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Overly Optimistic

Created by: rf9
Team: 2022-23 Ottawa Senators
Initial Creation Date: Jun. 26, 2022
Published: Jun. 26, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,400,000
3$2,500,000
3$2,600,000
8$7,500,000
1$950,000
3$3,500,000
Trades
1.
OTT
  1. Strome, Dylan [RFA Rights]
  2. 2023 5th round pick (CHI)
CHI
  1. Ostapchuk, Zack
  2. 2022 2nd round pick (TBL)
  3. 2023 3rd round pick (OTT)
2.
OTT
  1. 2024 7th round pick (ANA)
Additional Details:
Anywhere
ANA
  1. Murray, Matt
Additional Details:
Sens look to move murray if he is on the LTIR giving some teams much needed cap space, if not sens look to buy him out.
3.
ARI
  1. Brännström, Erik
  2. Formenton, Alex
  3. Sokolov, Egor
  4. Zaitsev, Nikita
  5. 2022 1st round pick (OTT)
  6. 2022 4th round pick (OTT)
Additional Details:
Would like the sens to make a serious proposal on chychrun. I personally feel like the hole on the right side on D needs to be addressed before top 6 winger. Sokolov is a sweetener for taking on Zaitsev and all the headaches that come along with him
4.
MTL
  1. Boucher, Tyler
  2. White, Colin ($1,750,000 retained)
Buyouts
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the BOS
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the WPG
Logo of the BOS
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the NYI
2023
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the CHI
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the NSH
2024
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the TBL
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the OTT
Logo of the ANA
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
23$82,500,000$71,264,881$0$4,025,000$11,235,119
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$8,205,714$8,205,714
LW
UFA - 6
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$7,500,000$7,500,000
C
UFA - 8
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,600,000$2,600,000
LW, RW
UFA - 4
$3,500,000$3,500,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$2,500,000$2M)
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$4,975,000$4,975,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Montreal Canadiens
$5,500,000$5,500,000
LW, RW
M-NTC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$600,000$600K)
C
RFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$3,600,000$3,600,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$762,500$762,500
LW
RFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$821,667$821,667
C, RW
RFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,500,000$1,500,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$950,000$950,000
C
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$950,000$950,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$8,000,000$8,000,000
LD
UFA - 6
Logo of the Arizona Coyotes
$4,600,000$4,600,000
LD/RD
UFA - 3
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,750,000$2,750,000
G
UFA - 3
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$925,000$925K)
LD
UFA - 2
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$2,500,000$2,500,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$787,500$787,500
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$750,000$750,000
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$3,000,000$3,000,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Ottawa Senators
$1,300,000$1,300,000
LD
M-NTC
UFA - 1

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Jun. 26, 2022 at 7:43 a.m.
#1
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I know sens management is high on boucher but i am not, that is why he is a sweetener in the white trade.
Jun. 26, 2022 at 8:00 a.m.
#2
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If Ottawa offers that package to Arizona I don't know how they pass. Even with Zaitsev added they have to take it.
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Jun. 26, 2022 at 8:46 a.m.
#3
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I know Montreal was interested in White at the deadline but now there are a couple of obstacles 1. We only have 2 mil ish cap space and are needing to resign Pitlick and Romanov. 2. We won the 1st OVA pick and are most likely frafting Wright. So we really don't have any more need for white.
Jun. 26, 2022 at 9:03 a.m.
#4
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Regardless of your opinion on Boucher, that White deal is beyond awful for Ottawa. Ottawa is retaining double what the cap hit on White's buyout would be, taking back a bad contract and giving up a prospect. Ottawa is getting hosed. I'd be open to retaining salary on the White deal, but if they're retaining up to that 875K or above and not receiving something good in return why should they bother? Just buy him out.

I remember reading that Dylan Strome might not even recieve a qualifying offer. If that's the case he's not worth a thing in a trade, just wait til he's non tendered and make an offer in free agency. Personally not a believer in Strome. He'd definitely be an improvement to the forward group, but definitely not one I'd move assets for. Getting him for free as a FA is a different story.
Jun. 26, 2022 at 9:25 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: Claesson4Norris
Regardless of your opinion on Boucher, that White deal is beyond awful for Ottawa. Ottawa is retaining double what the cap hit on White's buyout would be, taking back a bad contract and giving up a prospect. Ottawa is getting hosed. I'd be open to retaining salary on the White deal, but if they're retaining up to that 875K or above and not receiving something good in return why should they bother? Just buy him out.

