Team: 2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Jul. 7, 2021

Published: Jul. 7, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

RFAs:
Dermott is a good bottom pair dman who has top 4, puck moving, two way dman upside. Getting him at 1.25 AAV for 2 years is good value.

UFA resignings:
Galchenyuk showed great chemistry with whoever he played with in the top 6, but especially Nylander. Getting him at 1.2 million will be amazing value, as I think he can put up 20+ goals and 50+ points with top 6 offensive minutes with skilled players. He gets to showcase his talents and likely earn himself a bigger, 3-5 year contract in 2022.
Bogosian was a good fit as the 6th dman last year. He brought physicality, steady defensive play, and was really good in front of his own net. His skating and puck moving ability also really surprised me, as he is much better in those areas than I thought. Resigning him on a 1 year, 900k deal, is a low-risk, medium-to-high-reward deal.

UFA signings:
Coleman is a fantastic middle 6 forward. While I think he is easily worth 5 million or so a year, the depressed covid market will knock down his value. At 4x4, he can be a great 2 way player, bringing grit, energy, hard forechecking and great all-around play while chipping in with solid offence.
Granlund is a good middle 6 forward. He is solid defensively, brings a lot of speed and energy, and will chip in with around 50 points.
Bernier has put up very good numbers when you take into account he has played in front of an atrocious Detroit team. He can play anywhere from 25 games as a backup to 40 games as a platoon guy and step in as a starter if Campbell gets hurt. The 1 year deal means that the Leafs will have money to give to Campbell when he is a UFA after this year (or give it to another goalie) which is key.
Pateryn is a very good 7th dman. He can step in and play in a shutdown role if injuries come or if Liljegren isn't ready for the minutes he would get on the 2nd pair. He has very good defensive numbers and analytics and will be a good veteran 7th dman.

Trades:
(Trades are in chronological order)
Kerfoot to Edmonton:
Kerfoot is almost certainly going to be lost if the Leafs go the 4 and 4 route. I think the Oilers is an underrated spot for him. He showed he plays best with skilled offensive players, and I think he could breakout in the Oilers top 6 alongside McDavid or Draisaitl. He is cheap at only 3.5 mill against the cap and costs even less in real dollars. He also can be acquired for only a 2nd round pick which is much less than you would have to pay for other top 6 options.

Expansion draft:
I went the 4 and 4 route, protecting Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Brodie, Muzzin, Rielly, and Dermott, as well as Campbell in net. I protected Dermott over Holl because it was clear that Holl really benefitted off of playing with Muzzin, and I think Liljegren (or Dermott) can step into that role and do just as well. Dermott has a lot more upside and is cheaper than Holl as well. That said, Holl is still a useful #4 dman and at only 2 million would have a lot of suitors if Seattle looked to trade him at the 2022 deadline, 2022 offseason, or 2023 deadline.

Engvall to Buffalo: The Leafs just need to get rid of Engvall, he makes way too much money to be the 12th/13th/14th forward. Buffalo would be interested in my opinion, as he is 26 and has proven he can be a solid bottom 6er. Buffalo also needs players, and he comes for only a 7th.

Rielly to Winnipeg: I love Rielly, but it seems as though the writing is on the wall for his time in Toronto to end. I think Sandin will and should replace him on the top PP unit, and that means that the Leafs don't need his offensive specialist talents anymore. Winnipeg is desperate for dmen, and I think Rielly makes a lot of sense for them. He is still a top pairing caliber dman, and I think he and Neal Pionk would make a good top pairing. The Leafs get a 1st and a 3rd, which I think is fair value, and Rielly resigns in Winnipeg for 6 years at a 6.5 million AAV.

Lines:
Forwards:
Line 1: Matthews and Marner have showed amazing chemistry and that was demonstrated in the points and goals they racked up in the regular season. The playoffs however, were a different story. The Habs zeroed in on Matthews and forced Marner to shoot, which he did not. Because of that, the Leafs need to add another sniper onto that line. Robertson is that guy. He put up a goal a game in junior with Peterborough, and has 30+ goal potential in the NHL. He is also an extremely hard worker and will battle in the corners, just like the (in this scenario) departed Zach Hyman.
Line 2: Galchenyuk, Tavares, and Nylander showed great chemistry in the tail end of the regular season. Nylander and Tavares both have shown they can drive a line, and I predict both will have 35+ goals and be around a point a game. As I said before, I think Chucky can put up 20+ goals and 50+ points. This 2nd line will be one of the best in the league and provide a lot offensively.
Line 3: Coleman-Granlund-Mikheyev is a hard working, fast, pestering checking 3rd line. It will be able to play against top scoring lines and do a good job shutting them down with its speed, be a great forechecking line with lots of energy, and also chip in with some secondary scoring. Mikheyev can't have that much bad luck again this year, and I expect his offensive output to improve.
Line 4: Brooks showed that he deserved a full time NHL role, and I think he can be a very effective 4th line centre. Spezza was amazing last year in a 4th line/2nd PP role, and there is no reason he can't do that again. Simmonds brings physicality and can chip in offensively. Joey Anderson can also rotate into the lineup, bringing more physicality and a good all around game.

Defense:
Pairing 1: Sandin slides up to play with Brodie. Brodie was fantastic last year, and his steady all-around play will allow Sandin to have confidence in all ends of the ice. Sandin could certainly put up 50+ points in his first full NHL season.
Pairing 2: Muzzin is the Leafs best dman. He elevated Holl last year, and there is no reason to think he can't do the same with Liljegren. Liljegren has had a lot of time to develop, and he has become a good 2 way, puck moving dman. While he may struggle, especially against tougher matchups, having Muzzin as a partner will allow him to quickly acclimate to the NHL and I think he will solidify himself as a top 4 dman by the end of the season.
Pairing 3: Dermott could certainly get the 2nd pairing minutes over Muzzin. However, I kept him on the 3rd pair for now. He and Bogosian looked good as a pairing last year, and that should carry over. If Dermott has a breakout season, which I think has a high chance of happening, this could be one of the best 3rd pairings. Pateryn is the 7th dman who can play on the 2nd "shutdown" pair with Muzzin if Liljegren isn't ready, or could play 3rd pair minutes if injuries strike.

Goaltending: Campbell is the starter. He earned it last year, and he has the pedigree to be a great NHL starter. Bernier is a great backup option. He can play 25-40 games, give Campbell the rest he needs, play a platoon role if needed, and step in as the starter if Campbell falters or gets hurt.

The team has 4.7 mill in cap space to make additions throughout the season and also has 2 1sts and a 2nd in the 2022 draft.

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