Leafs lose in the first round

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: ChefBoyardee

Team: 2022-23 Toronto Maple Leafs

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 28, 2022

Published: Mar. 28, 2022

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Let me start off by saying I don't see this as realistic, but any retool after another disastrous run will look unrealistic until it happens. This also only works if Philly plans on making another run, which it seems like that's the case. I see this as a fair trade off between Philly and Toronto, as Philly gets two years of a better forward and a worse defenceman at a reduced cap hit, for a cheaper forward at a slightly longer cap hit with a better defenceman on an expiring deal. The retention is just to make the Muzzin contract look bearable and maybe even good, but his NTC would need to be waived, which I also see as very unlikely. Arizona is an obvious location for Mrazek, and with some more assets included, leafs get a good middle 6 player back. I could see more assets going towards Arizona, let me know what you guys think but based on trends I thought this made sense. Joey joins his brother and the leafs get an asset back from the disappointing trade, while Duszak gets his fresh start. Let me know what you guys think.

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Knies, Matthew		3	$925,000
Rindell, Axel		2	$925,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Sandin, Rasmus	2	$2,200,000
Liljegren, Timothy	2	$1,750,000
Kase, Ondrej	3	$2,000,000
Crouse, Lawson	3	$3,500,000
Scott, Ian	2	$850,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Spezza, Jason		1	$750,000
Campbell, Jack		2	$2,500,000

Trades

ARI

Engvall, Pierre [RFA Rights]
Hirvonen, Roni [Reserve List]
Mrázek, Petr
2022 1st round pick (TOR)
2023 4th round pick (TOR)

TOR

Future considerations

BUF

Duszak, Joseph [RFA Rights]

TOR

2022 4th round pick (LAK)

LAK

Anderson, Joey

Retained Salary Transactions

Jake Muzzin: $2,000,000 (35.56%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2022
2023
2024

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$82,500,000	$82,361,584	$212,500	$0	$138,416

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Bunting, Michael $950,000$950,000 LW UFA - 1	Matthews, Auston $11,640,250$11,640,250 C UFA - 2	Marner, Mitchell $10,903,000$10,903,000 RW UFA - 3
Kerfoot, Alexander $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, C, RW M-NTC UFA - 1	Tavares, John $11,000,000$11,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 3	Konecny, Travis $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 3
Crouse, Lawson $3,500,000$3,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 5	Kämpf, David $1,500,000$1,500,000 C UFA - 1	Kase, Ondrej $2,000,000$2,000,000 RW UFA - 1
Robertson, Nicholas $796,667$796,667 LW, RW RFA - 2	Steeves, Alex $834,167$834,167 LW, RW RFA - 2	Spezza, Jason $750,000$750,000 C, RW UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Rielly, Morgan $7,500,000$7,500,000 LD NMC UFA - 8	Holl, Justin $2,000,000$2,000,000 RD M-NTC UFA - 1	Campbell, Jack $2,500,000$2,500,000 G UFA - 5
Brodie, TJ $5,000,000$5,000,000 LD/RD NTC UFA - 2	Sandin, Rasmus $2,200,000$2,200,000 LD UFA - 2	Källgren, Erik $750,000$750,000 G UFA - 1
	Liljegren, Timothy $1,750,000$1,750,000 RD RFA - 2
Sanheim, Travis $4,675,000$4,675,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Simmonds, Wayne $900,000$900,000 RW, LW M-NTC UFA - 1

Mar. 28, 2022 at 9:30 a.m.

palhal

LongtimeLeafsufferer

Joined: Jul. 2015

Posts: 59,765

Likes: 22,797

Muzzin doesn't waive for Philly. So the Leafs lose in the first round, and then you resign the goalie who likely the losing the goalie in the first round.
Don't know why you say it was a disappointing trade acquiring Joey Anderson....Leafs needed the cap space and were able to offload 2.3m Johnsson. Sorry Anderson isn't an NHLer and can gifted to LA.

OldNYIfan liked this.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 9:35 a.m.

ChefBoyardee

Thread Starter

Chef

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 60

Likes: 9

Quoting: palhal

I know like I said I highly doubt Muzzin waives. Campbell has upside, and a first round loss against a good opponent doesn't mean the goalie played poorly, such as Campbell last year. Leafs could of easily of got a second round pick, Joey Anderson was a bit of a gamble or bet and it didn't payoff, at least not yet but point is his value is less than a second. He has been an NHLer however and a fourth is a fair return I think most would agree.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 11:43 a.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,497

Likes: 25,387

Josh Anderson is 23 years old, is therefore in his D+6 season, and has played all of 57 games in the NHL, including only 5 in the last two seasons with Toronto, so the fact that "he has been an NHLer" cuts against him, not for him. He has no particular size, hasn't been an especially prolific scorer in the AHL, and hasn't been able to earn a spot over the much older Wayne Simmonds and Jason Spezza. Compare him to Brendan Lemieux, for whom Los Angeles paid a fourth, and Nic DesLauriers, for whom Anaheim paid a fourth and Minnesota just paid a third, and you should change your mind about Anderson being worth a fourth. My friend @palhal is right -- we might give Toronto a seventh for him and send him to Ontario (the one in California), but he's not making our NHL squad, and I doubt he would make anyone else's.

gretzkyghosts and palhal liked this.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 12:12 p.m.

