Make that 2019. Gibson had the best GSAx in 18/19 (26.9 GSAx) with the Ducks finishing 24th in the league. He was elite in 2018/19.

Now run the stats for pre- and post-New Year's Eve. He fell off a cliff in the middle of the campaign. Probably injury related but since he's never really recovered his trade value should reflect the facts.

That's interesting. I think I'll have a look at the past 3 years to see what the splits are.

2018-19
Oct: 10 GP, .938
Nov: 12, .921
Dec: 12, .913 - suspect an injury occurred here
Jan: 9, .900
Feb: 3, .822 - another injury?
Mar: 11, .922
Apr: 1, .957

2019-20
Oct: 11 GP, .920
Nov: 10, .897
Dec: 9, .905
Jan: 9, .888
Feb: 9, .905
Mar: 3, .905

Good the first month only, and his workload seems pretty even throughout the season.

2020-21
Jan: 9 GP, .921
Feb: 8, .890
Mar: 7, .876
Apr: 9, .914
May: 2, .910

Similar pattern: good in the first month, fairly even workload throughout the season.

So he's a guy who starts hot and then is below average the rest of the year. What good is that to a team that's trying to win in the playoffs?

@TZ11
Here's the numbers for 4 years ago: top-shelf results all the way through. He's just not that guy anymore, despite holding onto the reputation.

https://www.nhl.com/player/john-gibson-8476434?stats=splits-r-nhl&season=20172018

exactly what im thinking. no premium assets sent to Anaheim here but still a nice package

Even after New Years eve in 2018/19 he wasn't only bad. He struggled in January, got injured in February, and played good in March and April. But overall he still had a very good season.

2020/21:
The workload may seem even, but in January games only started on the 14th. From January to early February he played 11 games in 3 weeks (8 games in a row) and Miller played one game. He played good overall (.919 SV%).

The only breaks he got in February were a back to back game break, another one because of an injury and Miller played once because Gibson played particularly bad in the game prior (February 22nd). That injury was basically the turning point last season.

After that injury he continued to struggle for a while (Lindholm and Manson were both injured but that obviously wasn’t the only reason) and had another injury in March (which made him miss 5 games). He recovered from that injury and played 1 game (.971 SV%) but then got scratched 3 games in a row (March 28th till April 2nd). That further screwed his confidence. Then he played 4 games in a row again and was relatively good in those games (4th-11th of April). The remaining 14 games where split evenly between Gibson (7) and Stolarz / Miller (7) and Gibson didn't really play full-time again but he played good overall.

(Lindholm played a single game between February 18th and the end of the season (one game between his two injuries). Manson played three games between January 20th and March 20th.)

I think we can agree on this: Gibson has struggled. He hasn’t been elite. This is not entirely his fault (injuries, team in front of him, etc.) but his game has fallen off. We know he has elite goaltending potential and we saw it a couple of years ago but he hasn’t been that good since 2019. (I personally think he can be that good again, but I assume you don’t.)

I don't know if he can recover or not. What I do know is that his trade value isn't nearly as high as most people on this site seem to think it is - he's a below average goalie locked into a high-dollar contract for many years.

And I recognize all your mitigating factors, but for some reason nobody like to accept the same with regards to Mikko Koskinen, especially at the beginning of this past season when he played 12 games in 24 nights while traveling thousands of miles through 4 time zones... outside that ridiculous few weeks, he has posted a .916 over the past 2 seasons combined (.910 including those 12 games), far better than Gibson's performance - and yet he's considered a cap dump because he's owed $4.5M for 1 year? It just doesn't add up.

I would say Gibson without the factors I named is better than Koskinen. But I agree Koskinen is very underrated. He isn't a Vezina level goalie or anything and he probably isn't worth $4.5M but he's not a bad goalie and he is far better than most make him out to be. And he shouldn't be considered a cap dump imo. I agree that Gibson's value isn't high but it would take an overpayment to trade for him anyways. The Ducks wouldn't want to trade him to the Oilers but if a team wants to trade for him, they'll have to overpay or Murray won't trade him.

Thanks for the discussion