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Pre-season roster battles -- 15 players battling for 8 spots

Created by: NHLfan10506
Team: 2022-23 New Jersey Devils
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 17, 2022
Published: Sep. 17, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Position Battles:

Top-six: Hughes, Hischier, Bratt and Sharangovich are likely locks. Palat probably gets in there too. Mercer unless they play him at 3C (but Haula is expected to play there). If Holtz or Zetterlund were to get a shot, they'd have to earn it.

4C: Probably the most underrated of all the pre-season battles. McLeod is leader in clubhouse, but if Boqvist continues his upward trend from end of last season, he could be unseated. I'd say its McLeod 75, Boqvist 25 to start camp.

1G / 2G: Blackwood likely to get first crack...but will likely be "hot hand" all season. I would guess each get about 30-35 starts, if healthy (Daws gets a handful too).



Roster Battles:

Miles Wood spot: If Miles Wood starts year on IR, they could either move Holtz up to 3LW, Johnsson to 4LW...or just call up Foote or Dugan temporarily to fill 4LW spot. But this post assumes he starts healthy.

13ths, 14th Forwards: Holtz and Zetterlund are both likely to make team and play. That leaves one of these five guys on outside looking in: McLeod, Bastian, Johnsson, Tatar or Boqvist (all five would have to clear waivers). If everyone is healthy, it may be the loser or McLeod vs Boqvist battle for 4C that gets jettisoned.

6th/7th Dman: Smith will occupy one of those spots while Walsh, Okhotiuk, Bahl likely battle for other spot. I'd say its a toss-up between Walsh and Okhotiuk.


Bubble (odds of making team)

Forwards: 11 F's for 6 roster spots
Locks (100%): Hughes, Hischier, Bratt, Sharangovich, Palat, Mercer, Haula, Wood (8F)

Tatar: 90%
Zetterlund: 85%
McLeod: 80%
Johnsson: 80%
Bastian: 70%
Holtz: 70%
Boqvist: 60%
Geertsen: 25%
Thomspon: 20%
Foote: 20%
Dugan: 5%
(someone else): 5%


Defense: 4 D's for 2 roster spots
Locks (100%): Hamilton, Siegenthaler, Severson, Marino, Graves (5D)

Smith: 95%
Okhotiuk: 40%
Walsh: 40%
Bahl: 10%
(someone else): 5%

Goalie:
Locks (100%): Blackwood, Vanecek (5D)

Daws: < 5%
Trades
NJD
    Could be any team...picked Columbus here since his brother is there.
    CBJ
    1. Boqvist, Jesper
    Additional Details:
    Unless Wood starts on IR or another trade is made, it could be the loser of 4C battle, McLeod or Boqvist, that loses a roster spot in training camp.
    Buyouts
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    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2023
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    2024
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    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    23$82,500,000$78,910,834$0$1,382,500$3,589,166
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    $7,250,000$7,250,000
    C
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    $5,450,000$5,450,000
    RW, LW
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    $894,167$894,167 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
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    LW
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    $975,000$975,000
    C
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    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
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    UFA - 1
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    $2,800,000$2,800,000
    G
    UFA - 1
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    $3,166,667$3,166,667
    LD
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    $9,000,000$9,000,000
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    $3,400,000$3,400,000
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    $789,167$789,167 (Performance Bonus$132,500$132K)
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    ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
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    $3,400,000$3,400,000
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    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
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    $4,125,000$4,125,000
    G
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    $4,500,000$4,500,000
    LW, RW
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    $1,100,000$1,100,000
    LD/RD, LW
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    Taxi Squad
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    $925,000$925,000 ($0$0$0$0)
    RD
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    $795,000$795,000 ($0$0$0$0) (Performance Bonus$82,500$82K)
    LD
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    $863,333$863,333 ($0$0$0$0)
    LW
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    RW
    RFA - 2
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    RD
    RFA - 4