ChefBoyardee

Thread Starter

Chef

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 60

Likes: 9

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Josh Anderson is 23 years old, is therefore in his D+6 season, and has played all of 57 games in the NHL, including only 5 in the last two seasons with Toronto, so the fact that "he has been an NHLer" cuts against him, not for him. He has no particular size, hasn't been an especially prolific scorer in the AHL, and hasn't been able to earn a spot over the much older Wayne Simmonds and Jason Spezza. Compare him to Brendan Lemieux, for whom Los Angeles paid a fourth, and Nic DesLauriers, for whom Anaheim paid a fourth and Minnesota just paid a third, and you should change your mind about Anderson being worth a fourth. My friend palhal is right -- we might give Toronto a seventh for him and send him to Ontario (the one in California), but he's not making our NHL squad, and I doubt he would make anyone else's.

23 is still a young age, especially with the development of later draft picks. Anderson is a casualty of offensive depth and the unwillingness to scratch veterans by the Org. If anything, I say your point about DesLauriers and Lemieux work in favour of Anderson's value, as both are low production players and have less potential upside than Anderson.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 12:18 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,497

Likes: 25,387

Quoting: ChefBoyardee

If you think that a kid who has had 6 seasons to prove himself and hasn't still has upside, then you really are looking at the world through rose-colored glasses. The only guy I can think of who has had that kind of career arc is your own Michael Bunting.

gretzkyghosts liked this.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 12:21 p.m.

ChefBoyardee

Thread Starter

Chef

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 60

Likes: 9

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Countless players continue their development well into their careers. Jake Muzzin is one, who spent his first five seasons outside of the NHL and half of his sixth in the AHL. I could find more if you want but my point is that 23 is still a very young age.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 12:41 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,497

Likes: 25,387

Edited Mar. 28, 2022 at 1:03 p.m.. Reason: corrected typo

Quoting: ChefBoyardee

Now you're comparing the development times of forwards and defensemen as if they are similar?!?!? That's even worse than saying that the reason why Lemieux and DesLauriers returned only fourths is that they had little potential upside. Third- and fourth-liners don't have their value because they have upside, their value is in what talents they already possess. My point is that Anderson hasn't shown that he has even third-line ability.

You think that Anderson has significant value based on nothing more than a hope and a prayer. GMs don't make decisions on that basis. Remember Mikko Lehtonen? He supposedly had great potential too -- a leading scorer in the KHL, as I recall.

Taking flyers is for guys at the race track, not the hockey rink.

gretzkyghosts liked this.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 3:21 p.m.

ChefBoyardee

Thread Starter

Chef

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 60

Likes: 9

Quoting: OldNYIfan

Now your comparing the KHL-NHL transition at the AHL-NHL transition. If Deslauriers if an NHLer then why wouldn't Anderson be considered one as well? produced at roughly the same rate in the NHL, DesLauriers spent more than 6 years developing before his NHL debut. Anderson doesn't have the chance to show his ability due to depth in the Leafs Org, but look what he did with consistent time in NJ.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,497

Likes: 25,387

Quoting: ChefBoyardee

If Deslauriers if an NHLer then why wouldn't Anderson be considered one as well?

Well, because DesLauriers has played 490 games in the NHL, that's why, and so it's not just my opinion, whereas you are probably close to the only person reading this who thinks that Anderson is.

490 games over 9 seasons is a little more than 54 games per season. Anderson has a total of 57 games played over 4 seasons, not one. That's the difference between them.

The fact that you keep bringing up the excuse that "Anderson doesn't have the chance to show his ability" should be a red flag to you. Making excuses for a player is admitting that you expect him to do better than he has shown. That in turn forces the conclusion that the team taking him on is taking on a chance, not an asset. A team doesn't pay a premium for the "privilege" of taking a gamble.

Anderson has 35 points (21 goals, 14 assists) in 48 games on the Marlies. Martin Frk, who is 28 years old, has 33 goals and 29 assists in the same number of games playing for the Ontario Reign. Whicih of the two Is worth a fourth-round draft pick?

gretzkyghosts liked this.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 3:46 p.m.

#10

Xertalz

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 1,071

Likes: 445

Big fan of Nylander but that's too much to give up

Mar. 28, 2022 at 3:57 p.m.

#11

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,497

Likes: 25,387

Quoting: ChefBoyardee

Anderson doesn't have the chance to show his ability due to depth in the Leafs Org, but look what he did with consistent time in NJ.

You call 7 points in 34 games and 6 points in 18 games something to look at?

Again, let's compare him to Martin Frk:

Frk: 124 games in the NHL, 20 goals, 21 assists = 41 points
Anderson: 57 games in the NHL (roughly half of Frk's time), 8 goals, 5 assists = 13 points (i.e., roughly one third of Frk's production)

gretzkyghosts liked this.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 6:51 p.m.

#12

ChefBoyardee

Thread Starter

Chef

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 60

Likes: 9

Quoting: OldNYIfan

a third of his production in less than half the games and 5 years younger. Not a fair comparison at all.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 7:01 p.m.

#13

OldNYIfan

Once a Kings Fan Too

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 40,497

Likes: 25,387

Quoting: ChefBoyardee

a third of his production in less than half the games and 5 years younger. Not a fair comparison at all.

Oh, so now, being five years older is an unfair advantage?

Look, it's so evident from your refusal to look disinterestedly at the figures, all of which go one way, that your mind is so closed that not even Kyle Dubas calling you up and telling you that you're wrong is going to change it, so let's just agree to disagree.

Mar. 28, 2022 at 7:08 p.m.

#14

ChefBoyardee

Thread Starter

Chef

Joined: Aug. 2019

Posts: 60

Likes: 9

Quoting: OldNYIfan

It literally is an unfair advantage... Its called player development and its the reason why Matthews didn't put up 60 in his rookie season, or why Crosby didn't win the hart out of the gate. The problem is not me ignoring the statistics, its you misusing them.

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