Awesome! Great post, no need to go crazy. Our starter, and top line 2-way left winger. Our two biggest needs filled. I wonder if we will get Coleman, since Holland tried to trade our first for him.

They'll kick the tires on him for sure, but even if they go Coleman > Kahun, there won't be enough money left until the deadline for Klefbom to return.

Of course a Neal buyout as opposed to burial remedies this but my intent is to limit how long Edmonton carries his dead cap. 2 years is much more favourable than 4 years.

If it comes down to protecting Archibald they should try to swing a trade to actually have someone valuable in that protection spot idk it's just kinda unfortunate

Or take on a F from another team that'll be exposed

Kieffer Bellows or his ilk

Why?

Archibald has internal value to the Oilers: he's a PK wizard and Tippett runs him up and down the roster. He's a multitool. Protecting him isn't a big deal.

i like.

Bottom 6 could use an upgrade imo

Who do you have in mind? I have Blake Coleman in mind still, and I think Holland will get him, but it depends on if Klefbom comes back.

Yup I'm also thinking Coleman. You gotta think Holland uses McDavid's generational talent as leverage and fills at least one need with a bargain, 1-year deal (similar to the Barrie situation). I could see Saad signing under $3mill to boost his stats with McDavid, he's young enough to land a big contract after a career year. Holloway - McLeod - Coleman seems like a fast, strong, defensively capable 3rd line

What incentive is there for Saad to actually take a one-year incentive deal so low? I believe he and Tatar are effectively interchangeable but that deal will be in the ballpark of $5M/3y no matter which man takes it. I don't see what risk you're talking about either. It's not like either guy is decrepitly old nor does Tatar play a style of game that's left hard miles on his body.

I don't want Holloway in the NHL next season beyond his 9 games and I'd start him the year after on the 3rd line. Merit. Not potential. If Holloway comes out of the gate like a banshee then sure, elevate him. All that means is one of Tatar or Nugent-Hopkins will be on the 3rd line and now the Oilers are looking at their deepest run of forwards literally ever. Not even the 80s Oilers had that kind of depth. A specific sect of fans, the media, and seemingly management have been religiously against having more than 3 or 4 skilled forwards in the lineup at any given time for no reason other than thinking pure physicality is the only way to get anything done in this league.

I like Coleman too, see my above post.

Yes, this bottom-six setup is miles ahead of what we've seen this year. The common trios we've seen on our back end include:

Neal - McLeod - Chiasson
Ennis - Khaira - Archibald
Shore - Khaira - Archibald

Losing Chiasson and Neal is addition via subtraction for both the third line AND the powerplay. Both men are slower than February's molasses and getting Chiasson out of dodge frees up powerplay time for Puljujarvi and Yamamoto. Shore is an actual black hole in terms of chances against: he's essentially all defence and no offense and routinely gets shelled when he's on the ice. Benson is one of Bakersfield's best defensive forwards (staple on their PK, has the skill to produce) and is worth Shore's roster spot every day of the week. Given that Archibald, Khaira, and McLeod are returning, this essentially boils down to the Oilers not getting caved in because Chiasson and Neal can't keep up to other NHL forwards and Shore probably shouldn't be an NHL regular. Kassian needs a revival: given that Holland just signed that deal, he's not going to look to get out of it the year after. I think Zack's got a year or two to prove that he's worth his money or the Oilers will look to move him. Kahun is posting third-line production but definitely saw his assist rates drop substantially. I can't really explain why, but his career A/60 rate at 5v5 is about 3.5x higher than what Kahun posted this season. Career rates would have had Kahun at 14 assists on the year and closer to half a point per game: I think he has more to give and I think Holland sees that too. Essentially a younger Ennis. Nevermind that my description highlights #3LW as the main 'weakness' of the team and that it's the position I'd look to upgrade on at the deadline.

Koskinen has proven he's a capable tandem goaltender or a capable backup. If Edmonton's looking at success next season, they're finding a starter they can platoon with Koskinen. He's shown that he can't handle the majority of the workload. They could commit to a short-term tandem this year for sure - please don't bring back Smith and fire the goddamn goaltending staff - but I fully suspect the Oilers to look to the winner of Konovalov vs Skinner to be the backup in 2022-23 unless both of them suck next year.

The problem with 'show-me' deals is that the requisite player needs to either have had a bad year / some form of glaring criticism or are asking for far too much money in free agency to the point no team is willing to accommodate them. The former being Barrie's case, the latter Hall's. There's no incentive for a player to just do teams a favour: NHL players are already notoriously underpaid, why exacerbate the problem?

I like that! Not a fan of bringing up Holloway though. Maybe Kassian, or Benson could fill that spot instead. Saad I would like to have, but who knows if he will sign for 3M. That’s very low, as he is getting 6M in total this year. I see him getting around 5M honestly, and I wouldn’t mind being the team that pays that.

They aren't doing the team a favour, they're doing themselves a favour, that's the whole point. It's a new concept, but I think when Barrie signs for around $6mill in free agency, agents will take notice. Why not miss out on $2mill for a year to get paid an extra $2mill for the next 5 years? The logic works imo

This bottom 6 might be marginally better. I think the problem is that besides McLeod, it's a bunch of passengers. Coleman would definitely be a good addition. I think Holloway is a full time NHLer by new years. Add Coleman and Holloway to that bottom 6 and it's very solid

I figure Smith is back next season whether we like it or not

Saad has just above half a point per game. Not worth that imo

Yah, but some players don’t play good on certain teams. Saad is great, and he has 24P in 44GP. He will get that much.

It's not that your logic is off, that's the basis of a show-me deal. I'm telling you there is no 'show me' candidate this year.

I don't know how many times I have to agree with you on Coleman before you start getting the point. Read my posts instead of just clicking reply.

My philosophy for a championship-calibre team is to acquire a top-six winger at the deadline and play them on the 3rd line. Benson's earned NHL games and I think Holland wants to bring Kahun back in some capacity. There's no need to have Holloway by New Years beyond his 9-game stint if we're looking at bringing in a proven NHL forward at the deadline.



Points per game don't paint a very clear picture about Saad's production. His shooting metrics and GF/60 are among the league-leading. Colorado gave him third-line minutes and he still had a 28-goal pace in an 82 game season. Both he and Tatar are likely going to sign for dueling $5x3's. That's just the market for their ilk.