so adding it to a minus value for this trade is just stupid. This trade have nothing go to do with the fact - it only helps you in way that you won't be losing a good asset in Murray. You'd probably lose someone like Simon or Blueger anyway, no matter whether you do this trade or some other Murray trade, really.
Also it's likely that Pens will do some move strengthening move anyway, and gaining a Johnsson level player for a 3rd should be a good deal a in itself.