i hope barron spends another year in the ahl. no need to rush him in with the d the avs have. i hope they target a big stay at home guy instead.

I agree, Barron could probably do with another year in the AHL to iron out his defensive play (i.e. things like gap control and man-marking in his zone to make the defensive side of the game slow down for him a bit).

That said, Barron on the 2nd pair may as well be Byram if he's healthy. Helleson also seems more NHL ready than Barron even though his upside isn't as high so I could envisage him making the roster before Barron. Putting Helleson straight in could be a nice carrot to get him signed out of college too, as he'll be just one year away from walking as a college free agent this offseason.

Really thorough breakdown!

I’m wondering if they go get a guy with term this TDL to help now and fill that 2RW or 3C spot moving forward. AJ Haefele brought up Tyler Toffoli. Friedman talked about Dvorak as a guy who could be dealt, even though he just got to Montreal.

i'd be ok with toffoli but i'm hoping for someone with size/physicality. not that impressed with dvorak. i think the price the habs paid for him was crazy and i don't think they'll want to significantly lower it from what they paid months ago.

Getting a 3C with term at the deadline would be ideal. I've suggested Faksa before, but reception was mixed. He's one of the most pure defensive centers in the league and would be a solid matchup option to have in the lineup at 3C behind Mackinnon and Newhook. At $3.25m he's also not prohibitively expensive in that 3C role, though there's a risk that he doesn't hit his best again.

I listened to that DNVR podcast too. AJ also pointed out re: Toffoli that he doesn't have the speed to play the style the Avs like, which I think would be a deal-breaker. We'd also be buying high on him which isn't Sakic's M.O.

If there was interest in Dvorak I suspect it could have happened last offseason, don't think there will be much interest this off-season unless options are really limited. Sakic has shown that he's willing to wait as long as it takes to get his guys and tends to get them when they're available, so the fact that he wasn't involved last offseason might suggest that he's not interested.

I could be wrong about this projection too, and maybe Sakic's plan is to bring in a proper 2C or top 6 forward like Hertl instead of spreading the wealth with a 3C/2RW, but doing that would almost certainly mean that one of Byram/Girard need to go by 2023. It surely also wouldn't happen before Mackinnon has been extended so as to not block too much cap.

I also wonder how much faith Sakic has in Jost being able to step up and filling that 3C spot long-term. He did ok with Nichuskin on his wing last year, and maybe Sakic is thinking that he could do ok again if we acquire a winger who can replicate some of what Nichuskin brings (eg. Lehkonen). If Sakic realizes that Jost isn't a 3C then I could envisage him being a piece that brings back a 2RW rental in the offseason, similar to how Zadorov brought back Saad.

If capspace is needed to secure the right targets in the offseason one would think that Compher is the easiest guy to move to make room. He should be fairly easy to move with just one year left, and might be how Sakic recoups some draft capital ahead of the draft. That said, the Avs have a lot of contracts to sort out this off-season, and moving Jost and/or Compher would create yet another hole in the roster that would need filling.

Going into the off-season this is how I'd look at the roster. You basically have 3 middle 6 positions to fill (assuming Nichuskin is signed). Compher would need to make room as he's a bit redundant given the emergence of LOC and NAK in the bottom 6 RW jobs. I'd also be open to moving Jost if Maltsev can hold down the 4C spot at some point this year.

Landeskog -- Mackinnon -- Rantanen
(Nichuskin) ---- Newhook --- XXXXX
XXXXXX ---------- XXXXXX ----- O'Connor
Maltsev ------------ Jost -------- Aube-Kubel/Compher

toffoli and dvorak make more sense for rangers or calgary.

Dvorak’s point totals aren’t great for what he’s making. But he’s also been on some bad teams without much offensive support, and he’s dealt with some injuries. I think the contract is risky with this year +3 more. I don’t love the idea of Dvorak for those reasons, but I would understand the thought process if they did go get him. The Avs have gone a good job finding buy-low guys recently and helped them elevate their game (Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Donskoi, Toews, etc.) so I hesitate to question the guys they target anymore.

I definitely don’t disagree about Toffoli’s style. It may not be a perfect fit. But he’s continued to have success everywhere he’s been so far in his career, playing in three different systems/environments in LA/VAN/MTL. At $4.25M for this year +2, I think the worst case is that he’s a slightly expensive 3rd liner who can play on the PP.

Unfortunately I think Jost’s opportunity to become the long term 3C has come and gone. He’s rock solid defensively, but I think they lack of ability to create offense was really apparent in the playoffs against Vegas. Having Newhook there this year has made a real difference with their depth scoring. I think Faksa is in a similar boat as Jost. Really good defensive center but not a guy that drives offense. They’ll probably have to make a decision on Jost when his contract expires. I would be in favor of giving Bowers a look as an inexpensive, high-end defensive 4C who can play up your lineup when needed, but isn’t a long-term 3C solution.

Nice put together, but I definitely think 2 of 3 Nichushkin, Burakovsky, or Kadri is back next season even if that means Compher or Jost is moved. COL has reached the point the 4th line needs to be guys making as little as possible, maybe that’s what finally forces them to roll a 4th line of Bowers, Maltsev and Kaut. It’s only a couple 100k but I think Sakic plays hardball with 4th line guys, Bowers is getting league minimum, NAK is getting under a $1M, just look at what Sakic did with Jost a couple of years ago. If Byram is healthy he’s in the top 4 and either Barron or Helleson slot into that 6th spot opposite EJ and the other gets pushed to the AHL.

I’ll put my 2 cents in on the Dvorak/Toffoli commentary. Dvorak is not good. He wasn’t particularly good in AZ and I thought MTL massively overpaid for a middle of the road 3C who was masquerading as a 2C in AZ, he’s somebody better off avoided. Toffoli is all about price. If the kooks that are CF MTL fans set the value for him forget it, but he would find a way to produce.

All in all solid job.

Speaking of Montreal…there’s no way Lehkonen gets them a 1st round pick, right? He’s a fine player, but he’s a career 25-30 point guy who’s pacing slightly ahead of that this year. He is RFA but only for one more year and has arb rights.

I agree I wouldn’t send a 1st for him. Never had 20 goals, doesn’t play center, he is going to get a Compher type contract. Would you want to be on the hook for 3 or 4 years of Compher type money on a guy that doesn’t play center and doesn’t score 35+pts? I wouldn’t. MTL fans on here would have been happy with a 2nd rd pick a month ago but a reporter writes Lehkonen could be this years Coleman with no context and now you have the Price is worth 4 1st crowd thinking a 3rd line winger that has never scored 20 goals or more than 33pts is worth a top prospect and a 1st.