The NJD forward problem

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: MartysBetter29

Team: 2020-21 New Jersey Devils

Initial Creation Date: Apr. 8, 2021

Published: Apr. 8, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

The Devils have done a pretty decent job acquiring assets in recent years and have had some lottery luck to aid the rebuild. But the on-ice results have been extremely poor and there seems to be a lack of top tier talent beyond the two #1OAs. I projected our young guys into 4 classes, legitimate NHL top 6, hopeful/fringe NHL top 6, legitimate bottom 6 and unlikely NHLer. By legitimate I am talking about can they adequately fill that role on a competitive playoff team in the future.

LW: legit top 6
C: hopeful/fringe top 6
RW: legit bottom 6
LD: unlikely legit NHLer

Basically what I found (as expected) is that there are a TON of bottom 6 worthy young players. I could be overvaluing some guys but I really don't look at any of them as unlikely to play legit bottom 6 minutes in the NHL at some point whether it's with NJ or somewhere else.

But as you go further left the bar gets smaller and smaller. I don't know if you can project any players or prospects comfortably as top 6 players after Hughes and Hischier. There are a few hopeful top 6 guys with Holtz probably closest to breaking the threshold as a legit top 6 but overall slim pickings.

Unfortunately the NHL isn't built to be kind to teams with weak top 6's and good but young bottom 6's. In fact it's pretty much the exact opposite. Get elite, fast, young players in the top 6 and fill out the bottom 6 with experienced vets.

I'm not proposing NJ go out and sign a bunch of 35 year old grinders to play bottom 6. I'm more interested in the idea of how you move some of those pieces on the right to get a significant piece or two to put into the left or center column. I don't have any great ideas because Im an internet dummy but I'd hope Devils management are open to finding creative solutions to turn an abundance of average young talent into a couple of premiere talents. Easier said than done.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Holtz, Alexander		3	$925,000
Moynihan, Patrick		3	$925,000

Buyouts

Cory Schneider: $2,000,000
Mike Cammalleri: $1,666,667

Retained Salary Transactions

Travis Zajac: $2,875,000 (50%)
Kyle Palmieri: $2,325,000 (50%)

Recapture Fees

Ilya Kovalchuk: $250,000

Buried

Connor Carrick: $425,000 ($1,500,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
28	$81,500,000	$68,124,387	$0	$4,205,000	$13,375,613

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Hughes, Jack $925,000$925,000 ($2,850,000$3M) C UFA - 2	Holtz, Alexander $925,000$925,000 RW, LW RFA	Zacha, Pavel $2,250,000$2,250,000 C, LW UFA - 2
Hischier, Nico $7,250,000$7,250,000 C UFA - 7	Mercer, Dawson $925,000$925,000 RW, C RFA - 4	Sharangovich, Yegor $775,833$775,833 ($132,500$132K) C, LW, RW UFA - 1
	Bratt, Jesper $2,750,000$2,750,000 RW, LW UFA - 2	Kuokkanen, Janne $811,666$811,666 ($32,500$32K) LW, C UFA - 1
	Foote, Nolan $894,167$894,167 LW RFA - 4	McLeod, Michael $863,333$863,333 ($500,000$500K) C RFA - 1
		Wood, Miles $2,750,000$2,750,000 LW UFA - 2
		Maltsev, Mikhail $809,167$809,167 ($132,500$132K) C, LW UFA - 2
		Thompson, Tyce $912,500$912,500 ($25,000$25K) RW RFA - 2
		Merkley, Nick $874,125$874,125 RW, C UFA - 1
		Bastian, Nathan $714,166$714,166 ($132,500$132K) RW UFA - 1
		Moynihan, Patrick $925,000$925,000 C RFA
		Boqvist, Jesper $925,000$925,000 C, LW RFA - 2
		Johnsson, Andreas $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 3

