Quoting: BeterChiarelli
All of Barrie's underlying numbers insinuate he's being carried by Nurse. Bear, Jones, and Bouchard (small sample size alert) are winning the on-ice shot differential and outchancing Barrie at every facet except for PPP/60 and GF. Signing Barrie at the expense of Bear would be a disastrous move. All Barrie currently does for the Oilers is block Bouchard. His defensive numbers are actual garbage and I fully believe his $5.5M in this case is better suited elsewhere on the roster.
Bear is comfortably eating Barrie's 5v5 minutes and Bouchard offers more on the powerplay: he can make that first pass to McDavid and quarterback just as well (he mastered it in junior, the AHL, and in the Allsvenskan) but comes with a booming shot. Bear, Klefbom, and Nurse will all be vying for some powerplay time too. Barrie's a luxury, and I don't think Edmonton has the horses on the back end to afford his inability to defend. This setup, or one with an extended Kulikov > Lagesson, is still very much defence by committee. Using Barrie's money to add offense up front affords Edmonton the ability to match his offensive contribution in the top six while upgrading on the defence as a whole by using a slightly more defensively apt Bouchard in his stead. It's less addition by subtraction but more addition through distribution. The combination of say, Buchnevich and Bouchard, may cost as much as Barrie, but offers the same offence (if not more) plus extra defence. Mathematically, the team is better without him, even though his efforts haven't gone unnoticed this season. Factor in that mild upgrade to defence with a substantial upgrade to both the goaltender and the strength of Edmonton's top 2 or 3 lines, and all of a sudden there's a quality reduction in both shots and goals against. His money and presence on the roster blocks a genuine improvement to the team as a whole because he's so one-dimensional: he comes with pure offense at the sacrifice of defence. That money covers the spread on two players who can bring both elements.
I don't necessarily think a Benson-McLeod-Kassian line (or Holloway>Benson) would be as defensively inept as you're anticipating: Benson and McLeod are both primary facets of Bakersfield's PK. If they can see a bias towards offensive zone starts and the 4th line eats more of the defensive zone starts, I think things should balance out quite nicely. It's very important to remember that if Edmonton has a fully-loaded top-six, teams have to spread their best talents across those two forward groups to prevent getting eaten alive. If the trio of Shore-Khaira-Archibald is suffocating enough to nullify whatever depth offense an opposing team has, that rookie line can feast on easy matchups against opposing 4th lines.
I think Bear's metrics since he returned from his most recent concussion are indicative of a gem. Beyond the first three shaky games he had, he's posted CF% and GF% numbers consistently above 50% (only Oiler defender to do so in the past 10 games) and he routinely hits the 60% benchmark. He's a very quiet and effective defender and I truly believe that he's a piece the Oilers must hold onto for as long as possible. The fact that he's shown the ability to pair perfectly with Nurse, exceed expectations, and post the numbers he has suggests that Edmonton found one of the most effective modern defenders late in 2015. There are many names in this organization I'd move before Bear: remember during the DoD when we didn't have right-handed puck-moving defenders? Bear and Bouchard should be virtually untouchable unless at a steal of a deal.
I think you have fair points all around so I guess, I'd move to my next question. Would you prefer Team A or Team B:
Team A:
Nuge(6M)/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Hall(6M)/Draisaitl/Yamamoto
McLeod/Lowry(3M)/Kassian
Shore(750K)/Khaira(1.2M)/Archibald
Benson (750K)/Marody (750K)
Nurse/Barrie (5.5M)
Klefbom/Larsson (3.5M)
Oleksiak (2M)/Bouchard
Lagesson
Driedger (3.5M)/Smith (1.5M)
Trades: Koskinen with 2M retained to any team, Bear and Neal to Seattle
Team B:
Nuge(6M)/McDavid/Puljujarvi
Buchnevich(4.5M)/Draisaitl/Yamamoto
Benson/McLeod/Kassian
Shore(750K)/Khaira(1.2M)/Archibald
Neal/Marody (750K)
Nurse/Bear
Klefbom/Larsson (3.5M)
Oleksiak (2M)/Bouchard
Lagesson
Driedger (3.5M)/Smith(1.5M)
Trades: Koskinen with 2M retained
I honestly prefer team A more. Bigger, can all skate well, and put up points. Yes Bear is good, I think we can also use him as a trade chip to fill some of our needs like clearing cap to make way for a top 6 F or add a goalie. I wouldn't mind Buchnevich on Team A as well but I just think Hall has more of a capability to carry his own line than Buchnevich. If we ever play Draisaitl and McDavid together, Nuge can't carry his own line. We almost need another forward who's just as or better than him.