Edited May 15, 2023 at 6:29 p.m.
Quoting: Skyraider112
Every year between the ages of 15-23 are big for developing players, forwards more so in that range. D keep develop slower so around 25-26 and goalies until around 29-30. My point being a forward prospect takes a massive leap in development every season from 15-20, and usually smaller but still important steps for a few years after those. So if two players have the same output in the same league but one is one year older, the younger player is more impressive by a significant margin. At least that's how I see it. Imagine someone like Bedard. If he could have played on Chicago this past season at 17 years of age I'd bet he still would have been able to put up 40-50 points in the NHL. Now with his upcoming season at 18 I'm gonna guess he'll be around 70-80 points. That's a huge difference.
Yes, I’m constantly education ppl here about how forwards develop & peak faster than D-Men and Goalies, but there’s lots of considerations here
How bout their size. Holtz is listed at 6ft/192lbs while Pelletier is only 5’9/165lbs. Takes a lot of guys time to fill out. Bedard has an advantage as well being 5’10/185lbs already
Next would be rink size and physicality. Int’l ice is much bigger, so there’s more space to work with and less hitting, whereas it’s a tighter closer and more physical game here in North America. The QJMHL is more of a high offence and less physical and defensive game, but Pelletier had the advantage of playing in tighter spaces
My point is there’s so many considerations, but your first year in any league is usually challenging, but especially professional hockey, even and including the AHL where you’re playing against men the same size or bigger than you. They’re either prospects on the same road you are, experienced fringe player or former NHL’ers, so although it’s not the best in the world, it’s a bigger, stronger, substantially more physical league that both would have to adjust too and did exceptionally well
Again, my expectation of Holtz is much higher given his size and draft position, but your points are all valid as well
As for guys picked 1st overall, they’re typically phenoms, so can skip the AHL, but not always. Slafkovsky has amazing size, but needs time to adjust to the North American game, same goes for Nemec. You’re right that Bedard is likely already NHL Ready though, so will start in the Big League right away