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Poll - What is the best comp for Jack Hughes contract next year

Created by: NHLfan10506
Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 30, 2021
Published: Sep. 30, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
CREATEDYEARSCAP HIT
Hughes, Jack
3$7,000,000
Hughes, Jack
5$6,500,000
Hughes, Jack
8$8,500,000
Hughes, Jack
3$2,500,000
Trades
1.
NJD
  1. Mittelstadt, Casey
BUF
    The Mittelstadt special for those that continue to insist that jAcK hUgHeS iS a bUst

    Mittelstadt: 3 years at $2.5 million
    2.
    NJD
    1. Barzal, Mathew
    NYI
      Barzal or Point sized bridge deal:

      Barzal: 3 years x $7 million
      Point: 3 years x $6.75 million
      3.
      NJD
      1. Larkin, Dylan
      DET
        A Dylan Larkin walk 'em to UFA deal:

        Larkin: 5 years x $6.1 million
        4.
        NJD
        1. Draisaitl, Leon
        EDM
          A Drais-esque lock him down deal:

          Draisatl: 8 years x $8.5 million
          Buyouts
          Recapture Fees
          Buried
          DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
          2022
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the EDM
          Logo of the NYI
          Logo of the CBJ
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          2023
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          2024
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          Logo of the NJD
          ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
          8$81,500,000$81,833,333$0$0-$333,333
          Left WingCentreRight Wing
          Hughes, Jack
          $2,500,000$2,500,000
          Logo of the Buffalo Sabres
          Mittelstadt, Casey
          $2,500,000$2,500,000
          LW, C
          RFA - 2
          Hughes, Jack
          $7,000,000$7,000,000
          Logo of the New York Islanders
          Barzal, Mathew
          $7,000,000$7,000,000
          C, RW
          UFA - 1
          Hughes, Jack
          $6,500,000$6,500,000
          Logo of the Detroit Red Wings
          Larkin, Dylan
          $6,100,000$6,100,000
          C
          NTC
          UFA - 1
          Hughes, Jack
          $8,500,000$8,500,000
          Logo of the Edmonton Oilers
          Draisaitl, Leon
          $8,500,000$8,500,000
          C, LW
          M-NTC, NMC
          UFA - 3
          Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
          Taxi Squad
          Logo of the New Jersey Devils
          Hischier, Nico
          $7,250,000$7,250,000 ($6,125,000$6M$6,125,000$6M)
          C
          UFA - 5
          Logo of the New Jersey Devils
          Sharangovich, Yegor
          $2,000,000$2,000,000 ($875,000$875K$875,000$875K)
          C, LW, RW
          UFA - 1

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          Best comp for 2022 Jack Hughes contract
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          Oct. 1, 2021 at 12:48 p.m.
          #26
          Opie
          Opie
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          Quoting: Devil1122
          Either the Draisaitl or Barzal type contract


          Anything but walking him to UFA
          Oct. 1, 2021 at 12:55 p.m.
          #27
          Opie
          Opie
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          Quoting: NHLfan10506
          You are counting points accumulated in college vs Hughes' points in NHL?



          Possibly?
          There is a pretty good argument that he is better than Larkin right now, at age-20


          I'd prefer current Hughes over current Larkin walking into this season full stop. Revisit this discussion at season end, short of either being injured
          Oct. 1, 2021 at 2:27 p.m.
          #28
          CD282
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          Quoting: NHLfan10506
          Year 1 & 2 are done.
          Year 3: 75 GP, 22g, 40a, 62pts. Continued growth in game, bigger leadership role, Devils come close, but miss playoffs narrowly.


          For reference, Larkin scored 82, 16-47-63 [0.77 P/GP] before signing his deal, and was 242, 56-84-140 [0.58] for his career.
          Draisaitl scored 82, 29-48-77 [0.94] before signing his deal and was 191, 50-87-137 [0.72] for his career.
          Barzal scored 68, 19-41-60 [0.88] before signing his deal and was 234, 59-148-207 [0.88] for his career.
          Point scored 79, 41-51-92 [1.16] before signing his deal and was 229, 91-107-198 [0.86] for his career.

          If your numbers for Hughes hold true, he'll be 75, 22-40-62 [0.83] before signing and 192, 40-74-114 [0.59] for his career.

          Larkin appears to be his closest comp. The others are in a different bracket.