I remember reading that Dylan Strome might not even recieve a qualifying offer. If that's the case he's not worth a thing in a trade, just wait til he's non tendered and make an offer in free agency. Personally not a believer in Strome. He'd definitely be an improvement to the forward group, but definitely not one I'd move assets for. Getting him for free as a FA is a different story.

When i said i wasn’t high on boucher, i meant i’m still mad that the sens drafting him at 10, and would move him for 10 chris tierneys out of spite
Jun. 26, 2022 at 11:09 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: Claesson4Norris
Regardless of your opinion on Boucher, that White deal is beyond awful for Ottawa. Ottawa is retaining double what the cap hit on White's buyout would be, taking back a bad contract and giving up a prospect. Ottawa is getting hosed. I'd be open to retaining salary on the White deal, but if they're retaining up to that 875K or above and not receiving something good in return why should they bother? Just buy him out.

I remember reading that Dylan Strome might not even recieve a qualifying offer. If that's the case he's not worth a thing in a trade, just wait til he's non tendered and make an offer in free agency. Personally not a believer in Strome. He'd definitely be an improvement to the forward group, but definitely not one I'd move assets for. Getting him for free as a FA is a different story.


rofl if hawks wont qualify him after scoring 22 goals 48 points in 70 ish games, his QO is 3.6M i believe that means there is something major behind the scenes, OTT should not even pick up the phone if he calls, also career year, never sign (UFA) or trade for players after a major career year
Jun. 26, 2022 at 11:10 a.m.
#7
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tremendous overpay for Jakob, OTT passes
Jun. 26, 2022 at 4:01 p.m.
#8
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None of this happen. Signings are good but I don't think (and hope) they re-sign Gaudette. He's not needed and he's bad defensively

1) With Ostapchuk coming out party in the WHL playoffs (at just 18 years old!), I doubt the Sens would trade him for Dylan Strome. So forget adding a 2nd + 3rd, huge overpay. Keep in mind that Ostapchuk is now more worthy of that top-10 pick than Boucher, like not even close.

2) I doubt Murray is moved this season. I also can't see them buying him out as it's completely useless (very small savings spread over 4 years)

3) Remove Formenton and I would do it but I'm not giving the 7th OA pick AND Formenton, plsu some other good pieces on top of it

4) I would much rather have White than Drouin if White is paid 3.0 AAV but the thing is Drouin contract expires... All that being said, it would be much smarter to just buy out White instead of sacrificing the 10th OA pick from last season. Like Claesson4Norris said, the retention here is higher than the buyout

Quoting: rf9
I know sens management is high on boucher but i am not, that is why he is a sweetener in the white trade.


Yeah but this won't happen even if they were not high on him at all anymore. The pick is way too recent and teams don't declare a LOSS that fast. They will give time to Boucher to prove anybody that they made the right choice, or at least a decent one. If not, it will go down as a loss or end up like Logan Brown
Jun. 26, 2022 at 4:56 p.m.
#9
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Quoting: Xspyrit
None of this happen. Signings are good but I don't think (and hope) they re-sign Gaudette. He's not needed and he's bad defensively

1) With Ostapchuk coming out party in the WHL playoffs (at just 18 years old!), I doubt the Sens would trade him for Dylan Strome. So forget adding a 2nd + 3rd, huge overpay. Keep in mind that Ostapchuk is now more worthy of that top-10 pick than Boucher, like not even close.

2) I doubt Murray is moved this season. I also can't see them buying him out as it's completely useless (very small savings spread over 4 years)

3) Remove Formenton and I would do it but I'm not giving the 7th OA pick AND Formenton, plsu some other good pieces on top of it

4) I would much rather have White than Drouin if White is paid 3.0 AAV but the thing is Drouin contract expires... All that being said, it would be much smarter to just buy out White instead of sacrificing the 10th OA pick from last season. Like Claesson4Norris said, the retention here is higher than the buyout



Yeah but this won't happen even if they were not high on him at all anymore. The pick is way too recent and teams don't declare a LOSS that fast. They will give time to Boucher to prove anybody that they made the right choice, or at least a decent one. If not, it will go down as a loss or end up like Logan Brown

