Quoting: Book_Hockey
Because he’s better than any of the players that you’ve mentioned
there's a ton of numbers that disagree with you buddy. I think Key's a great player, for sure, I just think your valuation on him is completely out of line with how the NHL works.
to expand on the Sergachev comp: Mikhail had played 3 full NHL seasons by the time he signed his extension, scoring 40, 32, & 34 points in them. He added in another 17 over 46 playoff games, and, again, played nearly 23 minutes a night on the Lightning team that won the Cup in 2019-20. He signed a 3x$4.8M bridge deal entering his age-22 season.
Miller scored a combined 32 points over 135 GP in his first 2 NHL seasons before getting 41 (so far) this year. He's got 7 points in 20 playoff GP to date, and while he still may win a Cup in his ELC, I think Boston and Carolina are going to make it incredibly difficult to do that. But even if he does, he'll have worse offensive production paired with worse defensive/possession numbers than Sergachev had during his ELC, while also being a year older at the time he signs his extension.
So seeing as the cap is more or less in the same place it was prior to the 2020-21 season when Sergachev signed his bridge deal, do you have any other reasons as to why Miller would sign for a higher AAV, higher than any bridge contract for a defenseman in recent memory? Would love to hear it.