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Atlantic Projectsions

Who finishes first?
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Sep. 16, 2022 at 11:03 a.m.
#1
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The Atlantic is very tough to predict. Maybe the toughest to predict with so many what-ifs for every team.

What impact does Krejci and Bergeron have with Boston? Does their defense hold up? Swayman?

TOR loses depth scoring and their goaltending took a potential hit. Grossly outscoring teams with mediocre goaltending does not hold up over time, but can they do it again with less coring threats?

Florida's offense dynamic changes and they lost Marchment, but not quite sure how it shakes out. Their defense takes a hit, but how big? They have the goaltending and offense.

Tampa loses Palat and McD, but they're still lethal all-around and have the best goaltender in the world. The big question is do they show exhaustion from all the long runs?

1) Florida (Goaltending carries them)
2) Boston (Boldest prediction, but something tells me they go on one last serious run before falling off completely)
3) Tampa
4) Toronto
5) Detroit
6) Buffalo
7) Ottawa
8) Montreal

I believe the 23/24 season is where we see a complete shift and we see Ottawa, Detroit and Buffalo take over the division.
Sep. 17, 2022 at 3:36 a.m.
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Edited Sep. 17, 2022 at 5:39 a.m.
I think Toronto wins the Atlantic. We know that all three of Florida, Toronto, and Tampa Bay each regressed to some degree this off-season. Personally I think Toronto regressed the least amount of the three

I think Tampa is going to look noticeably different without Palat and McDonagh, having added to or replaced their personnel with the likes of Vlad Namestnikov, Phillipe Myers, and Ian Cole.

Besides downgrading Mikheyev to Jarnkrok, Toronto's team is pretty much the same team. Will be curious to see if guys like Liljigren and Sandin take a step, and if a guy like Nick Robertson can make the team out of camp. The Leafs will of course have to subtract from their roster to be able to fit Sandin, which is important to keep in mind.

I'm kind of surprised more people aren't talking about this, but Florida's blueline doesn't look too impressive now that Weegar is gone. I mean, it was still an imperfect blueline even WITH Weegar. I could really see Florida having some trouble keeping the puck out of their net considering how hit and miss Bobrovsky can be. Definitely don't see the Panthers winning the presidents trophy this coming season. They should still make the playoffs considering the rest of the competition they face in the Atlantic, but I definitely don't see a cup contender with the roster the Panthers currently have constructed.

I know this might sound kind of cheesy, but I honestly feel that Ottawa's playoff hopes largely hinge on Boston's ability to stay afloat/tread water for the first two to three months of the season when they will be without Marchand, McAvoy, and Grzelcyk. I can honestly see it go either way. If Boston were fully healthy to start the year, I would say that Ottawa's best bet is the 2nd wildcard spot should the Atlantic claim both wildcards. We know where both team's strengths lie, but when weighing each team's weaknesses against each other, I think Ottawa's holes/deficiencies on their blueline extend a bit further than Boston's depth scoring issues.

As for Detroit, Buffalo, or Montreal, I don't see any of them being ready to challenge for a playoff spot yet.
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Sep. 17, 2022 at 4:42 a.m.
#3
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Toronto or Tampa gonna win the division

Toronto is gonna have a tough bottom 6 with a top 6 that will light up the score sheet

Florida of the big 4 in the Atlantic has the worst Dcore and so they might find themselves as a Wc team heck one injury to Barkov or Ekblad and they could miss
Sep. 17, 2022 at 5:38 a.m.
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Quoting: aadoyle
Toronto or Tampa gonna win the division

Toronto is gonna have a tough bottom 6 with a top 6 that will light up the score sheet

Florida of the big 4 in the Atlantic has the worst Dcore and so they might find themselves as a Wc team heck one injury to Barkov or Ekblad and they could miss


I would still take Florida's D-core over Ottawa, Montreal, and Detroit. Maybe not Buffalo
Sep. 17, 2022 at 9:17 a.m.
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florida but i can easily see toronto taking it if murray isn't a ****show.
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Sep. 17, 2022 at 9:55 a.m.
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Quoting: aadoyle
Toronto or Tampa gonna win the division