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
	Subban, P.K. $9,000,000$9,000,000 RD UFA - 2	Blackwood, Mackenzie $2,800,000$2,800,000 G UFA - 3
	Butcher, Will $2,822,764$2,822,764 LD UFA - 2	Dell, Aaron $800,000$800,000 G UFA - 1
	Kulikov, Dmitry $1,150,000$1,150,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Wedgewood, Scott $700,000$700,000 G UFA - 1
	Vatanen, Sami $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD/RD UFA - 1
	Smith, Ty $863,333$863,333 ($400,000$400K) LD/RD RFA - 3
	Murray, Ryan $4,600,000$4,600,000 LD UFA - 1
	Severson, Damon $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 3

Taxi Squad
Gusev, Nikita $1,000,000$1,000,000 ($0$0$0$0) RW, LW UFA - 1
Okhotiuk, Nikita $795,000$795,000 ($0$0$0$0) LD RFA - 4
Jacobs, Josh $700,000$700,000 ($0$0$0$0) RD UFA - 1

Apr. 8, 2021 at 8:00 a.m.

ForsbergForVezina

CHI NYI

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 4,669

Likes: 2,253

As you get closer to being truly competitive again, spending on talent in free agency or through trades starts to make more sense. So perhaps in the near future, someone will become available via one of those methods and the Devils can use their surplus of assets to pounce on the opportunity.

This year, NJ will probably pick no later than 7th, so they’ll get another opportunity to take a potential top-6 forward, adding to that collection of four you currently have. So then let’s say you hit on 3 out of those 5. Ultimately that’s not so bad. Add a bigger name down the line or be surprised by one of the guys who you’re projecting to be bottom 6 now and you have a pretty good group for the top 6.

I definitely see your concern; beyond Hischier and Hughes, there’s very little wow-factor to this team’s future, but you know better than I do that they aren’t fine building. Will be interesting to see where they go next and what moves they make when they start getting a lot closer

cperk92, zyyyp and MartysBetter29 liked this.

Apr. 8, 2021 at 10:37 a.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,256

Likes: 18,755

HUGHES and HISCHIER - 1C and 2C
BRATT, HOLTZ, MERCER - top-6 wings
SHARANGOVICH, ZACHA - possible top-6 wings or 3C
FOOTE - probably 3rd liner who plays PP1
KUOKKANEN, THOMPSON, GRITSYUK, PASIC - skilled wingers who could reach top-6 ceiling
BASTIAN, WOOD, MCLEOD, MALTSEV, PYTLIK - some heavies for bottom-6
TALVITIE, MOYNIHAN - smart, two-way forwards that could find roles in bottom-6
CLARKE - Right-shot sniper with considerably high ceiling. But always hurt.
BOQVIST - Too much speed and skill for his production. Still has middle-six upside, but I think will need change of scenery.

Add in a 2021 draft that could such combos as

Edvinsson (6), Lucius (24)...or...
Guenther (6), Lambos (24)...or...
Lysell (6), Sillinger (24)...

We'll be good.
Defense is bigger concern for me.

MartysBetter29 liked this.

Apr. 8, 2021 at 5:24 p.m.

MartysBetter29

Thread Starter

MartysBetter

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 787

Likes: 181

Quoting: ForsbergForVezina

Agreed on all points.

Apr. 8, 2021 at 5:36 p.m.

MartysBetter29

Thread Starter

MartysBetter

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 787

Likes: 181

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Yeah I agree, I'm not overly concerned about the forward group more just interested in where we are at right now. Having a ton of young middle/bottom 6 players isn't a bad thing. I would muchhhh rather be where they are now than back a few years ago where the forward group rounded out with guys like Michael Ryder, P.A. Parenteau, Tyler Kennedy, and Tuomo Ruutu. The only problem/area to address that I see coming is there are only 12 forward roster spots. Even if things work out and our top 6 includes Hischier, Hughes, Holtz, Mercer, and Bratt that still leaves the rest competing for 6 slots, and that's assuming they don't add a single vet. So who sits if you can only pick 6?
- Zacha
- Sharangovich
- Foote
- Kuokkanen
- Wood
- McLeod
- Bastian
- Thompson
- Clarke
- Maltsev
- Talvitie
- Boqvist
- etc, etc.

