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Similar Errors Cost The Leafs - Who To Blame?

Does Toronto Have A Coaching Problem
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Oct. 14, 2022 at 1:51 a.m.
#26
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Quoting: Analytics_are_good
It’s a bit of both, IMO. Obviously hindsight is 20/20 but a part of me wonders if TOR rushed into win-now mode too quickly, like after the 2019-20 season it was clear that their D core needed a full revamp outside Rielly. I wonder if they were too aggressive to give 31 year old Muzzin a big deal when they could’ve looked for younger less proven players and developed them to suit the system so that when Sandin, Dermott, Liljegren were ready everyone would be heading into their primes. Kinda like how COL did with the Toews trade, like maybe we could’ve traded for guys like Mike Reilly/ Jonas Siegenthaler/Kylington/Kulak. Like we can’t just expect to acquire other team’s proven players, you look PIT, COL, TB, all of them have players whom the coaching staff developed whether it’s homegrown or acquired as a low-risk project. I wonder if that’s something that TOR lacks, if that makes sense?


What I will say about Muzzin is he was fine when initially traded for but it takes some vision to walk away from an extension and find a younger D who could grow into the system and provide the competitiveness Leafs need. Dubas clearly didn't have enough vision to do something like that.

As for tactical vs player hockey sense, I mean there has to be a combination of both and what I have seen over the last 2 years at least is, a huge lack of hockey sense.

There's nothing wrong with pinching to keep the puck in the offensive zone but these players have not used (or lack) that sense of when to pinch and when to just be in the best position to defend.

The one thing that really bothers me is how all these players defend odd man rushes. I don't know if this is a coaching issue or player issue but how do you not stop the pass and let the goalie worry about the shot?

This is something learned quite early in hockey and yet this team seems to fail alot on these odd man rushes.
Oct. 14, 2022 at 8:43 p.m.
#27
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Quoting: Random2152
Nope. JTs contract is fine. Ignore media narratives he shot way below expected last year. Worst on the team contract wise might be muzzin and even then im not entirely ready to say he hasnt played to value over the course of his entire deal


I agree JT's contract is not as bad as people think. He's still a fantastic player. And I do get that:
a) if the cap went up as it was supposed to the deal would probably still be close to fair value, and
b) he took a discount to come here
but on pure cap% vs value analysis somewhere in the 8-9M range would be a lot more fair for him today.

And yea Muzzin's deal is the other concerning one. But not the worst in the world, when he's on his game he's truly a high end shutdown D. Loved him being paired with Brodie end of last season, though I dont know who would play with Rielly this year (Lily breakout?)
Oct. 15, 2022 at 11:05 a.m.
#28
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Quoting: leafs101
I agree JT's contract is not as bad as people think. He's still a fantastic player. And I do get that:
a) if the cap went up as it was supposed to the deal would probably still be close to fair value, and
b) he took a discount to come here
but on pure cap% vs value analysis somewhere in the 8-9M range would be a lot more fair for him today.

And yea Muzzin's deal is the other concerning one. But not the worst in the world, when he's on his game he's truly a high end shutdown D. Loved him being paired with Brodie end of last season, though I dont know who would play with Rielly this year (Lily breakout?)


The players you tend to compare him to are usually RFAs though, and recent examples of UFAs signed in covid cap. JT is starting the back half of his contract. He way overperformed in the front half remember. You can't just look at a contract today and say "bad contract shouldn't have signed" you have to look at the body of work so long as he is still performing at a high level, which he is. More to that he shot way under expected and i think people are unreasonably down on him as a result. Given that im not even convinced he isnt overall still playin at 11M value. His contract has been about as good as we could have hoped and anyone saying otherwise is frankly stupid.

Muzz's issue is injury and slowing down. Im not overly worried about him. He isnt producing a massive surplus or anything but I wouldnt say he is a negative at all.
Oct. 15, 2022 at 5:49 p.m.
#29
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Quoting: Random2152
I mean it has though. Youre attributing the losses to the wrong thing. Ive already said most back breakers come from bad goals (Goalies should have had A LOT of them) off the rush.

Its Goalies, and rush defence. The latter of which we can work on


Yeah I agree but wouldn’t you say the rushes are caused a lot of times by players trying to look for a set play when it’s neutralized, or when they don’t have the capability to consistently make a carry?
Oct. 15, 2022 at 5:50 p.m.
#30
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Quoting: oneX
What I will say about Muzzin is he was fine when initially traded for but it takes some vision to walk away from an extension and find a younger D who could grow into the system and provide the competitiveness Leafs need. Dubas clearly didn't have enough vision to do something like that.

As for tactical vs player hockey sense, I mean there has to be a combination of both and what I have seen over the last 2 years at least is, a huge lack of hockey sense.

There's nothing wrong with pinching to keep the puck in the offensive zone but these players have not used (or lack) that sense of when to pinch and when to just be in the best position to defend.

The one thing that really bothers me is how all these players defend odd man rushes. I don't know if this is a coaching issue or player issue but how do you not stop the pass and let the goalie worry about the shot?

This is something learned quite early in hockey and yet this team seems to fail alot on these odd man rushes.


I don’t think they practice having to defend the rush much tbh. It’s like they don’t expect to give it up, they expect that their puck possession is so effective that the opposition won’t ever pick them off. Of course that is the right way of thinking, but to execute at that level is not so easy.
Oct. 15, 2022 at 5:55 p.m.
#31
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Quoting: Analytics_are_good
Yeah I agree but wouldn’t you say the rushes are caused a lot of times by players trying to look for a set play when it’s neutralized, or when they don’t have the capability to consistently make a carry?


The players looking for a play works out more than it burns us. It can be hard to see but the numbers work.