          In any case, your projections for Hughes are quite generous, so he likely isn't even at Larkin's level. You have him scoring more goals and assists in 75 games than he has in his entire 117-game NHL career so far. That's a heck of a breakout year.
          Oct. 1, 2021 at 2:34 p.m.
          #29
          NHLfan10506
          Thread Starter
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          Quoting: CD282
          For reference, Larkin scored 82, 16-47-63 [0.77 P/GP] before signing his deal, and was 242, 56-84-140 [0.58] for his career.
          Draisaitl scored 82, 29-48-77 [0.94] before signing his deal and was 191, 50-87-137 [0.72] for his career.
          Barzal scored 68, 19-41-60 [0.88] before signing his deal and was 234, 59-148-207 [0.88] for his career.
          Point scored 79, 41-51-92 [1.16] before signing his deal and was 229, 91-107-198 [0.86] for his career.

          If your numbers for Hughes hold true, he'll be 75, 22-40-62 [0.83] before signing and 192, 40-74-114 [0.59] for his career.

          Larkin appears to be his closest comp. The others are in a different bracket.

          In any case, your projections for Hughes are quite generous, so he likely isn't even at Larkin's level. You have him scoring more goals and assists in 75 games than he has in his entire 117-game NHL career so far. That's a heck of a breakout year.


          His analytics are fantastic.
          Especially for possession, zone entries, neutral zone turnovers.
          A 60-point season is not an outrageous prediction at all.
          Better teammates, no 10-month layoff…give him 75 games played and I’ll take the over.
          Oct. 1, 2021 at 2:52 p.m.
          #30
          CD282
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          Quoting: NHLfan10506
          His analytics are fantastic.
          Especially for possession, zone entries, neutral zone turnovers.
          A 60-point season is not an outrageous prediction at all.
          Better teammates, no 10-month layoff…give him 75 games played and I’ll take the over.


          I don't think predicting 62 points is outrageous, I used the word "generous". Very different meaning...

          His stats from earlier this year pro-rated to 75 games: 15 goals, 27 assists and 42 points. A 50% uptick in production is certainly possible, but it's a generous prediction.
          Oct. 1, 2021 at 3:51 p.m.
          #31
          NHLfan10506
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          Quoting: CD282
          I don't think predicting 62 points is outrageous, I used the word "generous". Very different meaning...

          His stats from earlier this year pro-rated to 75 games: 15 goals, 27 assists and 42 points. A 50% uptick in production is certainly possible, but it's a generous prediction.


          Considering his underlying numbers and all the negative externalities last season, a 50% uptick seems fair.
          And still lots of upside.
          I would be more surprised with a 40-pt season that a 70-pt season.
          Oct. 2, 2021 at 1:11 p.m.
          #32
          zackhendo
          VanFan12
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          Quoting: Devil1122
          Again, you're just looking at stats with no context. If you actually watched him play, you would see that Hughes was dominant offensively but struggled to put up points with meh linemates. Hughes was also one of the best players in the league in zone entries and was fantastic defensively...all while being a 19 year old. The points will come once he gets better linemates and once he gets older

          But if you want to care about stats so much, at 19 years old these were both of their points per game average
          Hughes: 0.45
          Larkin: 0.46


          0.45 pts/game is garbage though.... Like it's a fine number for a young player... but you're comparing him to Barzal, Draisaitl, Point and Petterson.
          Oct. 2, 2021 at 1:17 p.m.
          #33
          Devil
          Speak of the Devil
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          Quoting: zackhendo
          0.45 pts/game is garbage though.... Like it's a fine number for a young player... but you're comparing him to Barzal, Draisaitl, Point and Petterson.


          If you read it properly, I said I wanted Hughes contract to be a Draisaitl or Barzal type contract (3 years or 8 years), not a Larkin type contract. I never said anything about the AAVs
          0.45 ppg for a 19 year old is decent
          Oct. 2, 2021 at 7:34 p.m.
          #34
          NHLfan10506
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          Quoting: Devil1122
          If you read it properly, I said I wanted Hughes contract to be a Draisaitl or Barzal type contract (3 years or 8 years), not a Larkin type contract. I never said anything about the AAVs
          0.45 ppg for a 19 year old is decent

          0.55, I believe
          Devil liked this.
           
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