Everyone needs to knock it off with the two first rounders + talk. It’s insane

Idk, I think it depends on the other pieces coming back, but I wouldn't be surprised if they only get a 1st+a decent prospect.

The real GMs will get the values right, I'm just wondering how they would get the cap to work.

Unless retention is maxed out, it won’t be a big return

With max retention you should expect the 2023 1st + Holloway + Bourgault at least

Oilers probably won't want to part with Holloway.



Yeah, I agree about the return not being very big. I do think he can get a similar return to Lindholm even though it's a different scenario. There is a ton of risk associated with taking on Karlsson of course, but the Oilers are only doing this move because it has the potential to put them over according to them. So, perhaps it's Barrie+ a 2023 1st+2024 2nd (turns into a first if the Oilers win the cup in the 2024 season) + 2025 2nd.

Max retention is definitely excessive, Karlsson at even 6.5m would have a big return.

Leads NHL in Goals and Assists with 14 points more then the next closest defensman.
He's 5th Overall in NHL scoring and doing so averaging 25 plus for the first time since his major injury/ surgery .
Whats most impressive is his stats are on par with his two other Norris Trophy winning seasons

I'd give up two 1st for him as long as they were not this years or next years.
If MTL could land him in a deal for Gallagher or Anderson with Armia to make the cap work
MTL Guhle not only has the best mentor possible for his style of hockey but also helps elevate the rest of the team due to his ability to Lead the PP unit a the highest levels like really only Sheldon Souray ,Shea Weber and PK Subban have for us in 2000 - now.

As long as they're late 1st giving up 2 -3 isnt that big of deal for right team
OTT ironically would become a real playoff team if Karlsson joined Chabot and have prospects overcrowding at the NHL and AHL levels which could help them avoid giving up picks if they wanted.

Even if you only get 2 years out of Karlsson its worth it and i think the more they Retain the more they get.
Full Salary trades i see being 1 first , conditional 2nd that becomes a 1st if Karlsson wins 1 playoff series, another two 2nd's, Quality Prospect, Middle 6 or #3 Defensman playing in the NHL, and non pure cap dumps to make cap work.

Example

MTL:
1st in 2025
2nd in 2025 conditional 1st in 2024
2nd in 2023 (38th OA MTL)
2nd in 2024 (COL)
Josh Roy OR Sean Farrel OR Lane Hutson (MTL's Top Winger , Center and LD prospect not in the NHL yet)
Gallagher
Edmundson(or Matheson)
Armia or Hoffman

for

Karlsson
And a Contract as SJS is at 49/50 contracts with 5 at the NHL level likely coming off and 6 prospects need qualifying with many others needing new deals after their ELC's. I figure they'd want to move atleast 1 contract like Veil they dont plan on Qualifying .

If SJS RS depending on how much i'd give more.
If they retained 1/4 i'd swap the 2024 2nd for a 1st round pick and add an additional 3rd round pick this year 70th Overall
If they retained 1/2 i'd give them three 1st round picks including FLA's this year 14th overall

If Karlsson was 5 year 11.5m dollar deal we'd be talking about how multiple 1st's arent enough
His cap is still about 2.5m over what his value is at his highest level in my opinion but swapping a Gallagher who's overpaid about the same makes it kosher in my books.
Especially with his first Norris Trophy Caliber Season since what i thought would be a career altering maybe ending injury.
He's shown he's back to that level and now GM's are taking notice

Every one needs to knock It off that JP has any value

TLDR, but ya I have access to hockeydb as well. I know he’s scoring. I don’t think that makes his contract desirable

That’s a very big return

There are teams who are interested in him, some want him as a player, and others want payment for him. So maybe they find a partner, but likely they don't. I wonder if he even gets claimed off waivers if he gets waived. Although, CJ (I think) thinks that if he clears waivers then that would make him more valuable to some teams.

The whole idea of acquiring Karlsson, depends on moving JP though, so doubt a Karlsson trade happens, at least not this season.

If you waived him today he would pass right through. No one is intersted in 3M player who can score with 97 and 29.

Hockey DB?
That's like saying "i want to trade you my Pro Set trading cards for your Upper Deck trading cards.

Hockey Reference is a better source.
It shows you how he effects those on his team and shows in context his growth or decline .
Some stats mean more then others , some stats really dont mean much at all like +/- seemingly created so Defensive Defensman has a positive metric going in their favor as traditionally the stats are always portraying what they do in a negative context .

The point is its about the important stats in production and minutes played
He had a ton of question marks since injured with people thinking he'd never be Norris Trophy caliber again.
He showed up this year on a rebuilding team and put the league on notice producing as a top 5 NHL scorer.
Teams are now more willing to risk taking on his Contract

It's a significant return, but it's reasonable. If he was in his prime at 8.25m, he's netting way more than that. He's 31 and signed for 4 more years and has a full-NMC and that contract could become an albatross contract any year, but he's still a top 2 OFD now and probably going to win the Norris. So, it's up to Holland at the end of the day to decide if the risk is worth the cost, but the cost is reasonable.

This is just like offering an older player a huge contract with an 8-year term.

I don't disagree.

If they get lucky though, it's possible that a team may take him at no cost. A team like Tampa could be interested him for a bottom-6 role, the issue would be fitting him under their cap, and with the Oilers unable to retain on guys if they want to make deals.

In the mock trade, the 4th is for Bjugstad. I'm sure Arizona would want a 3rd or something like that, but at the end of the day, if this is happening at TDL day, they are going to take whatever they can get for him. The Oilers do need to move JP asap though, but I think he's just going to get sent down along with another player and sit in the minors.