That is not an updated chart

It’s hard to track defensive impact as far as I’m aware.

Why would Vancouver make this trade? You could argue barzal and Petey are pretty close and I believe demko is better than sorokin but both are top 5 goalies. The difference is Hughes is much better than Dobson right now and 2 of the 3 Canucks players are locked up long term at very good deals while all the isles players have little term left or no contract right now which makes them less valuable because they won’t sign for the same steals Van got Hughes and demko at.

Just your basic xGA, CA, isolated xG+/- per 60, isolate CF+/- per 60, take aways, take aways per 60

Just looking at his evolving-hockey page

???? It’s literally his entire career

His updated chart has his offensive and defensive impact as nearly identical to his 19-20 season (rookie year). His offensive was about 74% this season and defense 53% . Add to the fact that his production rates at even strength are elite as well as his penalty differential. His WAR% is 90

Evolving hockey has him in the 90th percentile for all defenseman with a solid two way impact at even strength
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This is a one year impact. @juiceman posted a weighted average of 3 years. Also not sure if you noticed but his defensive numbers are pretty average in the evolving hockey chart and his even strength Devensive GAR and xGAR are near replacement level

The 21-22 numbers are from February or march, not the whole season. I’m going to assume @juiceman got it from an old post on Twitter. For comparison look at his 21-22 numbers here

+/- is usually a misleading stat pic.twitter.com/jEryywMwR7

— Ryan (@RombautsRyan) July 25, 2022

I mean, there’s barely an difference. His even strength defense is actually worse in the Jfresh chart you shared lol

Yes he had a sophomore slump , just like Hughes. Even @juiceman knows that sophomore slump killed Hughes 3 year impact . Last year Hughes was awful.

Dobson’s xEVD is 0.4 , as a 22 YO defenseman who’s had to play with some of the worst defenseman in the NHL that is pretty good. If you’re putting up average to slightly above average defensive metrics in your age 20-22 seasons it’s very likely youll be among the best by the time you hit your prime

xGAR is the number that’s important for defenseman, not GAR

Both Hughes and Dobson have played 3 years in the NHL. Shows their stats over the course of their career

There is a difference - his WAR % went from 63% to 68 % . His Even strength defensive is still a above average in 2 of his first 3 seasons.

I’ll take the 114 game sample size over 46 games.

Again, not taking away anything from Dobson. He is an incredible player with very good potential. Hughes is better though. Both players still need to work on defensive game as it’s not like Dobson is much better than Hughes defensively. They both got work to do

This is the updated chart

+/- is usually a misleading stat pic.twitter.com/jEryywMwR7

— Ryan (@RombautsRyan) July 25, 2022

Here is a basic stat comparison site:
https://frozenpool.dobbersports.com/frozenpool_compare.php?players%5B%5D=4789&players%5B%5D=4993&period=2021-2022%3AR%3A99

Doesn’t show all the analytics but it shows most of the basic stats.

0.4 is not good lol. I don’t care who you’re playing with. Quinn Hughes was 1.9 xEVD GAR last year

His even strength defense went from 49 to 47. I’m not saying his overall game got worse, I’m saying his defensive game on the Jfresh chart went down. Also 50th percentile is average. 49th or 47th or whatever, is below average.

Even if we look at his final year, it barely hovers above average.

Again, I am NOT saying Dobson is a bad defenseman. Obviously he’s very good offensively. But calling him a 2-way petriangelo type is way off base

Who you play with does matter a lot actually. Quality of teammates affects production/underlying numbers.

Hughes is better at suppressing shots , Dobson is better at preventing quality shots.

Dobson’s overall xGAR of 14.5 was higher than each of Hughes last 3 seasons.

The whole point of isolated impact numbers is the remove teammate bias.

Also Quinn Hughes overal xGAR last year was 14.2 so extremely close to Dobson. Both players are extremely comparable

His EV defense averaged at 47% because his defense was terrible in 46 games last season, but Dobson has had 2 seasons of above average defensive play.

It’s not off base to say he’s on a pietrangelo trajectory. He was one of the best RH defenseman in the league last season.

For example look at bad Hughes was last season. It dragged down his defensive impact. His WAR% was replacement level.

Quinn Hughes, reportedly signed 6x$7.75M by VAN, is a talented puck-moving offensive defenceman who suffered through a pretty tough sophomore slump after an elite rookie season. Might not be a better passing blueliner in the league but struggles defensively. #Canucks pic.twitter.com/CbjjORgayy

— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) October 1, 2021

WTH i love this acgm. Honestly the way i see it is barzy=EP40. Theyre different players but i think they have similar value. Hughes>dobson rn but dobson has legit 2 way upside and while hughes isnt a liability defensively anymore he will never be good defensively (and dobbers a righty). Sorokin>demko the thing about sorokin is hes a ufa in 2 years while demko has more term. All in all i think its a pretty fair deal actually and therefore both teams decline.

Yeah but analytics arent perfect. And trying to quantify unquantifiable results will always be an imperfect process. Im not saying i hate analytics i use them a lot, but they should be treated with some caution, theyre not the gospel.

Yeah I don’t disagree at all. I think it’s good actually to be relatively skeptical if xG and corsi numbers since a) they are prone to tracking errors, b) they only capture specific data like shot location and timing and angle and type and miss things such as passes before shot, zone time before the shot, and shot quality, and c) they merely reflect results, not process, meaning luck or style can impact the data.


What my point was in early places in the thread is that Dobson’s defensive analytics are not good, so if he is good defensively then it is not reflected in the numbers. His analytical profile is that of an offensive defenseman, as opposed to some one like pulock who is a full two-way guy analytically.

Okay sweet, Dobson also had a terrible 2020-2021 season. Hughes having a bad year doesn’t mean that Dobson has a good defensive profile lol. Again, if you look at Dobson’s card in the post YOU SHARED, his even strength gar and xGAR are both at or barely above replacement level. His PK defense is good (though he plays not very much PK time so not super impactful), but Evolving-Hockey has even said themselves that PK isolated impacts are the hardest to quantify and measuring GAR and xGAR for pkers isn’t very informative.

Basically, Dobson has an analytical profile of an offensive defenseman. The numbers to back up any claim to him being a good two way player. In fact, a lot of data would suggest him and Quinn Hughes have very similar offensive and defensive profiles.