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    Sep. 17, 2022 at 4:28 p.m.
    #1
    n.1 Topias Vilen fan
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    Boqvist is better than McLeod in my opinion, it's his spot to lose
    MellowK liked this.
    Sep. 18, 2022 at 11:56 a.m.
    #2
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    Quoting: pretzelcoatl
    Boqvist is better than McLeod in my opinion, it's his spot to lose


    Boqvsit isn't a 4th line center; Boqvist doesn't hit, win faceoffs, or play on the penalty kill. With Haula and Mcleod doing defensive grunt work, it doesn't burden Hischier (less extent Hughes) with defensive zone responsibilities.
    Sep. 18, 2022 at 12:02 p.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: FireShero
    Boqvsit isn't a 4th line center; Boqvist doesn't hit, win faceoffs, or play on the penalty kill. With Haula and Mcleod doing defensive grunt work, it doesn't burden Hischier (less extent Hughes) with defensive zone responsibilities.


    Player roles are a myth. A skilled fourth line is no worse than a gritty one
    MellowK and Tintin liked this.
    Sep. 18, 2022 at 12:17 p.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: pretzelcoatl
    Player roles are a myth. A skilled fourth line is no worse than a gritty one


    Wearing down the opposition is not a myth, it's a necessity, for playoff teams anyway
    Sep. 18, 2022 at 12:20 p.m.
    #5
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    Quoting: Fox_Czar_Cup
    Wearing down the opposition is not a myth, it's a necessity, for playoff teams anyway


    Grit is not the only way to wear down the opposition. If all four lines are an offensive threat, you can wear them down with constant pressure
    Sep. 19, 2022 at 8:25 p.m.
    #6
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    Quoting: pretzelcoatl
    Player roles are a myth. A skilled fourth line is no worse than a gritty one


    Wow, I am the exact opposite. I think player roles are very important. Which is why I was happy the Devils got Haula. Haula/ Mcleod are both good defensively, win faceoffs, pk, and hit. Good 3C/ 4C that allow Hischier and Hughes to focus only scoring and less on defense.

    Quoting: pretzelcoatl
    Grit is not the only way to wear down the opposition. If all four lines are an offensive threat, you can wear them down with constant pressure


    Recent history seems to favour one line + defense with grit: COL (Helm, Manson, Johnson, Kubel) TBL 2x (Maroon, Coburn, Paquette, Cernak, Schenn, Coleman) WSH ( Wilson, Niskanen, Orpik, Beagle)
    Sep. 20, 2022 at 6:23 a.m.
    #7
    do not Devil my ass
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    Quoting: FireShero
    Mcleod is good defensively, win faceoffs, pk, and hit. Good 4C that allow Hischier and Hughes to focus only scoring and less on defense.


    This isn't really true, at all.
    Despite being pretty good at winning faceoffs, McLeod is on average responsible for giving up a higher number of scoring chances against.
    He got caved in constantly last season mainly due to this inability to keep possession, transition the puck up the ice and generate pressure.
    McLeod has done absolutely nothing to show that he's good NHLer up to this point and I see no reason why Boqvist shouldn't be in the lineup ahead of him.
    Sep. 20, 2022 at 11:02 a.m.
    #8
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    Quoting: Tintin
    This isn't really true, at all.
    Despite being pretty good at winning faceoffs, McLeod is on average responsible for giving up a higher number of scoring chances against.
    He got caved in constantly last season mainly due to this inability to keep possession, transition the puck up the ice and generate pressure.
    McLeod has done absolutely nothing to show that he's good NHLer up to this point and I see no reason why Boqvist shouldn't be in the lineup ahead of him.


    McLeod's game has evolved considerably in last couple of years. When he first came up, he would often try to stick-handle through guys. His speed allowed him to get away with it in juniors, but at NHL level, he is a terrible puck-handler (more of a puck pusher). Over the last two seasons, and last year especially, he has adopted more 4C mentality. Dump, chase, hit, cycle, repeat. I want to see another year in that role, especially with a healthy Wood back.