I think you are having to leave a couple of guys off the roster that you would like to give a shot. Which isn't a bad thing necessarily, just shows how improved the depth is from years past. But I am curious if they can find ways to move some of those pieces to try to add higher skill or address other areas of need like D which I agree with you completely is a much greater concern at the moment.

Apr. 8, 2021 at 5:58 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,256

Likes: 18,755

Quoting: ForsbergForVezina

beyond Hischier and Hughes, there’s very little wow-factor to this team’s future, but you know better than I do that they aren’t fine building.

They have the youngest team in NHL (average under 25 years old)
The 3rd smallest team.
And a team with an average of 4.6 years of NHL experience, lowest of any team in years.
They have $36 million in current cap space.
With patient ownership.
And one of the best pipelines in all of hockey.
What do you suggest they do? Blow it up before half their kids arrive?

The forward group doesn't worry me in the slightest. They are very young, very small and inexperienced.
The defense is where they should focus.
Smith, Severson look great.
And I'd hope we'd get 2 good ones from Bahl, Walsh, Mukhammadullin, Okhotyuk, Misyul, McCarthy, Vukojovich, Edwards.
Maybe can draft one stud this year acquire another young defensive d-man later.

Future is really, really bright.
They are fine building.

Apr. 8, 2021 at 6:14 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,256

Likes: 18,755

Quoting: MartysBetter29

I'm guessing the lineup in a few years, among existing options, would look like this

1st: Zacha - Hischier - Bratt
2nd: Kuokkanen - Hughes - Holtz
3rd: Foote - Sharangovich - Mercer
4th: Wood, McLeod, Bastian
extra: Gritsyuk, Thompson, Pasic, Clarke, Maltsev, Pytlik

If Thompson, Gritsyuk or Clarke (or even Boqvist) reach their offensive potential, could also look like this:

1st: Zacha - Hischier - Holtz
2nd: Bratt - Hughes - [Thompson, Gritsyuk, Clarke]
3rd: Foote - Sharangovich - Mercer
4th: Kuokkanen, McLeod, Bastian
extra: Wood, Pasic, Maltsev, Pytlik [Thompson, Gritsyuk, Clarke]

Say Sharangovich continues to grow into shooter...Gritsyuk arrives, and they trade Wood for d-man, lose Bastian to Seattle....

1st: Sharangovich - Hischier - Mercer
2nd: Bratt - Hughes - Holtz
3rd: Foote - Zacha - Gritsyuk
4th: Maltsev - McLeod - Pytlik
extra: Maltsev, Pasic, Clarke, Thompson, Kuokkanen

Lots of options and depth at forward.

MartysBetter29 liked this.

Apr. 8, 2021 at 6:29 p.m.

ForsbergForVezina

CHI NYI

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 4,669

Likes: 2,253

Quoting: NHLfan10506

I apologize. I typed this out right after I woke up. Upon 2nd reading I meant "They aren't done building." My apologies lol

MartysBetter29 and NHLfan10506 liked this.

Apr. 8, 2021 at 6:38 p.m.

MartysBetter29

Thread Starter

MartysBetter

Joined: Dec. 2017

Posts: 787

Likes: 181

Quoting: NHLfan10506

Watch, after all of this time fans like us spend projecting and formulating lineups they will pull some crazy stuff out of left field and end up with a completely different looking lineup. Always seems to go that way haha. I'm definitely optimistic about the future!!

Apr. 8, 2021 at 7:09 p.m.

NHLfan10506

Joined: May 2019

Posts: 41,256

Likes: 18,755

Quoting: MartysBetter29

2023 top-six
Lambert - Eichel - Kane
Hall - Henrique - Palmieri

MartysBetter29 liked this.

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