Quoting: ChucktheFNG
I came here to talk about the Hayes trade, so I will do that first. But that Severson contract hate is completely undeserved.
I think The Jackets would prefer to not move the 2nd rounder (especially if they think a top G prospect is still on the board there; Hrabel please) and would to prefer to move forwards. I would at least make sure the players were the guys Torts liked when he was there. I think Foudy, Bemstrom, and a 2023 third would be my counter proposal for Hayes retained down to $5 million AAV.
For the Severson deal: It's not good, but it is probably realistic. All defensemen walking into Free Agency are going to catch big money in a bidding war this year and I think Severson can take real advantage of the real shortage on the RHD market. You may have given him an overpay of something like $500,000, but that may be what it takes to get a good RHD to go to a team who isn't quite ready to compete. To be honest, I think NJ will choose to keep him over Graves because finding a capable replacement is going to be more difficult. Any GM who doesn't expect second pairing guys to get overpaid is going to leave the Free Agency period without one.
I would certainly accept that offer for Hayes - it seems like a win for each team. This also hinges on Hayes performance up to the all star break this year, and in the time period he came back from his injury last year at the end of the year, the last 20 or so games. Kevin Hayes is a solid 2C in this league, especially with the retained money and his cap hit going down to 5mm. He is very well capable of playing in all situations, well I might add, and outside of this year, has an above average 200 foot game. This adds some insurance for guys on your team who may be either under producing or not living up to the potential, or maybe just not even ready. There are several guys that fit that criteria. Additionally, you cannot downplay the boost it would give to not only Hayes to play with JG, but also vice versa.
Lastly, thanks for the Severson commentary, how people don't understand the simple facts you listed is beyond me. Taking into account all of those factors (weak FA class, RHD, under performing/not ready to compete team, it's what you would need to do to get him here.
I would agree with you though, would be crazy for the Devils to give up on him, but if he does chase the money, I think the offer starts here, maybe 5.5mm at worst.