    Plus you need a good face-off guy in bottom of lineup. I know a lot of people don't subscribe to face-offs as meaningful statistically...but when you narrow to certain situations (ie, late in game, ahead by goal, draw in d-zone....they can decide games). (this is one area where the fancy stat folks are using the wrong stats).

    Also, McLeod is much more physical than Boqvist and our lineup isn't exactly overflowing with physicality.

    Quoting: pretzelcoatl
    Player roles are a myth. A skilled fourth line is no worse than a gritty one


    This is where analytics has it completely wrong. When you take large sets of data, and measure them against a mean, You get these one-size-fits-all type remedies that completely ignore narrow, specific situations. If this were even close to true, why have positions? Just put five players on ice. Why put a right-handed winger on LW for possession line and RW for speed attack? Why play RHD at RD and LHD at LD? It wouldn't matter who goes where...why not ice 18 speedy skilled forwards?

    Quoting: FireShero
    Wow, I am the exact opposite. I think player roles are very important. Which is why I was happy the Devils got Haula. Haula/ Mcleod are both good defensively, win faceoffs, pk, and hit. Good 3C/ 4C that allow Hischier and Hughes to focus only scoring and less on defense.

    Recent history seems to favour one line + defense with grit: COL (Helm, Manson, Johnson, Kubel) TBL 2x (Maroon, Coburn, Paquette, Cernak, Schenn, Coleman) WSH ( Wilson, Niskanen, Orpik, Beagle)



    Agree...they are important. I don't think that have to fit a certain formula of skill, skill, defense, grit. As long as there is a good mix of players with chemistry...ie, some skilled perimeter guys, some interior quick hands guys, some physicality, etc. Sometimes speed wins, sometimes size wins, sometimes skill wins...best to have some diversification.
    Sep. 20, 2022 at 11:44 a.m.
    #9
    n.1 Topias Vilen fan
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    Edited Sep. 20, 2022 at 11:51 a.m.
    Quoting: NHLfan10506
    This is where analytics has it completely wrong. When you take large sets of data, and measure them against a mean, You get these one-size-fits-all type remedies that completely ignore narrow, specific situations. If this were even close to true, why have positions? Just put five players on ice. Why put a right-handed winger on LW for possession line and RW for speed attack? Why play RHD at RD and LHD at LD? It wouldn't matter who goes where...why not ice 18 speedy skilled forwards?


    I see the point you're trying to make, but I disagree. Analytics such as WAR don't claim to measure things like what position a player is playing, though they absolutely could, very easily in fact. I agree that, in general, defensemen should play their handedness and line chemistry is important. I'd like to hit on that last point though, why not ice 18 speedy skilled forwards? I mean, Hamilton, Luke Hughes, Quinn Hughes, and Mukhamadullin are all basically wingers. What's wrong with four forward lines of skill? As long as each of the four lines has chemistry, there's no need for a "shutdown" line or a "grit" line. Whatever the players do that makes the most positive impact is what they should do, and I believe that all four lines of this Devils team are better suited to skilled possession play than traditional line roles.

    Edit: I should clarify that when I said player roles originally, I meant line roles. Of course things like snipers and playmakers and PK specialists have their niches. That said, I'd prefer an average PKer who can play a solid offensive game to a Jimmy Vesey
    Sep. 20, 2022 at 8:44 p.m.
    #10
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    Quoting: Tintin
    This isn't really true, at all.
    Despite being pretty good at winning faceoffs, McLeod is on average responsible for giving up a higher number of scoring chances against.
    He got caved in constantly last season mainly due to this inability to keep possession, transition the puck up the ice and generate pressure.
    McLeod has done absolutely nothing to show that he's good NHLer up to this point and I see no reason why Boqvist shouldn't be in the lineup ahead of him.


    Mcleod also started faceoffs 75% of the time in the defensive zone; so even if he wins 57% of his faceoffs Mcleod started without the puck in his own zone on roughly 33% of his faceoffs. Cannot help but think that that skews his possession numbers to be worse than what they are.
     
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