Quoting: RazWild
I'm pretty sure the cap recapture would clock in at his full $7.538M cap hit for four years, until the full cap penalty was paid off, if he actually retired without going on LTIR.
Quoting: BoredWildFan
PENALTY FOR 2021 RETIREMENT
2021-22
$5,038,463
2022-23
$5,038,463
2023-24
$5,038,463
2024-25
$5,038,463
PENALTY FOR 2022 RETIREMENT
2022-23
$6,717,950
2023-24
$6,717,950
2024-25
$6,717,950
PENALTY FOR 2023 RETIREMENT
2023-24
$7,538,461
2024-25
$7,538,461
2025-26
$5,076,929
PENALTY FOR 2024 RETIREMENT
2024-25
$7,538,461
2025-26
$7,538,461
2026-27
$5,076,929
The cap recapture penalty is the accrued cap advantage divided by the years remaining on his contract. The only way his recapture penalty would equal his cap hit in any year would be if the was traded (thus freezing the advantage) and retired when the penalty would otherwise be more than his cap hit. Bored, your numbers are assuming the cap advantage does not decrease as his salary dips below his cap hit which is incorrect.
Here's the breakdown of recapture penalties based on the year he retires, all assuming he isn't traded:
Summer 2021 - $5.04 million for 4 years ($20.154 million cap advantage)
Summer 2022 - $6.21 million for 3 years ($18.615 million cap advantage)
Summer 2023 - $6.54 million for 2 years ($13.077 million cap advantage)
Summer 2024 - $6.54 million for 1 year ($6,538 million cap advantage)
Summer 2025 (end of contract) - $0 ($0 cap advantage)
If you want the rules for cap recapture, it's in Article 50.5 of the 2013 CBA. The amendment in the MOU from last summer just prevents something like a $20.154 million single year cap penalty if he were to be traded and retire elsewhere with 1 year left on his deal. It doesn't fundamentally change the recapture penalty in scenarios where the accrued cap advantage divided by years remaining on the contract would be less than the cap hit as would be the case in any year if he is not traded.