Formentons Play and Brady Hold Out causing the top six flip

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: NDoody

Team: 2021-22 Ottawa Senators

Initial Creation Date: Oct. 4, 2021

Published: Oct. 4, 2021

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

When Formenton played up with Batherson and Norris they all really seemed to click really well, and the overall speed of the line was something the coaches might need to give another look at.
The real test would be can Brady or Stutzle play the off-wing. I have seen some reporters and radio show suggesting that stuzle could do it and it wouldn't be too big of an adjustment for him. Could work out well if with Brady in front of the net and stu driving shots and chances.
I put Teirney in the C spot there only because I don't see DJ starting anyone else, but as the season goes on, I would have to think that Pinto progresses into that spot and then you have the potential for a very interesting line and mix of playing styles.

DJ also seems hard set to having Sanford - Paul - White as the third line but with C Brown mixed in there with Paul and White, you would actually have a very solid two-way third line with all three players having some offensive upside.

That leaves kinda a mess 4th line, Pinto can start here and get some reps, Watson stays around kinda like J Brown does to be a guardian tough guy for the younger players, and Sanford is basically an insurance vet player, but really I didn't like the move to bring him in, I would think it is better to have sokolov in there getting games and continuing to grow. He continues to grow playing on the RW his off-wing as he did all last year and all preseason, he could be a great asset at RW in the near future.

Branstrom seems to be winning himself a spot in the 3rd pairing but i wouldn't;t be surprised if DJ cares 7 D all season and swings them back and worth. While he does seem ready for the NHL, it might not be a bad idea for him to go to Belleville at least for part fo the season and play huge minutes with JDB and gain some chemistry with him, If the sens could start next season with Branstrom -JDB as the second pairing, that would be a huge win.

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Tkachuk, Brady		8	$8,500,000

Buyouts

Bobby Ryan: $3,583,333
Dion Phaneuf: $354,167

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$65,403,416	$0	$4,522,500	$16,096,584

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Formenton, Alex $747,500$747,500 ($107,500$108K) LW RFA - 1	Norris, Joshua $925,000$925,000 ($850,000$850K) C UFA - 1	Batherson, Drake $4,975,000$4,975,000 RW, LW UFA - 6
Tkachuk, Brady $8,500,000$8,500,000 LW UFA - 7	Tierney, Chris $3,500,000$3,500,000 C UFA - 1	Stützle, Tim $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) C UFA - 2
Paul, Nicholas $749,250$749,250 C, LW UFA - 1	White, Colin $4,750,000$4,750,000 C, RW UFA - 4	Brown, Connor $3,600,000$3,600,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Sanford, Zachary $2,000,000$2,000,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Pinto, Shane $925,000$925,000 ($600,000$600K) C RFA - 2	Watson, Austin $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Sokolov, Egor $818,333$818,333 ($15,000$15K) LW RFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chabot, Thomas $8,000,000$8,000,000 LD UFA - 7	Zub, Artem $2,500,000$2,500,000 RD UFA - 2	Murray, Matt $4,687,500$4,687,500 G M-NTC UFA - 3
Del Zotto, Michael $2,000,000$2,000,000 LD UFA - 2	Zaitsev, Nikita $4,500,000$4,500,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 3	Forsberg, Anton $900,000$900,000 G UFA - 1
Brännström, Erik $863,333$863,333 ($450,000$450K) LD/RD, LW RFA - 1	Brown, Joshua $1,200,000$1,200,000 RD UFA - 1
Mete, Victor $1,200,000$1,200,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Holden, Nick $1,700,000$1,700,000 LD UFA - 1

Oct. 4, 2021 at 1:02 p.m.

Green4D4

... We're a "Team"..

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 2,450

Likes: 1,157

Forms-Norris-Batherson clicks well because they all played together in Belleville and each scored 25... I would love for that line to work well because it has tremendous upside with speed, skill and a little nastiness to it.

As far as the 2nd line goes, Tierney has no business being in the top 6 let alone the top 9. He's still good at hockey, don't get me wrong, its just the legs seem to have fallen off a bit with no physical upside. He's also an offensive blackhole. That spot is basically Pinto's to lose.

Paul-White-Brown will be the the 'shutdown' line.

Sanford-Tierney/Kelly/Agozzino-Watson will be the checking line. Pinto, as stated before, is 2nd line center until he hits a wall or he gets hurt.

