Hypothetical Scenario - Discussion over Trade Values - CapFriendly

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
20	$81,500,000	$59,977,500	$0	$0	$21,522,500

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Gaudreau, Johnny $6,750,000$6,750,000 LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Monahan, Sean $6,375,000$6,375,000 C, LW, RW M-NTC UFA - 2	Dubé, Dillon $2,300,000$2,300,000 LW, RW, C RFA - 3
Coleman, Blake $4,900,000$4,900,000 RW, LW NTC UFA - 6	Backlund, Mikael $5,350,000$5,350,000 C M-NTC UFA - 3	Mangiapane, Andrew $2,425,000$2,425,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Lucic, Milan $5,250,000$5,250,000 LW, RW M-NTC, NMC UFA - 2	Richardson, Brad $800,000$800,000 C UFA - 1	Pitlick, Tyler $1,750,000$1,750,000 RW UFA - 1
Ritchie, Brett $900,000$900,000 RW UFA - 1	Lewis, Trevor $800,000$800,000 RW, C UFA - 1	Duehr, Walker $827,500$827,500 RW UFA - 2

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
	Andersson, Rasmus $4,550,000$4,550,000 RD UFA - 5	Markström, Jacob $6,000,000$6,000,000 G NMC UFA - 5
Zadorov, Nikita $3,750,000$3,750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1		Vladar, Daniel $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 2
Välimäki, Juuso $1,550,000$1,550,000 LD RFA - 2	Gudbranson, Erik $1,950,000$1,950,000 RD UFA - 1
Kylington, Oliver $750,000$750,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Stone, Michael $750,000$750,000 RD UFA - 1

Nov. 8, 2021 at 9:34 a.m.

#1

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Edited Nov. 8, 2021 at 9:44 a.m.

I dont know what you'd get excatly, but you'd need semi-equivalent replacements, both in position, production, salary:

Say Tkachuk to TOR for Marner: very different players, but does Marner's offense offset Tkachuk's "grit"
Lindholm and Hanifan to PHI for Farabee and Sanheim and a solid center prospect like Frost or Foerster
Tanev and a 2nd (?) to CGY for Brodie

If Im PHI: I offer RW Koneckny (60+ pts, young and signed long term at 5.5mil), LD Sanheim (young, 20+ minutes a night LD), center prospect Morgan Frost (now healthy and getting to game speed), defensive prospect Egor Zamula (great size and strength, just started 2nd season in AHL, looks like a bluechip) for Tkachuk and Hanifan.

Hanifan is better than Sanheim and Tkachuk is better than Koneckny, but the two high level prospects and maybe a 1st gets it done.

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Nov. 8, 2021 at 9:46 a.m.

#2

TraeYoung

Thread Starter

Trae Young

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Quoting: Hammerwise

I dont know what you'd get excatly, but you'd need semi-equivalent replacements, both in position, production, salary:

Say Tkachuk to TOR for Marner: very different players, but does Marner's offense offset Tkachuk's "grit"
Lindholm and Hanifan to PHI for Farabee and Sanheim and a solid center prospect like Frost or Foerster
Tanev and a 2nd (?) to CGY for Brodie

Yeah I think what makes this tough and part of why I’m asking it on the open forums is because these players, more so Tkachuk and Lindholm are quality assets, especially if they had salary retained for a contender.

Sometimes, it’s easier to ask what they’re worth in picks to get a value understanding there. So say Tanev is worth a 2nd, whether that’s true or not, then I know I can trade him for a 2nd or for a player that may also be worth that price. Tkachuk is interesting for me since he’d need to be resigned and most teams that’d want him couldn’t do say a 8x9.

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Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:02 a.m.

#3

FishAndChips

CambridgeAnalytics

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I would think Tanev is probably the first one to be moved in this situation due to his relatively high market value and low likelihood of being involved in the long-term picture for the franchise. He's been one of the most efficient defensive defensemen in the last two seasons on a team-friendly rate for his services, can play top-pairing minutes, on a reasonable deal for the next two years after this season, and his right-shot status would boost his trade value. The return would probably be a 1st rounder and a C-level prospect or a couple of mid-round picks attached to a B-level prospect to a team in need of a second pairing or first pairing d-man like the Flyers (has the prospect pool to make the former work and the only RHD they have under contract for next season on their active roster concurrently is Ryan Ellis).

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Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:09 a.m.

#4

Faulk_my_Dzingel

Smythe.over.Hart

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Much like the assets the Leafs have, they are worth more individually then as a package.
Elias Lindholm would fetch an incredible package. Imagine him with a team like the Avalanche.
Based off of last season, Tanev would fetch a solid package as well.
I just don't know about Hanafin... He reminds me of Kotkaniemi in that he is a real good player, but just can't seem to find his role.
Tkachuk I am not touching on as on this site you can propose a realistic trade and you will have people jumping all over you either way that he's not worth Zemgus Girgensons or he is worth Auston Matthews.

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Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:11 a.m.

#5

TraeYoung

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Trae Young

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Quoting: Captain_Levi

I would think Tanev is probably the first one to be moved in this situation due to his relatively high market value and low likelihood of being involved in the long-term picture for the franchise. He's been one of the most efficient defensive defensemen in the last two seasons on a team-friendly rate for his services, can play top-pairing minutes, on a reasonable deal for the next two years after this season, and his right-shot status would boost his trade value. The return would probably be a 1st rounder and a C-level prospect or a couple of mid-round picks attached to a B-level prospect to a team in need of a second pairing or first pairing d-man like the Flyers (has the prospect pool to make the former work and the only RHD they have under contract for next season on their active roster concurrently is Ryan Ellis).

