K, so it's also fact that Veleno has the same production as Tage did at that point in his career... arguing semantics doesn't increase the value of Tage nor decrease the value of Veleno. And your hypothetical trade in which hypothetical people laughed at the value is a weak retort.

I posted these players professional stats for comparison, maybe give that a try. I also presented a real life trade involving more productive player that returned less. These are also facts. A little research wouldn't hurt your argument and it might help fix your bias opinion.

I don't understand your first point. I agree, veleno is at the same point Tage was last year, no dispute. But that doesn't increase Veleno's value, nor does it decrease Tage's, especially since he's a totally different player now. You can't really argue that Veleno's production now being the same as Tage's was indicates a high value player because tage wasn't a high value player a year ago and his meteoric rise isn't exactly something that is often replicated.

But since you aske so nicely , here are some "professional stats" (whatever that means lol)

Tage had 38 goals this past season. Of those 38, which ranked him 19th in the NHL, 26 came at even strength, tied with some guys named Mitch Marner and Steven Stamkos, and one ahead of some other guys named Nathan Mackinnon and Dylan Larkin. I have no idea who these people are, but Im sure you will inform me through rigorous analysis, that they also are probably not worth the price paid above, so ill move on.

Tage ranked 85th in Goals Above Replacement with 12.2 and 43rd in the NHL in expected goals above replacement with 16.3. According to evolvingwild's player cards, Tage's offensive output puts him in the 94th percentile for this past season. However, just cause he's up there doesn't mean he's worth the treasure chest of assets offered up so I'll look into some of their stats

Filip Zadina had 10 goals this past year, of those 10 goals, 6 came at even strength. Veleno had 8 goals and all of them came at even strength, very impressive. That ties him with noted goal scorer Adam Boqvist.

Zadina and Veleno posted a goals above replacement of -1.1 and -2.7 respectively. This ranks them 734th, next to Casey Fitzgerald and Hudson Fasching and 868th, next to Andrew Ladd and Joel Armia, respectively. Their expected goals above replacement was -0.1 and -2.3 respectively. This ranked veleno 842nd, next greg mckagg and joel edmunson, and Zadina 630th, next to Fred Claesson and Chase Priskie

Zadina's player card has him in the 39th percentile offensively, while Veleno is in the 5th percentile. Now clearly, this is an illustration of two players must carry immense trade value, so the 8th overall pick must make it completely lopsided. The average XGAR for 8th overall picks selected from 2010-2018 over the last 3 seasons is 5.175, so yeah pretty close to the 16.3 that Tage posted this year.

Im gunna abandon the sarcasm for a sec cause its exhausting, even accounting for my bias, this trade is at best an insane gamble for the Sabres. You can ask any of the draft gurus who have access to the private data that you and I wouldn't, all of them would tell you that historically, players with Veleno and Zadina's outputs at this point don't become impact players. Yes, I know Tage was very bad last year as you like to point out but as I have pointed out repeatedly, thats hardly an indication that Veleno or Zadina will turn into stars, since not even Tage could have predicted that a move to centre would make him this good.

Trade value is judged at the time of the deal, not in hindsight. Just like I would maintain the blues hosed the Sabres in the o'reilly deal no matter what tage does now (at the time there is no way he had this much trade value), I would tell you that this is a home run for the Wings. I hope the research can help you understand where I am coming from. As I mentioned way before, I can completely understand the wings not wanting to deal for tage just cause they are not in a position to do so yet, but calling this a trade in which they get ripped off is quite the take. There's no doubt in my mind Yzerman would send Kevyn Adams a fruit basket and several business school brochures shortly after accepting the deal.

A much better argument! Granted the sarcasm makes it seem like you're taking it personally, I wasn't trying to offend, I was just presenting my perspective and trying to understand yours. That said, I still think it's an overpayment. Advanced stats definitely help your side of the argument though, so I'll concede that it's closer than I was giving credit. People will always think the team getting the better player right now won the trade, so there's another bias. There's countless examples for both sides of that coin, where the team getting the better player loses or wins the trade.

If we only look at last season, I'd agree Tage is the best player in the deal. The problem with that is it's their future which teams trading for, and we only have their professional stats (their stats playing professional hockey) to help characterize how they might pan out. When you consider the whole career, I think it's brash to say that any of the players in this trade replicate his output last season. I think it would be a safer bet to say none of them hit that, which is why I think having 3 first round talents (who were all identified as such by the draft gurus you referred to) is much better than 1. You seem pretty confident betting on the player with one really good season *cough* Jeff Skinner *cough*

I definitely appreciate the advanced stats though, I don't even know where to find that stuff. I just get on here occasionally to make my themed teams

Here we go now, please do not get mad at me.
My son hates bananas, no matter how many times I would explain they taste great, they are used as a desert fruit (banana splits!).
So if @Stadel (nor I) does not like it sarcasm and insults will not change his POV.
You may both be correct that this is a huge overpay, it certainly appears to be, two former first round picks and the 8th over all sure seems to be a lot.
So I have a question, @LikeABoss why did you make this offer if you think it was an overpay?

Let me shed some light on Tage.
First, he was ready to break out three years ago and was the last cut at the beginning of the season.
He did really well in Rochester and earned a call up only to be hurt in his first game then missed the balance of the season.
Second, last season Krueger proved to be a terrible HC.
Many players suffered their worse seasons in the NHL playing his system and the team did very poorly.
Third, Big players take longer to develop (think Chara), I am not surprised that he finally had a break out year.
It should have started two years ago, but injury and poor coaching delayed that.
It is more likely Buffalo will trade three pieces to get a top player than to move their top player for three pieces.
I hope this can end this discussion.

I would not make this trade either.
Neither Zadina nor Veleno appear to be top line players.
Even if they could become decent second line players, Buffalo has too many of them and Thompson, Skinner, Olofsson and Tuch currently are their only top line players.

Bobby Brink had an amazing year. I would love to add him to our prospect pool. Otherwise, Robert Bortuzzo? I don't think he goes by Bob, but we could call him Bobby Bortuzzo.

LOL, I like it, end the discussion by asking direct questions

I like to see what people think of the random teams I put together, mostly what Wings fans think. Looking through other posts, it seems like the same trade(s) gets recycled over and over again, I try to go off the map. It really boils down to a good team name. I come up with one or maybe two players that I center the name around, then I just move pieces to fill out a 23 man roster.

More specific to this trade, I needed to move 2 in order to add 2 after bringing Soderblom and Berggren up for their NHL debut. I figured Veleno and Z aren't "big boys", so I kicked em to the curb. I didn't think much about the value until folks started posting their opinions. To be honest I usually overpay just to avoid fans of the other team making derogatory posts.



OMG you genius! I can't believe I didn't think of looking for any Roberts. Bobby Bortuzzo is a killer name, and he's 6'4"!!! He would fit the theme perfectly

In an effort to keep it going: @Stadel

Dylan Cozens + Peyton Krebs + Buffalo's 2022 1st for Troy Terry is a no brainer for Buffalo then? Seems like a pretty similar deal to me...

I mean cozens has a way better GAR/XGAR than either of the two guys you had here so no. If you swap him for someone similar in terms of analytics, like mittelstadt, then yeah I'd do it. Krebs sucks lol

Edit: Terry's sick I think he'd do really well under Granato