Thanks for tagging me in this! I normally just lurk in ACGM cuz I can't figure out where the active forums are lol, but I'm happy to provide my two cents on how I think this year will go in a few more words than you'd expect on an ACGM.
In terms of the offense, I really think the top guys will bounce back (at least partially) and as a whole, the team should improve significantly. We saw career low years from Gaudreau and Monahan (with the exception of their rookie years), as well as Bennett, and Tkachuk and Lindholm both took a step back as well. While Gaudreau and Monahan might not match their 18-19 numbers, they should improve to at least a point per game and 70 point pace respectively imo, Bennett should hopefully build on a strong last two weeks+playoffs to become an effective 3C (15 goals, 35 points area), and I believe it's reasonable to expect Tkachuk and Lindholm to return to their 18-19 form or even improve. Mangiapane and Dube should also improve, hopefully good for at least 50 and 40 points respectively, and Leivo was a solid addition, that should be another 15-20 goals from the 3rd line. Simon I don't have super high expectations for, we'll have to see if he gels with anyone in camp and makes the team over Nordstrom (a reliable PK guy, who we could use on PK2 with Ryan now that we no longer have Rieder and Jankowski). I think they all have the potential to beat these numbers, but I consider last season a significant down year for most of them (shoutout Backlund for his reliable 45 points lol) and these should be reasonable targets for an average year. They certainly have the talent to be a strong offensive team, and while they were below average last year, I think this team could be in the conversation for a top 10 offense. If the top players return to 18-19 form and the younger middle six guys continue to grow, we could be a top 3 offense again (compared to the 18-19 team, I'd say Mangiapane could be better than Frolik, Dube better than Jankowski, and Leivo better than Hathaway, and that squad was tied for 2nd in goals for).
On the back end there's been significant turnover but I don't think it's too much worse, pretty close to moot. I'd consider Brodie better than Tanev overall, maybe slight edge to Tanev looking at pure defense. Hamonic had a bad year but he's still a solid 4/5 guy, sucks to lose him but to make up for it we get Valimaki fully healthy and I think that could be a major boost. I think he's going to be a star, and could potentially force his way into top 4 minutes (basically meaning they do a 5-way split for even strength TOI like they did last season, everyone was around 18 minutes). He should at least have a similar impact to Gustafsson, although probably not on the top PP unit right away. Kylington, Nesterov, and Mackey are solid depth options with high upside fighting for the last spot or filling in in case of injury. I think their D looks better now than it did in the playoffs, and comparable to last season. Hopefully Tanev isn't going to let 6'7" Jamie ****ing Oleksiak walk in all alone with under a minute left. If Giordano stays the same that would be great, but I expect a slight regression. Hopefully the continued improvement of Andersson (who should claim his role as a top pair D this season) and Hanifin will offset that. One way we could help him is by moving him off PP1 so we can cut down on his ice time and make him more effective at even strength and on the PK, where we'll likely still rely on him heavily. I really liked Gustafsson being used in that role after we traded for him, but I don't see a clear PP1 candidate now. Hanifin and Andersson could both have a shot at PP1 (I'd like to see Andersson there, he's got an absolute bomb that he doesn't use nearly enough, and Hanifin was mostly mired in a defensive role last season but he does have offensive upside).
Markstrom's obviously a major boost in net. Calgary gives up less shots, scoring chances, and high danger chances per 60 than Vancouver, and while rush/rebound attempts against were similar, the average shot distance was about a foot further away for Calgary, so Markstrom should theoretically be facing a slightly easier workload than he did last season. I don't expect him to win a Vezina or anything (that would be nice though lol, I'm so done with the Ortio/Ramo/Hiller/Smith/Gillies/Elliott carousel we had for years where I could never trust the goalie to make a save) but I think it's fair to say he could be a top 10 goalie and steal a few games we shouldn't win. Honestly, as long as he can stop the pucks he should stop I'll be happy.
As for the lines, I expect the forwards to shake out one of two ways, as I'll outline below. Regardless I don't think Gaudreau and Monahan should be split up, as I'm scared of Monahan's effectiveness without him and it would likely mean Tkachuk and Monahan would then be on the same line, which isn't great as neither is exactly fast, so Johnny+Mony should be a lock.
Gaudreau-Monahan-Lindholm
Tkachuk-Backlund-Mangiapane
Lucic-Bennett-Dube
Nordstrom/Simon-Ryan-Leivo
This is basically what we had last year, with only the 4th line looking different. This would be what we go with if Ward decides to keep that 3rd line together (excellent chemistry in the last 2 weeks of the regular season and were our best forwards in the playoffs), as well as the 2nd line, which was our most effective matchup line that meshed well together. The assumption here would be to stick with what works and expect the top guns to figure out what they need to do to be scary again.
Tkachuk-Lindholm-Mangiapane
Gaudreau-Monahan-Leivo/Dube
Bennett-Backlund-Dube/Leivo
Lucic-Ryan-Simon/Nordstrom
This is what I expect the lines to look like if there's a shakeup and they move Lindholm to centre as they've been talking about recently. I believe what makes the most sense is to bump Backlund off last year's 2nd line and replace him with Lindholm, who is also effective defensively, but has much higher offensive upside and gives Tkachuk a consistent linemate capable of putting up more than 50 points for the first time (he's only really played consistently with Backlund and either Frolik or Mangiapane). Leivo would give Gaudreau another good shooter to pass to, or Dube would inject some youth and speed onto that line, which would still get the bulk of offensive zone starts. Backlund on the third line gives us a second really solid matchup line, and if he's playing with Bennett+Dube, that should be a significant improvement over Lucic on that unit. This is a big year for Bennett, he needs to prove he's worth keeping around or he's for sure off to Seattle. This would give him the opportunity to play with two good players (no bums like Lucic, Jankowski, Neal, or Czarnik, who have been some of his most common linemates the last couple years) which should help him bounce back offensively, and hopefully being on a matchup line will improve his 2-way game as well. Wingers on the 4th line are a toss up. I'd honestly be down to scratch Lucic but I doubt they sit 5.25mil in the press box, especially after he showed he could be reasonably effective again in the playoffs.
As for the D, I think they'll probably be as follows:
Giordano-Andersson
Hanifin-Tanev
Kylington-Valimaki
Gio should still be top pair calibre and Andersson is expected to step into that role full time now that Brodie is gone. Hanifin and Tanev will form a great shutdown pair, and Tanev's strength in this regard will allow Hanifin a little more offensive leeway. This is a super solid top four with a good mix of offense and defense, plus a veteran partnered with a younger guy with expectations on both pairs which is better than just being on the same team, playing with a guy every night means a lot. Valimaki is a lock for the team out of camp, but the 6th spot could go to Kylington or Nesterov, with the other being the spare. I believe Valimaki played RD in Finland so he might play that side, I've also heard Nesterov played RD in Russia so a Valimaki-Nesterov 3rd pair could be a thing. One way or another we'll have a leftie at 3RD (unless we sign Bowey or something?) as I don't see Yelesin or Petrovic making the team out of camp this year. Really hyped for Valimaki, I think he's our future 1LD beside Andersson and has the potential to take on big minutes relatively quickly.
Brian2016 liked this.
Reply
CapFriendly
CapFriendly