It’s after that that will be the issue. Once those RFAs need new contracts the year after @xspyrit and I had to bridge JBD and Pinto.

WORST TRADE EVER!

If you guys could bring back Alfredsson that would be pretty awesome

Alfie or Stone in that 2RW spot would be so perfect

Capitals would like to have Murray for free

According to the analytics he’s a top 5 goalie this year in the league

I want him even more now

The metric xGSA may look strange but it's quite simple. The basic formula of expected goals against (xGA) minus actual goals against (GA) derives the value of xGSA. In other words, how many saves did a goalie make above or below what would be expected of him based on the quality of the shots?

You may know that save percentage (Sv%) is more helpful a measure than goals against average (GAA). Think of xGSA as the next level of stat, one that is much better than just Sv%.

Another aspect to consider about this formula is that since it contains xGA, it focuses more on goalie performance than on the defence playing in front of him.

Okay, now that the primer is out of the way, let's look at the numbers themselves, specifically the Ottawa Senators' goalies.

Hurray for Murray and the Force of Forsberg

Here are the Sens' goalie xGSA with ranking (5v5; 18 starts or greater):

Murray +0.61; rank 5th of 48 (18 games played)
Forsberg +0.15; rank 20th of 48 (24 games played)
(For the record, Gustavsson, with 13 games played, has a xGSA of -0.14)


Matt Murray is a top 5 goalie in the NHL this season. And the tandem of Murray and Forsberg is one of the top pairings and clearly 1st among tandems which more or less evenly split the workload.

Murray's Comeback After Belleville

As we all know, Matt Murray was sent down to work on his game. He was recalled on Dec. 28th. His first game back was against TOR, and allowed 6 GA. Let's scrap that one and call it a mulligan. His next game was on Jan 13 v. Calgary. Since that date, he's played in 12 games. Here are revised top five xGSA/60 at 5v5 numbers.

Shesterkin (NYR) +1.01
Husso (STL) +0.99
Murray (OTT) +0.87
Andersen (CAR) +0.67
Kuemper (COL) +0.63

Murray's performance since returning from Belleville is most impressive. An xGSA of +0.87 over a season's worth of work would put any goalie in the Vezina conversation. He's clearly been the most improved Ottawa Senator and the best player in the new calendar year. Anton Forsberg has regressed, however, with an xGSA of -0.08, during his most recent 14 games played.

Now, just imagine that we see this Matt Murray from the start of next season. The Ottawa Senators would play their way into a top 3 position in the Atlantic Division.

[Sources: Natural Stat Trick (had to manually calculate xGSA, but this site allowed me to filter the date range to split Murray's season into two phases); Moneypuck.]

Very well said and well put. He deserves that contract. People say it’s crazy to trade a first for him. I’m willing to give up Sammy and a first. He is worth it. You have Twitter? I need your help with something. Also please get hired by a team

I gave u my IG. Does your mom still have access?

Yes.

So u want a Twitter ? 😅 I don’t have one rn

It’s ok. Just let me know when you get one. I just need advice for gming

Oh ok

Not gaming. Gming

I didn't read through the comments yet, so if this has beenm mentioned, sorry for adding on.

I don't think Boucher will be ready when 23/24 starts, but Greig might be, and Jarventie should be. Sokolov is close now.

I was just using them as placeholders just for salary

BTW, check Murray's numbers since Jan 25th
8 games 3-4-1
.949 SV%
1.77 GAA

Not even his best stretch as a Sens goalie

April 14th to Oct 23 (Kreider knee to the head game)
7 games 3-2-0
.949 SV%
1.44 GAA

unless Stu goes on a mad scoring spree for the rest of the season and next season, he aint getting anywhere close to 8M/Year and that will not happen as long as smith is HC of the sens.

He will next year when we acquire a top 6F to play with him

I think the forward aquatition for next year would be Andrei Kuzmenko if the Sens are able to sign him because he would be a low risk high reward player that could mesh really well with a per say Sokolov (shoter/next front) Stutzle (everything) and Kuzmenko (everything.) He also wouldn't be eating out of Melnyks wallet like Forsberg or Fiala would be. He will cost quite a bit though after his first year if everything goes well. Also I think that the Sens try and get Nick Paul signed at all cost because he will be a game breaker in the playoffs.

I'm not worried about the Sens being stuck against the NHL cap (that will start rising again). I worry about Melnyk's internal cap.

Let's re-visit this summer after we know what kind of contract they give to Norris, Formenton and Brannstrom. And maybe some of Paul, Brown and Zub