1) ostpachuk didn’t even have 50 points in the whl this year, had a great first round, and was just a ppg player during the second half of the playoffs. trade him well he had value to bring in a guy who is still young and was on pace for 60 points this year.
I also believe that chicago would want some decent picks as they are starting a rebuild.
2) I would rather see us move murray to give the young goalies a chance to play behind forsberg.
3) I see what you mean but arizona has been getting some serious offers and the sens will have to make a pretty great offer to get arizona to finally pull the trigger. I could also see greig coming in and filling the role that formenton played if we do find a player to replace him on the top 9.
4) 1 year of drouins contact for him to prove himself. the guy has amazing talent but has been playing in sheltered roles for his hole career. could possibly resign him for cheap after his contract is up. White also does not fit within the top 9 if the sens want to bring in another top 6 forward. Boucher was the prospect i chose to throw in just because of my personal bias, could be any mid range prospect or mid round pick.
Jun. 28, 2022 at 3:51 p.m.
#10
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Quoting: rf9
1) ostpachuk didn’t even have 50 points in the whl this year, had a great first round, and was just a ppg player during the second half of the playoffs. trade him well he had value to bring in a guy who is still young and was on pace for 60 points this year.
I also believe that chicago would want some decent picks as they are starting a rebuild.
2) I would rather see us move murray to give the young goalies a chance to play behind forsberg.
3) I see what you mean but arizona has been getting some serious offers and the sens will have to make a pretty great offer to get arizona to finally pull the trigger. I could also see greig coming in and filling the role that formenton played if we do find a player to replace him on the top 9.
4) 1 year of drouins contact for him to prove himself. the guy has amazing talent but has been playing in sheltered roles for his hole career. could possibly resign him for cheap after his contract is up. White also does not fit within the top 9 if the sens want to bring in another top 6 forward. Boucher was the prospect i chose to throw in just because of my personal bias, could be any mid range prospect or mid round pick.


1) Don't worry I have been calling out their whole 2021 draft like crazy (and that includes Ostapchuk), every pick was a significant reach (reference in the draft is Bob McKenzie's list). However, Ostapchuk who has a pretty nice skillset (we liked him at rookie camp+) was always a possible candidate for a major breakout and that's what he did in the playoffs. The fact that he was still 18 y/o is what makes it legit. Sure it could be a "flash in the pan" but we don't expect that. This is a recent comment from a guy with scouting experience that I have been reading since 2005 :

" Ostapchuk has everything you want, size, skating, smarts and skill. Had a rough start production wise, but even if his playoffs never took off, he is in line for a very big 19 year old season. Would be surprised if he wasn’t on Team Canada and putting up 35g/40g and 85+ points next season. "

Now there's also the fact that Dylan Strome is a center (we don't have spots for Centers, Colin White is out of a job) and is not nearly as efficient on the wing, mainly due to poor skating. He doesn't fit the up-tempo style the Sens are trying to develop. If I "sell high" on Ostapchuk, it would have to be for another target

2) That he is moved or not, they don't have to play him... Forsberg is going to be the #1 assuming he plays similar to last season and remains healthy. Murray might get some start but based on the last 5 years, he might get injured very fast and could even end up on LTIR. Leave the situation resolve by itself. Also Sogaard, Mandolese and Merilainen are very young and need development, leave them in the AHL/OHL. Gustavsson will play don't worry

3) Greig might start as a 3rd liner but will rapidly work his way up (IMO). He's a 3rd liner if his development completely stalls, but he's only 19 y/o... clear top-6 forward in my evaluation. I want to have both Formenton and Greig, they each bring enticing skillsets that would help the Sens build something special. But you're not wrong at all, Chychrun has tremendous value, even though he becomes UFA in 3 seasons. There's a few problems here and without going deep in analysis, with Chabot, Sanderson and Zub, don't know if the Sens will be able to afford another 8+ M$ D-man. Plus, I know he can play RD but it's not his natural position and he's also not the "type" of D-man we need as he is actually quite similar to Chabot. We need a Cernak/Parayko/Carlo/Methot type to play with Chabot. So based on all that, giving up the 7th OA pick AND Formenton (plus other quality pieces) makes me unwell. Have to find the right balance in terms of future AAV, filling the exact need and assets paid to acquire the player.

4) ok so you understand why it can't and won't be Tyler Boucher in that situation. I like the fact that Drouin has only 1 year left but like I said, Colin White is an EASY buyout, very cheap. Drouin might have skill but the Sens don't need him. They won't be good if he takes a top-6 spot, I'd much rather spend the 7th OA pick on Kevin Fiala. It's hard to explain but Drouin is like a Mike Hoffman type but without the elite shot. He is just too far from being a complete player or even a 2-way player. You can shelter him but based on Hoffman and Duclair both leaving the Sens organization in recent years, I really doubt he's their "type"


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Good discussion!
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