I would need that first round pick to be heavily protected or I’d need to get a helpful player back in the deal.

Again we r talking about Ken Holland here. We r taking about Chris Drury if you want to bring up the Nemeth deal.

Holland, Drury, Fletcher, and Kelly McCrimmon are morons. Jarmo doesn’t look that smart rn either.

Fair point!
Ultimately I composed a deal where I felt everyone benefited - Islanders clear space, Pens get an upgrade, and Ducks get draft picks or prospects. Which picks and prospects can be debated, but I felt like the trade helped the Isles and Pens accomplish some goals and scored the Ducks some assets at the cost of taking on some salary.

Kassian is owed $600 k more over 2 years as Zucker is in 1 year. There are 10 teams currently over the cap. A few of those teams have it sorted via LTIR, which leaves 6-7 of them trying to figure it out. On the other end, there are 9 teams with over $9 mil in space. 4 or 5 of those have RFA's that likely own't be cheap to sign, which leaves 3-4 teams total to absorb any cap dumps.

IMO, if a team taking on a cap dump at this point of the offseason isn't getting an absolute premium, then there's really no reason to do it. Arizona is the only team below the floor right now, but should be fine once Hayton/Crouse are signed. Buffalo made their cap move with Bishop. Anaheim jumped above with Klingberg, who you'd have to imagine, they intend to flip before the deadline. All of those teams are non-contenders, and have no reason to do it without getting solid assets. 100% my opinion though, and I could be completely wrong.

Certainly, and I'm not disagreeing with your assessment of what it costs to "dump" Bailey. It could be a 7th, or it could be 2 1st. I have no idea; however, I don't think the premise of this trade hinges on the cost to dump Bailey so much as whether Bailey is considered a cap dump or not.

The assumption here is that the Isles are willing to pay whatever it takes, and Anaheim is willing to take on Bailey if the Isles pay the price. In this scenario, now that Anaheim has accepted Bailey and whatever the premium is to move him, they're willing to swap him and the 2 years left on his deal to Pittsburgh for Zucker with 1 year remaining and a lesser asset.

Apparently the second a gm makes a questionable/bad deal, that is now what every other deal should look like.
I think this is a great deal for Anaheim. I don’t see why Pittsburgh does it. I think they’d rather just keep Zucker and get out of the contract sooner than take on Bailey. I don’t think Bailey is really a cap dump. I could see Bailey getting a 6th or 7th from a team with cap space as a low risk/high reward player. Same with Zucker. If the pens wanted to get rid of Zucker, they could probably get a 6th or 7th from a team like Anaheim or Arizona who could flip him at the deadline 50% retained for a much better pick.

I bet if anyone on here would have traded a 3rd and 4th for Bjorkstrand on here a few weeks ago that they’d have gotten ripped and called a troll.

You could be right about the value for Bailey and Zucker, I'm just working from what seems to be the common assumptions of many ACGMs. For me, Pittsburgh does it to free themselves of the oft-injured Zucker for a more consistent player at a similar cap hit. Bailey is also a proven playoff performer, which I think boosts his value for Pittsburgh.

The other aspect of the deal that I didn't get into was Anaheim possibly retaining salary on Bailey, particularly since he only cost $3.5 mil in real dollars. If Pittsburgh sweetens the pot enough for 50% retention, then Bailey's reduced cap hit (only $2.5mil) provides some flexibility for Pittsburgh to add another $2.5mil player to complete their roster. Yes, Bailey's hit will be on the books for the following season, but $2.5 mil for a middle six winger putting up 45 points seems like a pretty good deal. And, if Bailey does well this season but Pittsburgh needs to clear space for resigning Jarry and adding a LD, he should be an easy player to move.

How eager would you be to trade Zucker if he’s healthy? If the medical staff in Pittsburgh think he is gonna be ok then he’s not a cap dump imo.

I think that it’s far more likely that GM’s r waiting to make a move until the Bjorkstrand trade seems less relevant to whatever move they want to make. That could be a week. That could be a month. Idk. I find it hard to believe teams can just will insane cap dumps into existence.

For me…zero. He’s been a .5 ppg player playing 3rd line minutes. When he’s healthy he’s been actually pretty decent. Even when he’s not scoring, he’s doing everything else well.



Agreed

Zucker in Pittsburgh is tough to evaluate due to his injuries. Plus he hasn't seemed to click with Malkin yet, whom I assume he'll line up with this year. Even healthy, and ignoring term, I think Zucker for Bailey is a good swap. Bailey is slightly older, so likely further into his decline, but he has continued to produce consistently, and as I mentioned, he is a playoff performer. With the dollars being the same I'll take Bailey.

Also, if my desired scenario played out, adding Bailey with retention for the cost of Zucker+ allows Pittsburgh to add more depth. Having Bailey plus another middle 6 winger would be a nice way to finish the offseason.

Josh Bailey haters always pop out of the wood works when something goes wrong. He still gets blamed for Yanni Gourde getting a short handed goal… when Tampa had 17 men on the ice. Don’t get me wrong Tampa deserved to win but u couldn’t blame him for that.

It seems like in baseball they try and use analytics to figure out how to maximize a players effectiveness and in hockey fans just use it to justify cap dumps lol.