Only way SJ retains that much is if another team is involved. Grier has already stated emphatically that he won't handcuff the Sharks cap more than it already is. For this much retention the return would have to be overwhelmingly excellent. Grier also said he is more than happy to keep Erik.

Erik never requested a trade.

4 million max retention on EK.

Edmonton has no business trading Bouchard or Bourgault.

Good then you'll only see 18% retention. Simple as that.

Yeah, I don't see a path to a trade with the Oilers unless it's done in the 2023-24 off-season. Maybe before if EDM can dump some guys like Foegele, then they would need less retention. I don't see why a 3rd team would be incentivized to retain anything on 4 more years on Karlsson.

This is basically what 5m retention would look like for the Sharks:

The Sharks will be on the hook for ~17m/39m of Karlsson's contract.
Barrie is owed 5m in salaries next year.

If they can sign Bouchard for 4.25mx4+, then it would be like they turned Karlsson at 11.5mx4 cap hit and 39m in future salaries into Bouchard 9.25mx4 + Barrie 4.5x1 + JP+ 2023 1st + Bourgault

Sharks would take dumps like Foegele, JP etc. But I can't see this trade happening without getting BOTH of Bourgault and Broberg/Bouchard back. Sharks biggest holes prospect wise are RHD and Bigger players. Eklund and Bordeleau are great but both small. As is Robins and Gushchin. It's why they drafted Bystedt over Lambert. (also Bystedt is better)

I made this one based on the trade being in 2023, since both teams are up to the limits on cap and roster spots it will be difficult lol. If Meier gets traded, I'm sure the Sharks are retaining and/or taking a contract back too.

I'll try to see later if they can maybe get a trade done with 18-25% retention for the 2023-24 season.

Sharks have only two retention spots left. Presumably both would be used on Karl and Timo. But Grier never ruled out keeping either of them. Might be just a negotiating tactic.

Cap dumps are in the deals to balance out the money. they have no value on the return for EK65. If you want 20M in retention then you are talking 2 1sts and 2 top prospects

I'm just going off of some Oilers writers suggestion of 3 1sts in value, which was the ask for 18% retention I believe.

Very plausible trade based on what some of the most plugged-in journalists in hockey are reporting, including Elliott Friedman, Frank Seravalli, Bob Stauffer, Jason Gregor, Darren Dreger, and others. Definitely more plugged in than the Sharks fans commenting. Bouchard is the key piece and Bourgault is a blue-chip prospect. Both could be the foundation of the rebuild in SJ.
"At age 23, Erik Karlsson had 37 5v5 points in 1621 TOI (1.37 P/60). That's a very high production rate for a defender at that age. At age 21, Evan Bouchard had 31 5v5 points in 1308 TOI (1.42 P/60)." - @NHL_Sid
Could substitute Yamamoto for Puljujarvi if SJ feels they can trade him next year for a pick as he has a year left. My guess is they would prefer to gain the cap space for nothing after this season, or sign Puljujarvi as a project at a lower AAV.

For next year, maybe but I feel like it requires too many moving pieces to happen this year. Both teams are up against the cap right now. SJ is trying to trade guys like Meier, Bonino, and Riemer. If they all get moved without a contract coming back (other than the prospects for Meier) then things could be easier. I think though we might see a 6-8 man trade if this is going to happen.

The retention could also be a major obstacle, 18% is really all that should technically need to be retained on Meier. Friedman figures Karlsson needs to come in at the 6s-7s. Zmach did an ACGM that looked pretty good with Karlsson at 7.5m but will they want to retain up to ~35%, who knows. In terms of salary the Sharks would be saving for future years at least, I didn't take into account this year.

yes at 18% retention but assuming you go to 50% almost Grier is going to need an out of this world offer to accept it. its not just 5M its 4 yrs of a slot.

Yeah that's true, but I think with SJ already having all those long contracts, and dead cap, they won't be weaponizing their cap in the same way as other teams. So, it's really about getting something out of Karlsson's value and not the slot. It is 4 years though, so they need to be mindful of not costing themselves by taking on too much dead cap.