How do you see that value changing if he had salary retained on his deal? Just curious, thanks for the reply

Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:14 a.m.

#6

Hammerwise

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Quoting: TraeYoung

Yeah I think what makes this tough and part of why I’m asking it on the open forums is because these players, more so Tkachuk and Lindholm are quality assets, especially if they had salary retained for a contender.

Sometimes, it’s easier to ask what they’re worth in picks to get a value understanding there. So say Tanev is worth a 2nd, whether that’s true or not, then I know I can trade him for a 2nd or for a player that may also be worth that price. Tkachuk is interesting for me since he’d need to be resigned and most teams that’d want him couldn’t do say a 8x9.

True, but equivalent players is easier than picks IMO.

Very hard to develop so many players at once and its difficult to see returns in trade for quality assets, and its no return for the fans to trade high level players now for futures 3 yrs down the line.

Hard to get equivalent, sometimes its just better fits or addressing multiple needs.

In the example above, tkachuk and hanifan would be the better of the two players, but they are all similar age and the key would be whether frost can fill a need a center and zamula could develop.

I would think that IF CGY moves any of those players: Hanifan is probably first and Tkachuk second, but Tanev and Lindholm are valuable assets on good contracts.

In seperate deals as mentioned above, marner and sanheim are not equivalent replacements, but the addition of say a Frost and Zamula (if they develop) builds a better team. Any of those CGY players are worth a lot in trade

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Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:17 a.m.

#7

TraeYoung

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Trae Young

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Quoting: faulkmydzingel

Much like the assets the Leafs have, they are worth more individually then as a package.
Elias Lindholm would fetch an incredible package. Imagine him with a team like the Avalanche.
Based off of last season, Tanev would fetch a solid package as well.
I just don't know about Hanafin... He reminds me of Kotkaniemi in that he is a real good player, but just can't seem to find his role.
Tkachuk I am not touching on as on this site you can propose a realistic trade and you will have people jumping all over you either way that he's not worth Zemgus Girgensons or he is worth Auston Matthews.

Yeah this website is incredibly stupid in its comment sections. That’s why I put that disclaimer at the end of the description.

If you don’t mind me asking your opinion, what do you think of these value ideas?
Lindholm - 1st, B+ prospect, late pick and/or low tier prospect
Tanev - B prospect, 2nd
Hanifin w/ salary retained- B- prospect, 2nd/3rd, depth NHLer
Tkachuk - 1st, 2nd, B+ prospect, NHLer

And I hesitate to put A prospects anywhere because if a prospect is that high than no team is realistically trading them most of the time. I also have no clue what I’m talking about, I’m just a broke college kid

Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:20 a.m.

#8

TraeYoung

Thread Starter

Trae Young

Joined: Jan. 2020

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Quoting: Hammerwise

True, but equivalent players is easier than picks IMO.

Very hard to develop so many players at once and its difficult to see returns in trade for quality assets, and its no return for the fans to trade high level players now for futures 3 yrs down the line.

Hard to get equivalent, sometimes its just better fits or addressing multiple needs.

In the example above, tkachuk and hanifan would be the better of the two players, but they are all similar age and the key would be whether frost can fill a need a center and zamula could develop.

I would think that IF CGY moves any of those players: Hanifan is probably first and Tkachuk second, but Tanev and Lindholm are valuable assets on good contracts.

In seperate deals as mentioned above, marner and sanheim are not equivalent replacements, but the addition of say a Frost and Zamula (if they develop) builds a better team. Any of those CGY players are worth a lot in trade

Good points all around. I think people tend to ignore fits and team trends on here as well. For example, as a Pens fan, I know that any deal involving these guys has to have salary going the other way. Calgary almost traded for Jason Zucker a few years ago and he fits their fast forechecking system. Just an example of how that works

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Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:26 a.m.

#9

Hammerwise

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Quoting: TraeYoung

Good points all around. I think people tend to ignore fits and team trends on here as well. For example, as a Pens fan, I know that any deal involving these guys has to have salary going the other way. Calgary almost traded for Jason Zucker a few years ago and he fits their fast forechecking system. Just an example of how that works

Yes definitely, but I think youre undervaluing most of these CGY players.

As another poster said, look at what Ristolinen got Buffalo. In draft picks estimate: Tanev and his good contract I think gets a 1st and a 2nd, Lindholm gets 2 1sts and a bit more, Hanifan gets a late 1st and 3rd and Tkachuk, even as an expensive RFA gets 3-4 1sts in a second.

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Nov. 8, 2021 at 10:50 a.m.

#10

TraeYoung

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Trae Young

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Quoting: Hammerwise

Yes definitely, but I think youre undervaluing most of these CGY players.

As another poster said, look at what Ristolinen got Buffalo. In draft picks estimate: Tanev and his good contract I think gets a 1st and a 2nd, Lindholm gets 2 1sts and a bit more, Hanifan gets a late 1st and 3rd and Tkachuk, even as an expensive RFA gets 3-4 1sts in a second.

I think you have to understand the current climate of the NHL, however. Obviously Jones, Ristolainen and OEL got high prices in their trades, however that was during a free agency in which teams were more desperate for a defenseman.

I think you also have to consider that the 2022 and 2023 draft classes are far superior to some of the last drafts we’ve seen. Also consider the flat cap and the teams that made those deals had the cap space to do so and now less teams have that luck

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Hypothetical Scenario - Discussion over Trade Values

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