Dutchies, mate, I think the retention makes this look a little suspect to me. You're looking at a center rotation for St. Louis of Schenn, Thomas and Kerfoot, looks good to be honest on the papers. And O'Reilly is a UFA, so that is obviously a factor. Robertson is a total project to me in this trade, not equating to too much value, so it's UFA Kerfoot, a project, a late 1st rounder and a 4th rounder for Ryan O'Reilly rental with 50% retained. Something says the Leafs win this just a little.

You're right, the Leafs do win.......provided O'reilly performs to his potential. But as a Leafs fan, I've seen how overpaying for a rental is brutally painful. Kerfoot is a cap dump to make room. Robertson and the first for ROR, and the 4th for retention. It looks like STL won't be making the playoffs, so they won't care about the Kerfoot hit. I think Robertson is a top 6 player, but Keefe won't give him the shot. STL can give him that chance for the remainder of the season to feel him out, and still have the first as well if he winds up a mid 6 guy

You're a Leafs fan I believe, based on reading things, I'll take your word on Robertson's potential, I've actually been watching the Leafs a lot this season, but not really seen Robertson. Seems he's had trouble playing his way into the top six really, or is that mistaken? I felt Bennett was never given the proper chance in Calgary, but is this the same thing, or has Robertson not earned the shot to begin with?

Either way, I'll go with the classic argument that the Blues could get more

Good trade. Robertson is nothing like Bennett was in Calgary. Robertson is more like Matthew Phillips a good AHL player but not good enough for the top 6 in the NHL or big/gritty enough for the bottom 6.

I agree that this deal could go any way.

Leafs win if with the help of O'reilly, the Leafs break their first round curse.

Blues win if the Leafs don't break the curse, even if O'reilly is good.

Nobody wins if the Leafs don't break the curse, Kerfoot doesn't resign with St. Louis, and none of the other players pan out.

he's had a few short tastes of the top 6, and IMO did really well. The problem is for some reason Keefe won't keep him in that spot. Puts him there for a couple shifts and then goes back to a guy like Kerfoot for the rest of the game. Put him in STL with guys like Thomas and Kyrou and he'll fly.

You're probably right that the Blues could get more, and since O'Reilly doesn't have a NMC he can't force his way to where he wants to go like Taylor Hall.

Yeah that makes sense.

Considering the poor run Ryan is having this year I think this is fair. Kerfoot and the retain dont matter in this other than cap. This is an injury prone project and a first for a guy with upside whose struggling a bit this year. That's basically how trades work these days. Hope and crossed fingers for hope and crossed fingers.

They lucky to get this out of the trade let alone more lmao

I wouldn't go as far as to say "lucky" to get this much. After looking at and thinking about it again today, the deal does seem in the realm of fair value. It really was the retention that made me backstep, but as a UFA it won't matter as much, as others said.

I wonder what kind of package the Hurricanes could put together for him, and if it would beat this one.

Ryan O'Reilly isn't going to fetch a big return this is about as good an offer as they'll get. He'll be a 2nd or 3rd tier deadline target after names like Horvat, Toews, Kane, etc. There'll be even less interest in O'Reilly if players like PLD or Meier become available too.