Toronto is gonna have a tough bottom 6 with a top 6 that will light up the score sheet

Florida of the big 4 in the Atlantic has the worst Dcore and so they might find themselves as a Wc team heck one injury to Barkov or Ekblad and they could miss


If they do stay healthy they’ll be just fine because most of they’re forwards are good defensively so it takes some of the pressure off the defence as long as no one gets injured
Sep. 17, 2022 at 11:31 a.m.
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Quoting: DirtyDangle
florida but i can easily see toronto taking it if murray isn't a ****show.


That's the real x-factor here and it's a HUGE x-factor. How Murray performs either makes them a top team or a bubble team.
Sep. 17, 2022 at 11:33 a.m.
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Quoting: aadoyle
Toronto or Tampa gonna win the division

Toronto is gonna have a tough bottom 6 with a top 6 that will light up the score sheet

Florida of the big 4 in the Atlantic has the worst Dcore and so they might find themselves as a Wc team heck one injury to Barkov or Ekblad and they could miss


When you say a tough bottom six I'm not sure if you mean tough as in bad or touch as in hard to play against, because their bottom six took a step back from last year and last year it was OK. They lost Spezza and Mikheyev, and replaced them with only one person, Jarnkrok. That's not to say some of their young guys may get an opportunity to shine, but as of right now their bottom-six scoring isn't as good as it was.

Combine that with some potentially below average or simply bad goaltending and this team has a higher mountain to climb.
Sep. 17, 2022 at 12:48 p.m.
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Quoting: Mr_Gardoki
When you say a tough bottom six I'm not sure if you mean tough as in bad or touch as in hard to play against, because their bottom six took a step back from last year and last year it was OK. They lost Spezza and Mikheyev, and replaced them with only one person, Jarnkrok. That's not to say some of their young guys may get an opportunity to shine, but as of right now their bottom-six scoring isn't as good as it was.

Combine that with some potentially below average or simply bad goaltending and this team has a higher mountain to climb.


ZAR-Kampf-Kubel is gonna be very annoying to play against and will make it tough for opponents to get anything done. Jarnkrok-Engvall-Holmberg will be fast and annoying to keep away from the offensive zone. In other words 2 combinations that are tough beyond the realm of just fighting.

And once again people go well the goaltending. Leafs finished 4th in the NHL with below average goaltending out of Campbell and Mrazek after 1 month of strong play. Murray and Samsonov both do average could see pres trophy winners and even if they are below probs will finish 4th again lul
Sep. 17, 2022 at 1:16 p.m.
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Quoting: aadoyle
ZAR-Kampf-Kubel is gonna be very annoying to play against and will make it tough for opponents to get anything done. Jarnkrok-Engvall-Holmberg will be fast and annoying to keep away from the offensive zone. In other words 2 combinations that are tough beyond the realm of just fighting.

And once again people go well the goaltending. Leafs finished 4th in the NHL with below average goaltending out of Campbell and Mrazek after 1 month of strong play. Murray and Samsonov both do average could see pres trophy winners and even if they are below probs will finish 4th again lul


Starting with the last part first...

People need to stop with this argument of what the Leafs did last year. That recipe is not sustainable. Just because they did it last year doesn't mean they can do it again. Teams have proven this time and time again, and failed at the end. Overpowering teams with offense when you have bad goaltending will not sustain over time. Just look at the Flyers the last thirty years for reference. The same goes for the opposite. Look at the Islanders. You can have great goaltending and good defense, but if you don't have the scoring you will ultimately fail because it's not sustainable. The Islanders overachieved and the unsustainable model caught up with them.

Can the leafs do it again? Sure, but it's unlikely. Also, the piece you're missing about the bottom six is production. Yeah, defensively they may be tough, but TOR took a step back in bottom six production and that will hurt, especially when you need to score at the rate they need to in order make up for how many goals they will allow.

Now look, if Murray finds himself that changes EVERYTHING, but he has to prove that first.
 
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