Its like how its proven to be better to give up a breakaway then a 2-on-1. Looks and feels worse but we know it works out in our favour.

The best thing we can do now is work on that NZD to make the gap larger
Oct. 15, 2022 at 7:21 p.m.
#32
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Quoting: Analytics_are_good
I don’t think they practice having to defend the rush much tbh. It’s like they don’t expect to give it up, they expect that their puck possession is so effective that the opposition won’t ever pick them off. Of course that is the right way of thinking, but to execute at that level is not so easy.


Well... they should be practicing it. The goalies they have are not top level that the team can just expect the goalie to bail them out of these odd man rushes.

Odd man rushes happen way too often for my liking.
Oct. 17, 2022 at 2:18 p.m.
#33
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Quoting: Random2152
The players looking for a play works out more than it burns us. It can be hard to see but the numbers work.

Its like how its proven to be better to give up a breakaway then a 2-on-1. Looks and feels worse but we know it works out in our favour.

The best thing we can do now is work on that NZD to make the gap larger


For sure it works out well when it's executed right. But I just wonder if certain guys like Kerfoot and Engvall shouldn't be looking for this type of play.
Oct. 17, 2022 at 2:19 p.m.
#34
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Quoting: oneX
Well... they should be practicing it. The goalies they have are not top level that the team can just expect the goalie to bail them out of these odd man rushes.

Odd man rushes happen way too often for my liking.


Honestly I think it starts with deployment, guys like Muzzin-Holl, Kampf's line need to understand they are here to play defence and shut top guys down, so make the simple play instead of trying to make fancy breakout passes and pinches which they're not suited for.
Oct. 17, 2022 at 2:47 p.m.
#35
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Quoting: Analytics_are_good
For sure it works out well when it's executed right. But I just wonder if certain guys like Kerfoot and Engvall shouldn't be looking for this type of play.


Its works for all players. Engvall in particular is very effective, but quietly so
Oct. 18, 2022 at 9:17 p.m.
#36
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Quoting: Random2152
Its works for all players. Engvall in particular is very effective, but quietly so


Yeah Engvall and Kerfoot are not bad at the cycle game. But they've been here a while, they've had a chance to get better at puck carrying. What r ur thoughts on Holl's failed passes and pinches?
Oct. 18, 2022 at 9:53 p.m.
#37
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Quoting: Analytics_are_good
Yeah Engvall and Kerfoot are not bad at the cycle game. But they've been here a while, they've had a chance to get better at puck carrying. What r ur thoughts on Holl's failed passes and pinches?


I think Holl is a 3rd pair dman, and expecting more from him is weird. Yeah, he makes dumb mistakes. He also has some pretty decent upside too and can play up the lineup in a pinch. Not too many 3RDs can offer more than that
Oct. 21, 2022 at 5:12 p.m.
#38
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Quoting: Analytics_are_good
Honestly I think it starts with deployment, guys like Muzzin-Holl, Kampf's line need to understand they are here to play defence and shut top guys down, so make the simple play instead of trying to make fancy breakout passes and pinches which they're not suited for.


In the last few games I remember the top two lines giving up odd man rushes, not the bottom six. If the top guys don't have their game together, how can anyone expect the bottom guys to?

Bottom line is, odd man rushes early in the season is not a huge deal but the thing is we have seen these same odd man rushes late in the season AND IN THE PLAYOFFS. Most of the time it's the top guys and they need to figure it out.
Oct. 24, 2022 at 4:23 p.m.
#39
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Quoting: oneX
In the last few games I remember the top two lines giving up odd man rushes, not the bottom six. If the top guys don't have their game together, how can anyone expect the bottom guys to?

Bottom line is, odd man rushes early in the season is not a huge deal but the thing is we have seen these same odd man rushes late in the season AND IN THE PLAYOFFS. Most of the time it's the top guys and they need to figure it out.


Different roles. Top line guys are here to play puck possession, when you make high risk plays it’s inevitable, they out produce the deficits most times and did enough for them to win vs TB. Point, Kucherov & Stamkos we’re literally held to 1 goal at 5v5. The bottom 6, guys like Holl, Muzzin & Lyabushkin are here to play defence, hold the line for point shots & crash the net, but they think they’re McDavid / Makar every shift, hence why you see the turnovers by Kerfoot, Mikheyev & Blackwell.
Oct. 24, 2022 at 5:35 p.m.
#40
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Quoting: Random2152
I think Holl is a 3rd pair dman, and expecting more from him is weird. Yeah, he makes dumb mistakes. He also has some pretty decent upside too and can play up the lineup in a pinch. Not too many 3RDs can offer more than that


I don’t know how he played so good for 19/20 and most of 20/21. But I’m done with him at this point
Oct. 24, 2022 at 7:15 p.m.
#41
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Quoting: Analytics_are_good
I don’t know how he played so good for 19/20 and most of 20/21. But I’m done with him at this point


Won't lie, that is an awful position to take given your qualifier
Oct. 25, 2022 at 12:07 a.m.
#42
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Quoting: palhal
I'll comment on Muzzin. Yeah the contract looks bad. But at the time of signing...believe it was mid February 2020, the NHL had announced that they expected the cap to be 84 to 88 million in 20/21.
Shortly afterwards the Covid lockdowns, and the cap stayed flat.
I've been one to say that the Leafs should have traded Nylander last summer, and his good value contract, and with the cap and get a better balanced lineup.
I even suggested....that maybe Marner should be left exposed in the Seattle expansion draft. Then the Leaf should have 11m to spend better than Marner. But of course you need a good GM and management team, to spend that new found cap wisely, which Dubas, Shanahan and friends probably couldn't do.


You wanted to expose Marner at the expansion draft? That's a horrible idea. You don't expose 90 point, 2 way players in expansion draft just because they are overpaid a tad.
 
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