Defense: MDZ needs to never be on the ice with Zaitsev. It's either Mete or Bran or someone that can actually make a pass.

csick and NDoody liked this.

Oct. 4, 2021 at 1:05 p.m.

csick

KFTW

Joined: Jul. 2018

Posts: 44,002

Likes: 24,671

Switch Tierney and Pinto and it’s good

NDoody liked this.

Oct. 4, 2021 at 1:49 p.m.

Pinto

Bet On It

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 610

Likes: 230

For $8.5M, Tkachuk can go kick rocks. Trade him to a team that's falling apart and let them deal with his bratty family and that ridiculous overpay. Overpaying who is currently a $5M player (projecting to be ~$6.5M at his peak) that much more for such a long period of time will mark the end of this Senators' core before it even started.

Oct. 5, 2021 at 9:43 a.m.

NDoody

Thread Starter

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 1,668

Likes: 772

Quoting: csick

Switch Tierney and Pinto and it’s good

As I mentioned in the description, I think that is the way it should be, but all signs point to DJ having Teirney there at the start of the season at least.

Oct. 5, 2021 at 10:29 a.m.

NDoody

Thread Starter

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 1,668

Likes: 772

Quoting: Claebom

I put that in because the way things are going it may end up north of 8 mill per. While I agree that is higher than most would like, the fact is if you look at comparables and his stats along with the fact that outside of this hold out (which we know he is being pushed to do by his family and agent) he is Captain and leadership material, the guys all love him and he does motivate the team. So it isn't really isn't wrong of him to try and get what he can especially on an 8-year deal.

If you look at comparables ANDREI SVECHNIKOV has almost identical offensive numbers, and he got 7.75. Now Brady I would say doesn't have the offensive potential in the future, but Brady has been 2nd in the Whole League in hits the past two seasons and led the league in fights last year, so that also carries some value as well. He most likely is selling himself as a future Tom Wilson with better scoring.

Given all that I have always thought the same 8x8 contract that Chabot signed would be best, and it sets a line for all other players in the future when they have to sign a contract. I assume Stuztle will most likely prove he is worth more than Brady but too early to really tell.

Oct. 6, 2021 at 1:41 p.m.

Pinto

Bet On It

Joined: Jun. 2017

Posts: 610

Likes: 230

Quoting: NDoody

I put that in because the way things are going it may end up north of 8 mill per.

I 100% agree, it's trending towards a gross overpayment. I don't mean to pick on your post specifically, because you're probably right that he comes in at that amount. He just shouldn't as it's such an insane overpay that it's embarrassing as a Sens fan.

Quoting: NDoody

While I agree that is higher than most would like, the fact is if you look at comparables and his stats along with the fact that outside of this hold out (which we know he is being pushed to do by his family and agent) he is Captain and leadership material, the guys all love him and he does motivate the team.

His comparables place him ~$6.5M long-term, or $5.5M short-term.

Quoting: NDoody

If you look at comparables ANDREI SVECHNIKOV has almost identical offensive numbers, and he got 7.75.

Solely because of Svechnikov's slower first year in which he wasn't riding Mark Stone's elite play like Brady was. Since then, he's had 0.84 PPG to Brady's 0.64 PPG.

And just in case the follow-up argument is linemates (because it so frequently is), Svechnikov's top linemates in each year he's played have been: Martinook (0.30 PPG) and Wallmark (0.35 PPG) in 2018-19, Aho (0.97 PPG) and Staal (0.40 PPG) in 2019-20, and Aho (1.02 PPG) and Fast (0.41 PPG) in 2020-21. Brady's were: Stone (1.05 PPG) and White (0.58 PPG) in 2018-19, Pageau (0.67 PPG) and Brown (0.61 PPG) in 2019-20, and Norris (0.63 PPG) and Batherson (0.61 PPG) in 2020-21. Aho is definitely a stud, but the other linemate is always much worse than anything Tkachuk has had. Given Svechnikov is much better offensively and has a much higher ceiling, it's no wonder he got $7.75M. Brady, on the other hand, projects to be a 50-60 point 2LW, and that doesn't cost above $7M no matter what else he brings to the table.

Funnily enough, Tom Wilson is a great player to bring up as he is a 50-60 point player with all of the same intangibles and he makes $5.2M (signed at 24, thus buying more UFA years). Given Brady is younger and projects to be better faster, $6M is nearing a fair price.

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